Feels like a magic carpet ride, doesn't it? Three straight dominant performances, three straight games with 38 points scored (still on pace for an NFL record 606 points in a season), and three straight games where there "risky off-season moves" have all paid off handsomely. The Pats pasted Buffalo, 38-7, and now have a two-game lead over the New York Jets and a three-game lead over the rest of the AFC East. The only fly in the ointment right now is that their opponents are a combined 2-7, so the Pats *should* be 3-0 at this juncture. We'll see how it goes when they play the good teams on their schedule: Dallas, Indy, surprising Washington, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. The offense is just humming along. They even overcame a stupid penalty (Laurence Maroney's spike of the ball), a stupid turnover (Tom Brady on the QB sneak near the goal line), and a stupid lateral (Wes Welker didn't need to do it with the game well in control). Brady had the highest passer rating of his career (150.9), but it wasn't really his best performance. He had a few passes behind open receivers and a few that were thrown too low to be caught. His main targets were still Randy Moss (5 catches for 115 yards and 2 more touchdowns) and Wes Welker (6 for 69). Kevin Faulk was the mystery guest to the passing game and had some terrific runs after a few of his 5 catches (for 38 yards). Faulk was especially effective on a screen pass and in converting third-downs. But for all the gushing over Randy Moss and the passing game, the Pats ran more than they threw (38 to 29). That differential gave them almost 9 extra minutes of possession time (34:19 to 25:41), and allowed them to control the game with a balanced attack. Maroney had the second 100-yard game of his career (19 carries for 103), and he seemed to hit the hole more quickly than usual. And of course, none of this could happen without stellar play from the offensive line. They gave up one sack and only a few pressures, and paved the way for 9.5 yards per pass and 4.7 yards per rush. And that is even more impressive when you realize their starting Right Guard was out (Stephen Neal was replaced by Russ Hochstein). On the season, the offense has scored 13 touchdowns and lost only 2 turnovers (1 fumble and 1 interception) -- which is pretty much domination personified in the NFL. Defensively, it was a complete mismatch. Buffalo QB J. P. Losman went out early, and his backup didn't perform well at all (a pathetic 65 net yards passing and 1.7 yards per pass play). The front seven blew up most plays before they really got started, and the secondary covered well when the Bills got time. Jarvis Green had the best game of the linemen, and I thought Junior Seau was surprisingly effective when he was in there. The Bills did gain some traction on the ground, but aside from their one scoring drive, I think that was largely due to the Patriots defense playing mostly against the pass. Ellis Hobbs had a very good day in the secondary, notching his first NFL sack (and causing a fumble on the play), making a solid knock-down in the passing game and blowing up a few outside running plays. Asante Samuel is rounding into form, too -- with some solid coverage play and his first INT of the year. But the real revelation of the game was the play of James Sanders. He didn't get a ton of tackles, but his was instrumental in stopping the Bills short passing game. Several times, he forced plays back inside so a teammate could make the tackle, and his best play was where he shut down a screen pass before it could get going, stopping the Bills on third down and forcing a punt. With Sanders playing better, it's possible Eugene Wilson could be on the bench when Rodney Harrison returns. Special teams were pretty special. Wes Welker continues to impress on punt returns (3 returns for 72 yards), and the Pats contained the dangerous Bills return teams. The punter hasn't been great, but he's only kicked four times this year, which isn't really a large enough sample to judge him. Also, it seems like they are babying Stephen Gostkowski, in this game, that meant going for the first down instead of trying a make-able 41-yard field goal early. I hope that isn't because they are worried that he can't kick from that far; but I note for the record that this is exactly how they treated him last year, and he was 8 of 8 in the playoffs. The coaches didn't make any mistakes or cause any distractions this week. In fact, it seems the team was lethargic after their drubbing of the Chargers, and Belichick rode them hard for three days to keep them sharp. Whatever he did, it worked to perfection. So where does that leave us? Well, the Pats are sitting pretty at 3-0, and they've got a Monday Night game next week in Cincinnati. They beat the Bengals last year, and I don't think think Cincy has improved enough to overcome the deficiencies exposed in that game. So I expect they will win that game, although the Bengals do have the offensive firepower to hang with the Pats, if the game becomes a shoot-out. Statistical Oddity of the Week: Tom Brady completed 79.3% of his passes on Sunday, and his completion percentage for the season went *down*. I would venture to guess that no QB in NFL history has ever had that high a percentage in one game actually bring down his season percentage. (PS, I refuse to research this, because I just can't imagine it ever happened before. So if you can find an example, let me know and I'll apologize next week.) Statistical Oddity of the Week 2: You've no doubt heard the Pats have scored 38 points in each game so far this year. What you probably don't realize is that next week, they travel to Cincinnati, where they scored... you guessed it... 38 points against the Bengals last year. This was just too good not to have a second Oddity this week. Funniest Line of the Week: My friend Al asked me what they trade for Randy Moss. I told him it was a fourth-round pick, and he retorted, "Man... that was *way* too much." Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Pats are looking good, but their opponents so far are only 2-7 on the year. Wake me when they beat a decent team, *then* we'll really know where they stand." Keep the faith, - Scott PS. 3-0!
Who needs the defensive signals when your offense can move the ball at will without 'em? The Pats dominated the Chargers 38-14, and played as if this game somehow validated their recent successes all by itself. They played with a chip on their shoulders the size of Gillette Stadium, and stuffed LaDainian Tomlinson (last year's MVP gained only 43 yards) and shut down boy-wonder QB Phillip Rivers to the tune of a paltry 74.2 QB rating (compared to Brady's 123.0 QB rating). The win vaulted the Patriots 2-0, and gave them a two-game lead in the division, as all of their AFC East "competitors" dropped to 0-2. Not bad for a night when I thought they might struggle without Rodney Harrison. The offense was even more impressive this week, because the Chargers have a better defense than the Jets. Brady kicked butt (even though he faced more pressure against San Diego), with 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, and an 80% completion rate. And his main receivers are playing to their strengths perfectly: Wes Welker (8 catches for 91 yards) makes great moves after the catch and always gets extra yards, Randy Moss (8 for 105 and 2 TDs) stretches the field and the constant double-teaming opens things up for the rest of the offense, and Ben Watson (5, for 49 and 1 TD) makes tough catches over the middle and blocks almost as well at Daniel Graham did. And Watson and Moss were both wide, wide open for touchdowns, which tells you the play-call and the protection were both excellent. The O-line played well enough, although they gave up two sacks and some QB pressures. The Pats spread the field early and the line did a good job holding their blocks as the Pats ran ten consecutive passes to start the game. Once the Chargers were on their heels, Laurence Maroney (15 carries for 77 yards) and Sammy Morris (10 for 51) started running, and when San Diego couldn't stop that, the game was essentially over. At that point, it was 14-0 and time of possession stood at 9:34 to 1:31 and that differential would stand throughout the game. On defense, my favorite player right now is Mike Vrabel. He's leading the NFL in sacks (3.5), and it's amazing how he can get the edge on a 350 lb. lineman and somehow get to the QB. Adalius Thomas got an INT and returned it down the sideline for a touchdown, out-running a wide receiver in the process -- yikes! He also had several stops for a loss against Tomlinson and another pass defensed. Rosevelt Colvin was a bit more up-and-down, with some great plays and a few bad reads against the run. But thankfully, Tedy Bruschi had a very solid game, and I'm hoping that helps him turn the corner on what's been a run of mediocrity. The D-line was stout, holding Tomlinson to 2.4 yards a carry and applying nearly continuous pressure to Rivers. It's clear that Jarvis "he could start for a lot of teams" Green is the real deal, and Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork were their normal solid selves. Santonio Thomas played well in relief of Vince, with both Mike Wright and Kareem Brown out. The secondary played a mixed game, with some bad defensive plays (hello Ellis Hobbs and James Sanders) followed by great defensive plays (hello Ellis Hobbs and James Sanders again). Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel, and Randall Gay were more in the "no bad plays and no great plays" category. Fortunately, the Chargers wideouts just aren't that dangerous. As for special teams, I think they've got some work to do. Ellis Hobbs fumbled a kickoff return and Stephen Gostkowski had only average distance on his kickoffs and he missed a 40-yard field goal. Also, there are too many guys trying to do too much on kickoff coverage, and if not for two saving tackles by Eric Alexander, they would have given up huge kickoff returns. On the plus side, they also had some nifty punt returns and stopped the Chargers cold in punt coverage. Overall... like I said, they have some work to do. On coaching, it was all Patriots all the time. They barely beat the Chargers last year, and San Diego hired a new coaching staff in the off-season. The result was utter domination by the Patriots, from the brilliant offensive gameplan to the near perfect defensive execution. Head coach Bill Belichick thanked the fans in his post-game comments, but it's really us who should thank him. He is one of the greatest minds in the history of the game, and we're lucky to have him on our side. Bob Kraft recognized that when he (reportedly) extended BB's contract for another six-years. Videotape or none, there is no coach I'd rather have on my sideline. So where does that leave us? Well, at 2-0 and 2 games ahead in the division, things couldn't be going much better. Next week's opponent is the division rival Buffalo Bills, who are reeling from a last-minute loss to Denver and a destruction at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bills are certain to be desperate for a win, and they almost pulled off an upset win in Foxboro last year. But I don't think they have the talent to challenge the Patriots, so 3-0 is a strong possibility. Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots played games that ended with the exact same score two weeks in a row (38-14). The last time that happened was 30 years ago, in weeks 2 and 3 of the 1977 season, when they lost back-to-back road games to Cleveland and the New York Jets (30-27). Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Did you know the Pats are on pace to score over 600 points this year? And I think this offense is just getting started!" Keep the faith, - Scott PS. 2-0!
What a difference a year makes! In last year's playoffs, the Patriots trounced the Jets 37-16. And after months of off-season work, player releases, player signings, new systems put in place, and Sopranos appearances, the Patriots trounced the Jets 38-14. And it wasn't nearly as close as last year's tilt, which tells you which team *really* improved since last year and which one is headed for 8-8. The Pats controlled this one from the start, running the ball at will against an undersized Jets defense and then passing at will when they overloaded against the run. If you include Ellis Hobbs's NFL-record 108-yard kickoff return, the Patriots averaged 82 yards per touchdown drive (without it, the average was a "paltry" 75.5 per touchdown drive). The Jets had no answers, and they don't have the offense to come from behind, so this one was over when Hobbs made it 21-7 to open the second half. The offensive line was absolutely superb. Zero sacks give up, hardly any quarterback pressure, nice running holes early and late, and beautiful blitz pickup. Need more proof? None other than Peter King (of Sports Illustrated) named the Patriots starting O-line as his offensive players of the week. And as you would expect, with all that time and no pressure, Brady was a killer (22 of 28 for 297 yards, 3 TDs and no INTs), often waiting 5 or 6 seconds before throwing. He connected with Wes Welker four times in the first quarter (including a touchdown), then switched to Randy Moss, who caught a mere 9 throws for 183 yards. Maybe he can play after all. The running game was dominant when it had to be, even though the game average was only 3.6 yards a carry. Laurence Maroney (70 yards) and Sammy Morris (54) emerged as more of a two-headed monster than the pre-season would have indicated. Maroney can make guys miss and turn losses into gains, whereas Morris can bowl guys over and has a nice burst of speed when he reaches the second level of the defense. Between those two and the great blocking and passing game, the Pats did pretty much whatever they wanted. In fact, if Wes Welker hadn't dropped a third-down pass, they could have ended the day with zero punts. And *that* would have been impressive. The defensive front seven didn't disappoint, either. Jarvis Green (in for the injured Richard Seymour) and Mike Vrabel (back at outside linebacker) sacked Jets QB Chad Pennington 4.5 times between them, and Vrabel forced a fumble. There was constant pressure on the QB, with only the quick passes getting off before the D-line crushed the pocket. Adalius Thomas had a stellar day in pass coverage, knocking down several passes and redirecting other receivers. And the Jets big off-season pickup was running back Thomas Jones, who sputtered his way to three yards a carry and 42 yards on the ground against the Pats front seven. However, I am officially starting to worry about Tedy Bruschi -- he looked lost on some plays and overmatched on others. And Junior Seau needs to get off the field faster when the offense is trying to catch him off-guard. He got two encroachment penalties while trying to get to the sideline. The secondary was a bit more uneven than the front seven. Ellis Hobbs had one pass defensed but not much else, and Eugene Wilson still isn't ready to take over calling the defense from Rodney Harrison. Several times, the secondary looked confused just before the snap, and once it cost them a touchdown. Oh, and the other touchdown came when Asante "Get Paid" Samuel couldn't cover his man for five yards -- sheesh! As for special teams, it was an up-and-down day. Very good kick coverage, a 108-yard kickoff return, and then a botched hold on a field goal. Backup QB Matt Cassel may have lost his only job on the team with the bobble, but on the whole, the special teams were very solid and/or spectacular. I thought Kelley Washington (#15) played very well on coverage; he was in or near almost every tackle in the kicking game. A great signing this off-season. And the coaching was beyond reproach on this one. They spent their first-half timeouts too quickly, but overall had a great plan and it was well-executed. Dean Pees is the real deal as a defensive coordinator, and Josh McDaniels couldn't have done much better than he did. So where does that leave us? 1-0 and atop the AFC East all by ourselves. The rest of the division lost their first game, so the Pats are at the top of the heap for now. This game didn't really tell us much; they should have beaten the Jets and did. Next week against San Diego (in Foxboro) will be a much sterner test. In my blockbuster Season Preview email, I predicted the Pats would lose to the Chargers. We'll see how it goes, but the loss of Rodney Harrison will hurt more this coming Sunday than it did last Sunday. Statistical Oddity of the Week: Randy Moss's 183 yards are the third-highest total for receiving yards in a game in Patriots history. Not bad for a first game, eh? Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "C'mon, you didn't really expect them to lose to the Jets, did you? Call me if they can beat the Chargers this week -- *that* will be something." Keep the faith, - Scott PS. 1-0!
Hi all, Apparently rolling Patriots *do* gather Moss. Get it, haaaahaaaahaaaa -- GET IT?!?!?!?! High comedy, that. Since I didn't write an off-season email, this update will include the important things that have happened since the end of last year. Does that mean it might be long? My only guarantee is that it will be longer than a haiku and shorter than "War and Peace." It has certainly been an interesting off-season, with the Pats being major players in free agency and draft-day trades. To know how much things have changed, consider the following fact: the Patriots opened at 12-1 odds to win next year's Super Bowl, but by the time the draft was over, they were heavy favorites at 2-1 to win it. A lot of time, effort, money, and changes went into that swing, and here are the ones I think were the most important, and how much those changes might have improved their play from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. (As always, if you're sick of slogging through these emails, just drop me a note and I'll take your name off the list. - Scott) THE "O" Quarterback: 9.0 at the end of 2006, 10.0 to start 2007. I thought Brady was burnt out at the end of last year, possibly from having to break in an almost entirely new set of less-than-stellar wideouts. It didn't help that his running backs were injured most of the year (more on that later) and that his sub-par receivers revolved in-and-out of the lineup every week. Consider that even though the team went 12-4, Brady's performance dropped significantly from 2005 when they were 10-6. The improvement from 9.0 to 10.0 is due in large part to what's around him. I don't fault him for last year; after Deion Branch said, "Show me the money," the front office never gave him the talent needed to make another run to the Super Bowl. Running Back: 3.0 at the end of 2006, 6.0 to start 2006. Rookie Laurence Maroney played like a rookie last year, flashes of brilliance and too many injuries. Corey Dillon played like a ten-year veteran, a bit slower than in years past and less able to shoulder the load. The reason they were rated at 3.0 last year is that by the end of the campaign, they were both injured, leaving Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans to run the ball. And the results were predictable; they ran for less than 100 yards in the AFC Championship game and Evans committed a crucial "12 men in the huddle" penalty near the end of the game.The improvement stems from Maroney's health and the addition of Sammy Morris (from the Dolphins). Morris is a better backup than Dillon would have been, and this leaves Faulk in his more effective third-down running back position. If they had more quality depth, they'd be a 7.5 instead; but if Maroney goes down, it would hurt almost as much as if Brady did.Tight End: 3.0 at the end of 2006, 3.5 to start 2007.Simply put, if Ben Watson doesn't have a breakout year, that 3.5 might be headed lower. The Pats essentially replaced non-receiving-but-amazing-blocker Daniel Graham with his twin from Jacksonville, Kyle Brady. I'm not expecting big things from David Thomas, and Marcellus Rivers (one of the better pre-season performers) ended up on the practice squad.You might see more production out of the tight end position this year, but that will mostly be because the improvement at wide receiver could open up the middle of the field. Speaking of which...Wide Receiver: 3.0 at the end of 2006, 7.5 to start 2007.At the end of last year, the Pats receivers were among the most feared in the NFL -- feared by Patriots fans everywhere. So Reche Caldwell (who led the team last year) is gone; possibly great Randy Moss and possibly great Donte Stallworth were added; possibly mediocre Kelly Washington was added; possibly most important of all, Wes Welker (a.k.a. Troy Brown II) was added.Welker gives them a threat over the middle and relieves Laurence Maroney in the kick return game, and Moss and Stallworth will both demand double-teaming if they're healthy. That should open things up for the tight ends and running game. But all of this hinges on the health of Moss and Stallworth (Moss missed the entire pre-season, and Stallworth missed 3 games last year and had only 38 receptions for the season). Both will start the season, and as they improve their timing with Brady, this number could be 8.5 or 9.0 in no time.Offensive Line: 6.5 at the end of 2006, 7.0 to start 2007.No real change, with the exception of some players being healthy now. The line was not a problem, nor was it a great strength of the team last year. I expect an improved running attack, due to an improved receiving corps that will force teams to play soft against the run. But I don't expect the team to dominate teams at the line of scrimmage.THE "D" Safety: 3.0 at the end of 2006, 4.0 to start 2007.At the end of last year, both Eugene Wilson and Rodney Harrison were sidelined. This year, Harrison will serve a four-game suspension to start the year, and Wilson will be teamed with James Sanders (who started in the playoffs). The slight up-tick is mostly a nod to Wilson being better than Artrell Hawkins (starter at the end of last year, recently released by the Pats) and better depth with first-round pick Brandon Merriweather in the fold.When Harrison returns (for the Browns game on 10/7), this number will go from 4.0 to maybe 7.0. He makes that much of a difference.Cornerback: 6.5 at the end of 2006, 7.5 to start 2007.There really isn't any change in personnel, just a change in experience and some better health. Ellis Hobbs and Asante Samuel (both starters at the end of last year) will start against the Jets, with Randall Gay and veteran Tory James backing them up. Rookie Brandon Merriweather has gotten significant practice and playing time at cornerback, but this rating is mostly about Asante Samuel reporting to camp, what I expect to be another year of improvement from Ellis Hobbs and a healthy year for Randall Gay (who actually started in their last Super Bowl victory -- in case you'd forgotten).Outside Linebacker: 7.5 at the end of 2006, 9.0 to start 2007.In case you hadn't heard, the Patriots got the jewel of the free agent class with Adalius Thomas, linebacker from the Ravens. He played mostly inside during the pre-season, but versatility is the key to his game, so I expect he'll play some inside and some outside during the regular season. And the team was helped by the release of Tully Banta-Cain, who was exposed as a very, very poor man's Willie McGinest.In any event, if Thomas plays outside, that improves the pass rush. If he plays inside, that allows Mike Vrabel to play his more natural outside position. Either way, the outside crew is improved from last year, and with Rosevelt Colin on the other side, should be one of the most respected in the NFL.Inside Linebacker: 2.5 at the end of 2006, 8.5 to start 2007.Let's be honest about this, Tedy Bruschi had one of his worst years in 2006. Hardly any big plays, running backs bowling him over, tight ends and running backs getting open against him. One possible reason? Turns out he broke his wrist the opening game, and played hurt the entire year. So I expect he'll be better this year; although he is getting older and might never reach the heights he did from 2001 - 2004. At the end of last year, his teammate inside was Eric Alexander, who was repeatedly torched against the Colts and showed that he needs more seasoning.Added for this year are Thomas and some guy named Junior Seau, who was playing very well last year until he broke his arm against the Bears. The addition of both Thomas and Seau make this the most improved position on the team. And teams will have to contend with big problems against the front seven because the defensive line is... well, just read on.Exterior Defensive Line: 9.5 at the end of 2006, 8.5 to start 2007.Ty Warren and Richard Seymour make one of the best outside linemen tandems in the NFL. Factor in veteran backups Jarvis Green and Mike Wright, along with new addition Le Kevin Smith (pronounced "Leh Kee-vin Smith" -- don't ask me why), this unit should be dominant. So why the downgrade? Turns out Seymour is recovering from off-season surgery, and won't start the season with the team. But with Green, Wright, and Smith in there, they should hold down the fort nicely until Richard returns.BTW, don't tell Richard I said so, but Ty Warren had a better 2006 season than he did. But promise you won't tell -- Richard could still grind me into dust and sweep me out with the cat litter.Interior Defensive Line: 8.5 at the end of 2006, 9.0 to start 2007.Vince Wilfork anchors the defensive line from the middle. He'll never have the big stats, but his job is to clog up the middle on running plays and collapse the pocket on passing plays. He isn't the best in the game, but I thought he merited Pro Bowl consideration last year (i.e. he was one of the best three at his position). The slight increase in rating is mostly due to the addition of Le Kevin Smith (who can play both inside and outside).Note: a moment of silence for last year's backup, Marquise Hill, who was killed in an off-season jet ski accident in New Orleans........................................................ Thank you.Special Teams: 6.0 at the end of 2006, 7.5 to start 2007.There's a lot to talk about on special teams. I don't usually put much stock in the pre-season, but the Patriots overloaded the line twice against Carolina to block field goal attempts, and there didn't seem to be much the Panthers could do about it. I like that kind of fire and effort; and it could pay off if the Pats have found something that could work against other teams.Also in the pre-season, I saw Larry Izzo making big play after big play, and there was a lot of competition at punter. Former Pro Bowl punter, Chris Hanson, won the job, and promptly dropped a kick in at the two yard line in the last pre-season game.Additionally, the Pats brought in Wes Welker, who should be an improvement over the return men from the end of last year, Troy Brown and Ellis Hobbs. Welker will also relieve Laurence Maroney from having to return kickoffs, which is important as the running back becomes a featured performer on offense.Lastly, kicker Stephen Gostkowski didn't have a great pre-season, converting only 4 of 8 field goals -- although he booted the hell out of the ball on kickoffs. I think the unit is improved as a whole, but that 4 of 8 worries me a little bit.Coaching: 8.5 at the end of 2006, 9.0 to start 2007.The coaching was about as good as you could expect last year. Given the lack of talent at wide receiver and the injuries to their linebackers, the Pats went about as far as they could reasonably be expected to go. (Note: the injuries to Harrison and Seau just killed them in the playoffs.) They out-smarted themselves by using Eric Alexander instead of Tully Banta-Cain against the Colts. But for the most part, they pushed all the right buttons and came within a few plays of going to another Super Bowl.There were no major coaching changes, although the influx of talented players might make them look a lot better than they did last year. I think both Dean Pees and Josh McDaniels will benefit from another year of seasoning. And keep an eye on the Cleveland Browns situation. If they fire Romeo Crennel, no doubt the Pats would gladly take him as an "Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Consultant" for the remainder of the year.So what does it all boil down to? Well, the average score at the end of 2006 was 5.88; and the average score to start 2007 is 7.42. That's serious improvement, and most importantly, they improved where they needed to -- at wide receiver and linebacker.I do worry how the team would handle the loss of Tom Brady or Laurence Maroney, but all teams face injuries and have to find a way through them. With the coaching staff and players they have in place, I expect the Pats would handle that kind of adversity better than most.THE SKEDSo finally, here's my breakdown of how the schedule is likely to go for the Pats. And as usual, I broke it down into four, four-game quarters of the season.The season starts in New York, and I think the Pats will win, because what they kept under wraps in the pre-season is probably better than what the Jets kept under wraps. San Diego then comes to town, with revenge on their mind (from last year's playoff upset) and an entirely new coaching staff. Without Harrison and Seymour, I think the Pats will have to win a shootout, and Moss hasn't gotten enough practice with the first team, so put down a loss. The Pats should handle Buffalo at home the next week (especially since the Bills have a tough season opening schedule), and they destroyed Cincinnati at home last year, so I expect they'll at least beat the Bengals in Cincy the week after.I don't see how the Cleveland Browns can beat us, so that's another win. After that, it's off to Dallas, a team that is historically always overrated. The Cowboys don't have a tough schedule around that time, and they usually beat the Pats (they're 7-2 lifetime against New England); but I don't see how the Pats talent won't overwhelm them. The October 21 tilt in Miami has all the benchmarks of a loss: division road game, against a team that gives Brady fits, and their two longest road trips back-to-back. But the Dolphins QB situation is a mess and both Harrison and Seymour should be back by then. So call me crazy, but I'm putting it in as a win (and keeping my fingers crossed). The Pats will finish the second-quarter of the season with a possible trap game (sandwiched between division-rival Miami and perennial-rival Indianapolis) against Washington. If Joe Gibbs's team had a QB, I might predict a win for them, but they don't, so I won't -- it should be another W for the Pats.The third-quarter starts with one of those matchups of the year, Pats vs. Colts. Indy has an horrific schedule before and after that game (a division game at Jax, at Carolina, the Pats game, and then at San Deigo). The Pats get a walk-through with Washington, play the Colts, and then have a bye week. Moss, Stallworth, and Brady should be in sync by then, and Indy has lost too many defensive players -- so put it down as a likely victory. After the bye week, the Pats shuffle off to Buffalo, in a classic trap game -- for the Bills, that is. The Pats should win that one. The Pats should be able to beat Philly at home, but the Eagles have a pretty easy slate of games around that time. However, Baltimore will be in the meat of a very tough run. Normally, I might expect the Pats to beat Philly and lose to Baltimore; but based on the opponents schedule, I'll flip-flop that.The fourth-quarter begins with an intriguing one: at home on a short week against Pittsburgh. The Steelers have a tough schedule at that time, but they don't have the short week. However, the Pats obliterated the defense that was run by new Steelers head coach (the Pats torched Mike Tomlin's defense for 31 points in Minnesota last year). But in the end, it's the short week that will probably cost the Pats... put 'em down for another loss. The last three should be a victory lap for the Patriots. The Jets come to town to get beaten again, the Dolphins never play well in the cold, and the Giants just aren't good enough (although the Pats could lose that one if the game means nothing to them and everything to the Giants).Add it all up, and it's a 13-3 record -- or 14-2 if they beat the Steelers or 12-4 if they lose in Miami. Any of those records should get them a division title and 13-3 or 14-2 gets them a first-round bye. Are my expectations too lofty? I don't think so. The Pats were within spitting distance of another Super Bowl appearance (and likely win) last year, and they've added talent and depth to their most problematic positions (wide receiver and linebacker). Brady's health is, as always, of paramount importance; but add to that Laurence Maroney's health for this year. Sammy Morris should be a fine backup, but Maroney has to be the man or it could be trouble.Hope this helps you enjoy the season, and I'll check in every week with new (and hopefully more interesting) stuff during the regular year.Statistical Oddity of the Week: Exactly one half of the Patriots games are against 2006 playoff teams (8 out of 16). That is the highest number in the NFL this year.Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Richard Seymour can be replaced for a few games, but the loss of Rodney [Harrison] for the first month could hurt a lot more."Keep the faith, - Scott PS. 0-0!
Hi all, Apparently rolling Patriots *do* gather Moss. Get it, haaaahaaaahaaaa -- GET IT?!?!?!?! High comedy, that. Since I didn't write an off-season email, this update will include the important things that have happened since the end of last year. Does that mean it might be long? My only guarantee is that it will be longer than a haiku and shorter than "War and Peace." It has certainly been an interesting off-season, with the Pats being major players in free agency and draft-day trades. To know how much things have changed, consider the following fact: the Patriots opened at 12-1 odds to win next year's Super Bowl, but by the time the draft was over, they were heavy favorites at 2-1 to win it. A lot of time, effort, money, and changes went into that swing, and here are the ones I think were the most important, and how much those changes might have improved their play from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. (As always, if you're sick of slogging through these emails, just drop me a note and I'll take your name off the list. - Scott) THE "O" Quarterback: 9.0 at the end of 2006, 10.0 to start 2007. I thought Brady was burnt out at the end of last year, possibly from having to break in an almost entirely new set of less-than-stellar wideouts. It didn't help that his running backs were injured most of the year (more on that later) and that his sub-par receivers revolved in-and-out of the lineup every week. Consider that even though the team went 12-4, Brady's performance dropped significantly from 2005 when they were 10-6. The improvement from 9.0 to 10.0 is due in large part to what's around him. I don't fault him for last year; after Deion Branch said, "Show me the money," the front office never gave him the talent needed to make another run to the Super Bowl. Running Back: 3.0 at the end of 2006, 6.0 to start 2006. Rookie Laurence Maroney played like a rookie last year, flashes of brilliance and too many injuries. Corey Dillon played like a ten-year veteran, a bit slower than in years past and less able to shoulder the load. The reason they were rated at 3.0 last year is that by the end of the campaign, they were both injured, leaving Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans to run the ball. And the results were predictable; they ran for less than 100 yards in the AFC Championship game and Evans committed a crucial "12 men in the huddle" penalty near the end of the game.The improvement stems from Maroney's health and the addition of Sammy Morris (from the Dolphins). Morris is a better backup than Dillon would have been, and this leaves Faulk in his more effective third-down running back position. If they had more quality depth, they'd be a 7.5 instead; but if Maroney goes down, it would hurt almost as much as if Brady did.Tight End: 3.0 at the end of 2006, 3.5 to start 2007.Simply put, if Ben Watson doesn't have a breakout year, that 3.5 might be headed lower. The Pats essentially replaced non-receiving-but-amazing-blocker Daniel Graham with his twin from Jacksonville, Kyle Brady. I'm not expecting big things from David Thomas, and Marcellus Rivers (one of the better pre-season performers) ended up on the practice squad.You might see more production out of the tight end position this year, but that will mostly be because the improvement at wide receiver could open up the middle of the field. Speaking of which...Wide Receiver: 3.0 at the end of 2006, 7.5 to start 2007.At the end of last year, the Pats receivers were among the most feared in the NFL -- feared by Patriots fans everywhere. So Reche Caldwell (who led the team last year) is gone; possibly great Randy Moss and possibly great Donte Stallworth were added; possibly mediocre Kelly Washington was added; possibly most important of all, Wes Welker (a.k.a. Troy Brown II) was added.Welker gives them a threat over the middle and relieves Laurence Maroney in the kick return game, and Moss and Stallworth will both demand double-teaming if they're healthy. That should open things up for the tight ends and running game. But all of this hinges on the health of Moss and Stallworth (Moss missed the entire pre-season, and Stallworth missed 3 games last year and had only 38 receptions for the season). Both will start the season, and as they improve their timing with Brady, this number could be 8.5 or 9.0 in no time.Offensive Line: 6.5 at the end of 2006, 7.0 to start 2007.No real change, with the exception of some players being healthy now. The line was not a problem, nor was it a great strength of the team last year. I expect an improved running attack, due to an improved receiving corps that will force teams to play soft against the run. But I don't expect the team to dominate teams at the line of scrimmage.THE "D" Safety: 3.0 at the end of 2006, 4.0 to start 2007.At the end of last year, both Eugene Wilson and Rodney Harrison were sidelined. This year, Harrison will serve a four-game suspension to start the year, and Wilson will be teamed with James Sanders (who started in the playoffs). The slight up-tick is mostly a nod to Wilson being better than Artrell Hawkins (starter at the end of last year, recently released by the Pats) and better depth with first-round pick Brandon Merriweather in the fold.When Harrison returns (for the Browns game on 10/7), this number will go from 4.0 to maybe 7.0. He makes that much of a difference.Cornerback: 6.5 at the end of 2006, 7.5 to start 2007.There really isn't any change in personnel, just a change in experience and some better health. Ellis Hobbs and Asante Samuel (both starters at the end of last year) will start against the Jets, with Randall Gay and veteran Tory James backing them up. Rookie Brandon Merriweather has gotten significant practice and playing time at cornerback, but this rating is mostly about Asante Samuel reporting to camp, what I expect to be another year of improvement from Ellis Hobbs and a healthy year for Randall Gay (who actually started in their last Super Bowl victory -- in case you'd forgotten).Outside Linebacker: 7.5 at the end of 2006, 9.0 to start 2007.In case you hadn't heard, the Patriots got the jewel of the free agent class with Adalius Thomas, linebacker from the Ravens. He played mostly inside during the pre-season, but versatility is the key to his game, so I expect he'll play some inside and some outside during the regular season. And the team was helped by the release of Tully Banta-Cain, who was exposed as a very, very poor man's Willie McGinest.In any event, if Thomas plays outside, that improves the pass rush. If he plays inside, that allows Mike Vrabel to play his more natural outside position. Either way, the outside crew is improved from last year, and with Rosevelt Colin on the other side, should be one of the most respected in the NFL.Inside Linebacker: 2.5 at the end of 2006, 8.5 to start 2007.Let's be honest about this, Tedy Bruschi had one of his worst years in 2006. Hardly any big plays, running backs bowling him over, tight ends and running backs getting open against him. One possible reason? Turns out he broke his wrist the opening game, and played hurt the entire year. So I expect he'll be better this year; although he is getting older and might never reach the heights he did from 2001 - 2004. At the end of last year, his teammate inside was Eric Alexander, who was repeatedly torched against the Colts and showed that he needs more seasoning.Added for this year are Thomas and some guy named Junior Seau, who was playing very well last year until he broke his arm against the Bears. The addition of both Thomas and Seau make this the most improved position on the team. And teams will have to contend with big problems against the front seven because the defensive line is... well, just read on.Exterior Defensive Line: 9.5 at the end of 2006, 8.5 to start 2007.Ty Warren and Richard Seymour make one of the best outside linemen tandems in the NFL. Factor in veteran backups Jarvis Green and Mike Wright, along with new addition Le Kevin Smith (pronounced "Leh Kee-vin Smith" -- don't ask me why), this unit should be dominant. So why the downgrade? Turns out Seymour is recovering from off-season surgery, and won't start the season with the team. But with Green, Wright, and Smith in there, they should hold down the fort nicely until Richard returns.BTW, don't tell Richard I said so, but Ty Warren had a better 2006 season than he did. But promise you won't tell -- Richard could still grind me into dust and sweep me out with the cat litter.Interior Defensive Line: 8.5 at the end of 2006, 9.0 to start 2007.Vince Wilfork anchors the defensive line from the middle. He'll never have the big stats, but his job is to clog up the middle on running plays and collapse the pocket on passing plays. He isn't the best in the game, but I thought he merited Pro Bowl consideration last year (i.e. he was one of the best three at his position). The slight increase in rating is mostly due to the addition of Le Kevin Smith (who can play both inside and outside).Note: a moment of silence for last year's backup, Marquise Hill, who was killed in an off-season jet ski accident in New Orleans........................................................ Thank you.Special Teams: 6.0 at the end of 2006, 7.5 to start 2007.There's a lot to talk about on special teams. I don't usually put much stock in the pre-season, but the Patriots overloaded the line twice against Carolina to block field goal attempts, and there didn't seem to be much the Panthers could do about it. I like that kind of fire and effort; and it could pay off if the Pats have found something that could work against other teams.Also in the pre-season, I saw Larry Izzo making big play after big play, and there was a lot of competition at punter. Former Pro Bowl punter, Chris Hanson, won the job, and promptly dropped a kick in at the two yard line in the last pre-season game.Additionally, the Pats brought in Wes Welker, who should be an improvement over the return men from the end of last year, Troy Brown and Ellis Hobbs. Welker will also relieve Laurence Maroney from having to return kickoffs, which is important as the running back becomes a featured performer on offense.Lastly, kicker Stephen Gostkowski didn't have a great pre-season, converting only 4 of 8 field goals -- although he booted the hell out of the ball on kickoffs. I think the unit is improved as a whole, but that 4 of 8 worries me a little bit.Coaching: 8.5 at the end of 2006, 9.0 to start 2007.The coaching was about as good as you could expect last year. Given the lack of talent at wide receiver and the injuries to their linebackers, the Pats went about as far as they could reasonably be expected to go. (Note: the injuries to Harrison and Seau just killed them in the playoffs.) They out-smarted themselves by using Eric Alexander instead of Tully Banta-Cain against the Colts. But for the most part, they pushed all the right buttons and came within a few plays of going to another Super Bowl.There were no major coaching changes, although the influx of talented players might make them look a lot better than they did last year. I think both Dean Pees and Josh McDaniels will benefit from another year of seasoning. And keep an eye on the Cleveland Browns situation. If they fire Romeo Crennel, no doubt the Pats would gladly take him as an "Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Consultant" for the remainder of the year.So what does it all boil down to? Well, the average score at the end of 2006 was 5.88; and the average score to start 2007 is 7.42. That's serious improvement, and most importantly, they improved where they needed to -- at wide receiver and linebacker.I do worry how the team would handle the loss of Tom Brady or Laurence Maroney, but all teams face injuries and have to find a way through them. With the coaching staff and players they have in place, I expect the Pats would handle that kind of adversity better than most.THE SKEDSo finally, here's my breakdown of how the schedule is likely to go for the Pats. And as usual, I broke it down into four, four-game quarters of the season.The season starts in New York, and I think the Pats will win, because what they kept under wraps in the pre-season is probably better than what the Jets kept under wraps. San Diego then comes to town, with revenge on their mind (from last year's playoff upset) and an entirely new coaching staff. Without Harrison and Seymour, I think the Pats will have to win a shootout, and Moss hasn't gotten enough practice with the first team, so put down a loss. The Pats should handle Buffalo at home the next week (especially since the Bills have a tough season opening schedule), and they destroyed Cincinnati at home last year, so I expect they'll at least beat the Bengals in Cincy the week after.I don't see how the Cleveland Browns can beat us, so that's another win. After that, it's off to Dallas, a team that is historically always overrated. The Cowboys don't have a tough schedule around that time, and they usually beat the Pats (they're 7-2 lifetime against New England); but I don't see how the Pats talent won't overwhelm them. The October 21 tilt in Miami has all the benchmarks of a loss: division road game, against a team that gives Brady fits, and their two longest road trips back-to-back. But the Dolphins QB situation is a mess and both Harrison and Seymour should be back by then. So call me crazy, but I'm putting it in as a win (and keeping my fingers crossed). The Pats will finish the second-quarter of the season with a possible trap game (sandwiched between division-rival Miami and perennial-rival Indianapolis) against Washington. If Joe Gibbs's team had a QB, I might predict a win for them, but they don't, so I won't -- it should be another W for the Pats.The third-quarter starts with one of those matchups of the year, Pats vs. Colts. Indy has an horrific schedule before and after that game (a division game at Jax, at Carolina, the Pats game, and then at San Deigo). The Pats get a walk-through with Washington, play the Colts, and then have a bye week. Moss, Stallworth, and Brady should be in sync by then, and Indy has lost too many defensive players -- so put it down as a likely victory. After the bye week, the Pats shuffle off to Buffalo, in a classic trap game -- for the Bills, that is. The Pats should win that one. The Pats should be able to beat Philly at home, but the Eagles have a pretty easy slate of games around that time. However, Baltimore will be in the meat of a very tough run. Normally, I might expect the Pats to beat Philly and lose to Baltimore; but based on the opponents schedule, I'll flip-flop that.The fourth-quarter begins with an intriguing one: at home on a short week against Pittsburgh. The Steelers have a tough schedule at that time, but they don't have the short week. However, the Pats obliterated the defense that was run by new Steelers head coach (the Pats torched Mike Tomlin's defense for 31 points in Minnesota last year). But in the end, it's the short week that will probably cost the Pats... put 'em down for another loss. The last three should be a victory lap for the Patriots. The Jets come to town to get beaten again, the Dolphins never play well in the cold, and the Giants just aren't good enough (although the Pats could lose that one if the game means nothing to them and everything to the Giants).Add it all up, and it's a 13-3 record -- or 14-2 if they beat the Steelers or 12-4 if they lose in Miami. Any of those records should get them a division title and 13-3 or 14-2 gets them a first-round bye. Are my expectations too lofty? I don't think so. The Pats were within spitting distance of another Super Bowl appearance (and likely win) last year, and they've added talent and depth to their most problematic positions (wide receiver and linebacker). Brady's health is, as always, of paramount importance; but add to that Laurence Maroney's health for this year. Sammy Morris should be a fine backup, but Maroney has to be the man or it could be trouble.Hope this helps you enjoy the season, and I'll check in every week with new (and hopefully more interesting) stuff during the regular year.Statistical Oddity of the Week: Exactly one half of the Patriots games are against 2006 playoff teams (8 out of 16). That is the highest number in the NFL this year.Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Richard Seymour can be replaced for a few games, but the loss of Rodney [Harrison] for the first month could hurt a lot more."Keep the faith, - Scott PS. 0-0!
