Even though a convincing win might have felt better... you know, before the Patriots lost two consecutive games (a sin for which the local press made Bill Belichick its personal pinata), this was probably the kind of win BB wanted. Hard fought, close game where his team had to show some heart to come from behind and batten down the hatches to secure the win. But the reason he liked these games the most was the heaping helpings of humble pie he could dish out the following week. He's at his best when he has something to keep the team focused on improving, and there was plenty to complain about yesterday.
Thing #1: reduce their turnovers. They moved the ball at will on Sunday, but came away with only 20 points. At one point this season, the Patriots were second in the league in turnover ratio, but they are now seventh (+6). They've lost 12 turnovers in the last six games, and only gotten 9 back, including 5 in a meltdown by Jets QB Mark Sanchez. Take out that Jets game, and it's an aggregate -7 for the other five games since the bye week.
Yesterday it was more of the same. A Tom Brady interception led to the only Carolina touchdown. Randy Moss fumbled his only reception of the game, turning a first down at the 50 into a Carolina first down going the other way. And Sammy Morris lost the ball at the Panthers 25 on the Patriots first drive of the second half. Without those turnovers, the Patriots win this one in a walk. But giving the ball away is the easiest way to let an overmatched team hang around. Fortunately the Patriots were able to close out this game, but they won't always be so lucky.
Thing#2: create more turnovers on defense. It isn't just that the offense is giving the ball away; it's that the defense isn't forcing nearly as many as they did early in the year. They dropped two easy interceptions (James Sanders and Brandon Meriweather), and twice linebackers could have had INTs and twice they whiffed (though both would have been great plays).
Protecting the football and creating turnovers will be crucial if the Patriots plan to make some noise in the playoffs. If they continue playing like they did yesterday, it will be a one or two game playoff run, and no chance at another Super Bowl.
Thing #3: get healthy. Brady is banged up, with shoulder, finger, and rib injuries, and it showed with some inconsistent play early on. Vince Wilfork went out with an injury yesterday, and with neither Myron Pryor or Ron Brace available to clog up the middle, the Panthers ran right down their throat. And it's obvious they have six good offensive linemen but things fall apart when two of them are out. On Sunday, they got Sebastian Vollmer back, and they ran the ball effectively and protected Brady pretty well (though it wasn't perfect). Stephen Neal remains on the roster for a possible return this year. But when both of Vollmer and Neal are out, Dan Connolly is terrible at pass blocking and only marginal at run blocking.
One other note on getting healthy. They also need to *stay* healthy. Laurence Maroney hasn't proven very durable throughout his career, and he's had to shoulder the load with both Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris missing significant time. With Adalius Thomas apparently in the dog house, they were thin at linebacker yesterday, and they are very thin (especially in talent) at wide receiver, so the number of hits Wes Welker takes is a concern. Maybe rediscovering the tight end will help with that.
Thing #4: offensive creativity. Have you heard the one about (offensive coordinator) Bill O'Brien's t-shirt? Just like every Pats coach, it has his initials on it -- "B-O" in this case. Which is appropriate, given that his play-calling stinks (cue rim shot, please!). Okay, it isn't quite that bad. Without red zone turnovers, they are probably 10-3... blah blah blah.
But please shelve that fullback dive on fourth-and-short. It worked once against New Orleans, but has failed the last three times. And try mixing in more first-down running. Yesterday you rushed for 114 yards and 5.4 per carry on first down, and only 61 yards and 3.2 yards per carry on all other downs. And instead of lobs to a covered Randy Moss, try more traditional screen passes, throw in a flea-flicker or end-around twice a game (since teams over-pursue your running plays). And get Chris Baker on the field in the red zone -- he showed the ability to create separation for touchdowns, now *use* it!
Oh... but I guess you are wondering what I thought of yesterday's game. Sorry for the long rant; here's an abbreviated version of a regular update.
Brady wasn't sharp, and I think it was the injuries. Several throws came out with no spiral (which he *never* does), but he was great at getting rid of the ball before a sack. The O-line was much better, with Sebastian Vollmer and Matt Light in the lineup, and Sir Laurence Maroney was strutting his stuff, getting 94 yards on 22 tough runs. Sammy Morris continues to work his way back, and Kevin Faulk came back from a bad game against Miami to rush for 58 (including some big first downs), and do a nice job on blitz pickup. And special props to tight end Chris Baker, who blocked extremely well at the point of attack.
But on offense it was all Wes Welker. When they traded for him, The Weather God (my friend Al) called him "Troy Brown II," and he couldn't have been more right. He extended his NFL lead in total receptions on the year (now at 105), though Andre Johnson (from Houston) leap-frogged him to take the lead in yards. Yesterday Welker had 10 catches, 7 more than any other Patriots player, 105 yards, and 5 first downs. Most important were his 5 catches for 64 yards on the Pats 96-yard touchdown drive. That score came the drive after Sammy Morris' fumble, so to score when you took over at your own 4 yard-line was impressive, and it wouldn't have happened without Welker.
The defense actually looked good. They got beaten for a long touchdown, but aside from that held the Panthers to 3 points even though they didn't force a single turnover. That's a pretty good game, folks. They unleashed some of the front seven and got pressure on the QB, and aside from a few long runs after Wilfork went out, they contained the celebrated Carolina running game. Jerod Mayo looked better, but doesn't appear to be fully recovered from the knee injury. Derrick Burgess got good pressure on the QB (1 sack, 2 QB hits), and Tully Banta-Cain did a nice job holding the point against the run and getting decent pressure (though the stats don't bear it out).
The secondary was in disarray early, and they were lucky the Panthers were missing their starting QB. Brandon Meriweather missed the aforementioned INT, but he did a good job roaming the deep middle, knocking away a potential touchdown pass in the third quarter. And rookie Darius Butler played pretty well, though not perfect. But given their secondary situation, this is good experience for him and the other younger players to get.
The kicking game was fine, not much to report either way. No special teams fumbles, no big returns either way.
And one quick note on the coaching; Belichick should stop challenging plays with his heart instead of his head. He missed on a questionable call in the third quarter, and he needs to keep in mind that the standard for overturning a call is "indisputable visual evidence" not "it sort of looks like we could overturn it." Aside from that, a nice job getting his team to close out a game they might have lost three weeks ago.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, and Jets all won yesterday, so the AFC East had a perfect weekend (4-0). That is only the second time this year a division has won four games in one weekend. Trivia question: Can you name the other division to pull off that trick (answer below)? Note: extra credit if you can name the week that other division did it, and super-extra credit if you can do all of that without using the Internet. Good luck!
Where does that leave us? As mentioned, the Pats are 8-5 with a one game lead in the AFC East. They play their last division game of the year in Buffalo next Sunday, a place where Tom Brady has traditionally feasted on the opposition. Both the Jets (@Indy, vs. Cincy) and Dolphins (@Tenn, vs. Pitts) have tougher schedules down the stretch, so if the Patriots take care of business this week the other two should start to fall by the wayside.
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Look, the Pats don't look like world beaters, but in the playoffs it'll all come down to matchups. Just hope we don't have to play Denver in the first round; we *never* beat them!"
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 8-5!
PPS. Trivia answer below:
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The NFC North teams (Bears, Packers, Vikings, and Lions) won all their games in Week 3 of this year (9/27/2009). Kudos to anyone who even guessed that division; since the Lions have only 2 wins for the entire *season*.
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