Patriots 34, Bills 3

What else is new?  The Patriots blasted the Bills, 34-3 (their 15th consecutive victory over the Bills), the win secures an eighth division title under Bill Belichick and the coveted #1 playoff seed in the AFC.  So it'll be home cooking in the playoffs, and as long as they continue winning their next plane trip would be for the Super Bowl in Dallas.  Next week Miami visits Foxboro for what is essentially a meaningless game, except for the importance of avoiding injuries.

This one was a laugher early on.  The Bills ran the ball well on their first drive and got a field goal, but the Patriots adjusted to shut down the run and put the pressure on quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.  (Trivia question: did the Bills have more rushing yards on their first drive or in the rest of the game?  Answer below.)  And once the game was on the quarterback, he wilted under the pressure, fumbling twice and throwing three interceptions.  For the game the Bills had seven turnovers, which is almost as many as the Patriots have all year (9), and the Patriots scored 34 unanswered points to cruise to victory.

It was mostly good on both offense and defense.  Tom Brady was nearly flawless in the snow again, missing only a few passes where wind may have been a factor.  His streak of consecutive passes without an interception now stands at an NFL record 319 attempts over 10 games, which is absolutely remarkable.  He did a great job managing things, throwing underneath most of the day and not once putting the ball at risk.  And his numbers would have looked even better if Wes Welker (of all people) held onto the ball.

Welker was the only dim bulb among the receivers, dropping at least three catchable balls.  He's had a few drops lately, and he'll need to straighten that out if the team expects to make a serious playoff run.  Welker did get three catches on the day, and Rob Gronkowski (4 catches for 54 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Danny Woodhead (3 for 32 yards) picked up the slack.  Gronk impresses every week, both as a practically-uncoverable receiver and a blocker in the running game, and given the limitations of the passing game on Sunday, it's a good thing the Patriots can run it and the Bills can't stop the run.

Danny Woodhead started the Patriots scoring with a 39-yard scamper right through the Bills defense.  Woodhead almost notched 100 yards (he had 93), while bruiser-back BenJarvus Green-Ellis did break the century mark with 104.  They controlled the ball with the run, racking up a 5:00 advantage in time of possession and wearing down the Bills defense until the players looked like didn't want to be there in the second half.

And of course, no running or passing could happen without the offensive line, which was stellar.  They left behind the problems of last week, plowing through the defense on running plays and providing great protection in the passing game.  Center Dan Koppen and tight end Alge Crumpler impressed me the most, doubling the interior line and opening huge holes for the backs.  The Bills hit Brady just twice (one sack), and when the protection broke down, Brady bought time in the pocket or ran for the first down.  Just a great day by the O-line and the offense, under less than ideal conditions.

Most of the defense played great, putting together a solid performance with hard hits, sure tackles (except for the first Bills possession), and timely turnovers.  Patrick Chung makes a difference every game he plays, defending two passes on Sunday with jarring hits and intercepting a pass when the Bills were driving to make it a one-score game.  Devin McCourty continues his solid play in the secondary, and even Darius Butler pitched in and played surprisingly well.  James Sanders missed the game with an illness, but Brandon Meriweather stepped in and played okay; though the team really needs Chung and Sanders in there for the playoffs.

Jerod Mayo had a great overall game: 5 tackles, 1 QB hit, 2 passes defended, 1 forced fumble, and 1 fumble recovery.  Not a lot of players hit as hard as he does and go sideline-to-sideline in run support.  And he added excellent pass coverage against the Bills, which is the weakest part of his game.  His ILB partner, Gary Guyton excelled, too: 6 tackles, 1 sack, 2 passes defended, and 1 forced fumble of his own.  You should still hope that Brandon Spikes returns to form after his league-suspension ends next week, but for now Guyton is doing well.

The weak spot on defense was the outside linebackers.  Jermaine Cunningham missed the game with an injury, and that put Rob Ninkovich opposite Tully Banta-Cain.  Ninkovich didn't make any really bad plays, but Banta-Cain guessed wrong about half the time, allowing big running plays and losing his outside contain on the pass rush.  This was not an injury thing; he just got abused by the Bills' play-calling and game plan.  Banta-Cain topped the team with eight tackles; but that is a lot less impressive given that he gave up huge plays on the first drive and was repeatedly lost.  He's been here long enough to know the defense, and we best hope this game was an aberration.

Vince Wilfork played great again, and his mates on the defensive line bottled things up and made effective adjustments during the game.  And those other D-linemen: Kyle Love, Eric Moore, Ron Brace, and Gerard Warren -- weren't exactly expected to burn it up this year.  Love is a rookie, Brace was awful last year, Warren was supposedly too old, and Moore played in the UFL earlier this year.  Give credit to the defensive line coach, Pepper Johnson, for great work with a lineup that changes every week because of injuries and that is missing Ty Warren (out for the year) and Mike Wright and Myron Pryor (both out with injuries lately).

Special teams did okay.  Shane Graham's kickoffs were shorter but higher, giving the coverage team a chance to make the tackle... which they did.  Average kickoff return by the Bills was 15.5 yards, and in fact they had zero yards on punt returns, which is a credit to punter Zoltan Mesko.  But overall, Graham's kickoffs were better.  He won't be the weapon Gostkowski was, but if his kicks are like they were against Buffalo that would be fine.

So where does that leave us?  13-2 guarantees them a first round bye in the playoffs and home games through the AFC Championship if they continue winning.  Regardless of next week's outcome, the Patriots are two wins away from the Super Bowl; how many pundits predicted *that* before the year started?  So the big thing against Miami is to stay healthy... no last-minute injuries like last season.

Statistical Oddity of the Week:  The Patriots and Bills each committed exactly 6 penalties for exactly 40 yards.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Here's hoping the Bills never move out the division -- we *own* them."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  13-2!

PPS.  Trivia answer:

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The Bills had 64 yards rushing on their opening drive and 61 yards rushing the rest of the game.

Patriots 31, Packers 27

If you listened to the talking heads all week it wasn't supposed to be like this.  The Patriots held on for a 31-27 win over the Packers, a team most pundits predicted the Pats would destroy, especially with a backup quarterback under center for Green Bay.  But the Patriots did hold on for the win, giving them a 12-2 record, two games ahead of their nearest AFC challenger.  They head to Buffalo next week for a game against the Bills, and if the Patriots win they will be the #1 playoff seed in the AFC.  It doesn't get much simpler than that.

As for the Packers game, New England faced a trio of factors that made it much tougher than most people thought it would be.  First, the Packers have a balanced offense and an attacking defense, both of which give the Patriots trouble.  Consider how the Saints beat them handily last year, or how the Chargers and Colts have been giving them trouble for a while now.  Second, the Pats defense often underperforms against young quarterbacks who have no track record to study/attack (see: "Roethlisberger, Ben" from 2004, "Henne, Chad" in 2009, or even "Bradford, Sam" from this pre-season).  And third, the Packers' playoff hopes hung in the balance, and they needed a win desperately.

The Pats got contributions in all three phases, and the defense shut down the Packers at the end when it counted.  The defensive line was very tick-or-treat, sometimes stuffing the run and sometimes getting gashed by it.  Vince Wilfork was their best defensive player, but he couldn't do it alone, and the Patriots had loads of injuries on the defensive line (Mike Wright, Myron Pryor, and Ron Brace were all inactive) and a crucial player suspension (Brandon Spikes).  Against that depleted line the Packers got a big push up front and gained 143 yards on the ground.  But even with all the missing players, the Pats somehow generated a very good pass rush, blitzing some but mostly just bull-rushing -- and all told getting 5 sacks for 25 yards.

When the Green Bay running backs escaped the D-line and hit the second level they ran around and over the linebackers.  Jerod Mayo (16 tackles) and Gary Guyton (8) mostly seemed to stop guys after decent gains, but when they missed it seemed like the running back could go forever.  Rob Ninkovich did a decent job holding the edge, but Tully Banta-Cain got bounced around like a rag doll, and Jermaine Cunningham didn't fare much better on the opposite side.  Both were better pressuring the passer; and of course Banta-Cain's late penalty negated an interception and almost cost the Patriots the game.

In the secondary, Devin McCourty would be your defensive co-MVP.  His stats on the evening: 10 tackles, 1 sack, 2 tackles for a loss, and 1 pass knocked away.  Maybe he should injure his rib *every* week (just joking y'all!).  He continues to make a strong push for NFL defensive rookie of the year; he's started every game and other than the Bears game he's played just about every snap this season.  And with McCourty shutting down one side, they can roll a safety to help Kyle Arrington, who you have to admire for guts and determination, if not talent -- even though he did have an interception, with a very nice return for a touchdown.

(Note: As McCourty makes a push for NFL defensive rookie of the year, his main competition, Ndamukong Suh of the Lions, is tapering off.  In his last 7 games, Suh has just 28 tackles and 1.5 sacks.)

The biggest question in the defensive backfield is why Brandon Meriweather gets any playing time at all.  He took a bad angle on a play that gave the Packers a 66 yard touchdown.  And he looked absolutely lost on two other plays, hesitating as if he wasn't sure what to do, which is a big, huge no-no for a safety.  If he doesn't trust his own instincts (and there isn't much evidence he should), then Pat Chung and James Sanders should be the starting safeties, with Jarrad Page as the third option.  Chung is great, and Sanders at least knows the defense and doesn't get caught out of position.

The offense struggled all night, and it didn't help that they only had 9 possessions to Green Bay's 12.  What did help was the short field after Dan Connolly's 71-yard kickoff return (an NFL record for an offensive lineman), and getting a quick seven on Arrington's interception.  Connolly's play was wonderful to watch -- just ask the Packers' special teams, they mostly watched while he rumbled down the field.  The video is here; it's worth the time to check it out if you missed it.

Connolly's heroics notwithstanding, the offensive line had a pretty bad day.  They didn't handle the blitz well, allowing too many free hits on the quarterback and too many tackles for a loss or no gain in the running game.  The Patriots rushing average was very good, 7.1 yards a carry and several long runs off-tackle.  (Trivia question: The Patriots last ran for 7.1 yards a carry in 2008 against the Raiders... can you name either of the two leading rushers in that game?  Answer below.)  But everyone on the O-line, except for Matt Light, had at least one brain-cramp, and the Packers continued to blitz because it worked.  Not a good day when you give up 3 sacks (27 yards), 3 quarterback hits, and 4 tackles behind the line of scrimmage.

The stat sheet indicated a decent running game: 113 yards on 16 carries, a 33 yard touchdown, and some effective misdirection plays.  But it sure didn't feel that way during the game.  Of those 16 rushes, 6 were for 2 yards or less, not a good thing when you're trying to establish a consistent running attack.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis made a nifty move on his 33 yard touchdown, and in the fourth quarter they finally settled on Danny Woodhead around end -- and made decent yardage with it.  But they need to work on their pass protection schemes because you know other teams will try the same thing since it worked so well for the Packers.

The passing game looked alternately overmatched and unstoppable.  Overmatched when the Packers got pressure, and unstoppable when Tom Brady had time.  Brady finished the day with only 163 yards passing, but most importantly had no turnovers, and he and his receivers made some great plays against pressure (Deion Branch's 17-yard catch on 3rd-and-17, his scoop of a wobbler in the fourth quarter).  However, Green Bay almost picked off two passes that Brady shouldn't have thrown... and those throws were against the blitz.  But when he had time, Brady was very good.  His audible on Aaron Hernandez' second touchdown was brilliant, and some of the tight windows he used were jaw-dropping.

The receivers did not turn in big numbers; but Aaron Hernandez had 4 catches and 2 touchdowns, and with Wes Welker catching only half the balls thrown his way (3 of 6), the running backs and other tight ends pitched in to make up the slack.  Hernandez' fellow rookie Rob Gronkowski caught a crucial pass to move the Pats into scoring range in the first quarter, and all three catches that Green-Ellis and Woodhead had between them helped keep scoring drives alive.

The Patriots still need some special teams work.  For the most part the kickoffs were better; shorter than Gostkowski boots but the coverage team did a nice job shutting down the return (in all but one case).  But the Packers opened the game with an onside kick, and the replay showed James Sanders vacating his designated area, and the Packers ended up recovering the kick.  With the Patriots offense doing so well, the team should expect opponents to pull trick plays like this... so James Sanders, you are the winner of the "extra laps" award for the week.

Not a lot to say about the coaching, except that they put their defensive players in good position to make plays against the pass but sort of ran out of bodies against the run.  Bill Belichick probably said he was glad to have the win at this point in the season -- that sounds about right.

So where does that leave us?  No rest for that defense; Buffalo put up 30 points against them earlier in the year, and this game will be in Buffalo.  Expect the Patriots to win, though -- they've beaten the Bills 14 straight times, and it appears that the Bills' offense is running out of gas (fewer than 20 points in each of the last 3 games).  One more win gives the Pats the AFC East title and the #1 playoff seed in the conference.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: All props to Dan Connolly on his 71 yard kickoff return... anything that had never happened in NFL history must qualify as an oddity.

Bonus Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots completed their sixth consecutive game without a turnover.  The previous NFL record was four consecutive games -- no small feat to better a long-standing record by 50%.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It's probably just as well if the Packers keep losing and don't make the playoffs; that way there's no chance we could see them in the Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers at QB."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  12-2!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:

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Sammie Morris led the Patriots with 117 yards, and one-time Raider LaMont Jordan was close behind with 97.

Patriots 36, Bears 7

If you're keeping score at home, that's consecutive wins by an aggregate 91-10 score over teams with a combined 18-8 record.  Not bad for six days work.  The Patriots kept the train a-rollin', outclassing the Bears 36-7 yesterday in snowy, windy Chicago.  The win gives the Pats a two-game lead in the division and essentially a two-game lead (with tie-breakers) over the Steelers in the AFC.  A desperate Green Bay team comes to town Sunday night for their shot at the Pats.

I will never understand how a quarterback from California plays so well in the snow, but Tom Brady is undefeated when the white stuff is flying.  His statline in horrible conditions yesterday: 27 of 40 for 369 yards, 2 touchdowns and (as always) zero interceptions.  He threw some bad passes, including two easy picks that the Bears kindly dropped.  But overall his command of the field and seemingly unaffected play in the face of the snow and wind was mind-boggling.  He led three touchdown drives of at least 80 yards; whereas the Bears could only muster one touchdown all day -- on a 35-yard drive after a long kick return.

Not that Brady did it alone.  The offensive line spent most of the day in superlative-land, and three sacks notwithstanding, they gave Brady plenty of time and great protection most of the day.  Logan Mankins and Dan Koppen played the part of road-graders, blowing the Bears defense off the ball and getting downfield for additional blocks on runs and screen passes.  They combined with tight ends Alge Crumpler and Rob Gronkowski to push the Bears around on wide runs and push them back on up-the-gut plays.  There were a few plays in the second half where the Bears pass-rushing talent shone through, getting to Brady from the inside and outside.  But the game was well in hand by then.

The receivers didn't let the cold affect them too much, with only a few drops and not a single fumble, despite some hard hits.   Deion Branch and Wes Welker had 8 catches each, and both topped 100 yards (151 and 115, respectively).  And it's been a long time since something on the football field made me say "Wow!" out loud, but Branch's 59-yard touchdown with time expired in the second quarter did the trick.  No excuse for the Bears to let it happen, and kudos to Branch and Brady for eschewing the kneel-down the sideline was recommending and going for the jugular instead.

Gronkowski just chugs along, showing excellent technique to get open for his touchdown and grabbing important first downs all game long.  Aaron Hernandez is returning to form after his four-week hiatus in the middle of the season.  Gronkowski leads NFL rookie tight ends with 7 touchdowns, and Hernandez is second with 4 of his own, along with 532 receiving yards (also tops among rookie tight ends).  Heck, even Brandon Tate held on to an amazing catch along the sideline, so *anything* is possible :)

The O-line also gave the running game lots of lanes, some of them huge gashes right up the middle.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis refuses to give way to veteran Fred Taylor, staking his claim again with 87 tough yards and 4.1 yards a carry -- both against a team that you supposedly can't run against.  Danny Woodhead is slowing down a bit; but his role is growing in the outside running and slant passing games.  Even Sammie Morris pitched in on Sunday with a key third-down conversion to keep a touchdown drive alive.

During the game, commentator Phil Simms said repeatedly that this is the best offense in the NFL, and that teams will be copying it for years to come.  It's tough to argue with that, except to say that if you don't have the right trigger-man and player versatility, this offense is not for you.  The Patriots excel at doing the best with what they have, and right now it's Brady, the short-to-intermediate passing game, and a flexible offensive line coached by one of the best in the NFL, longtime assistant Dante Scarnecchia.

The defense played smart and tough under difficult conditions, showing more resilience than the hometown Bears by a mile.  You don't hold your opponent to just 20:19 of possession time without killing drives and taking the ball away.  The Pats defense did both; holding the Bears to 38% on third down conversions and nabbing four turnovers.

I hate to say the secondary is all about Devin McCourty, but they'd be lost without him (and here's hoping his injury is minor).  He stripped the ball to cause a turnover that Gary Guyton returned for an early touchdown, and McCourty knocked away another pass and had three tackles, one for a loss when he blew up an outside run.  If only Bodden hadn't gotten injured, we wouldn't have Kyle Arrington on the other side.  Oh wait, Arrington actually had a good game.  He did give up some completions, but made sure tackles in the second half, knocked away a third-down pass to stall a drive, and had two tackles on special teams.

And the safety combination of James Sanders and Pat Chung excelled again this week.  Chung led the team with six tackles, and James Sanders doled out jarring hits across the middle and made sure not to get beaten deep.  Brandon Meriweather still looks lost sometimes, which is beyond explanation since he's been here for years.  He might never figure it out; but as long as Sanders and Chung stay healthy the Pats will be okay.

The defensive line was thin, with injuries to Mike Wright and Myron Pryor.  So the Pats plugged in someone named Eric Moore.  They signed him this past week, and he immediately notched four tackles and a sack.  Vince Wilfork was his usual dominant self, and Gerard Warren proves every week that he is a more than capable fill-in for Ty Warren.  The line still doesn't get great pressure, but they cleaned up multiple plays when Bears QB Jay Cutler was forced up in the pocket.  They harassed Cutler into an awful day, his worst passer rating of the season, a pathetic 32.9.  (Trivia question: Cutler played the Patriots one other time: when was the other game, and did Cutler win or lose?  Answer below.)

Linebacker play baffled even me yesterday.  Gary Guyton stepped in for the suspended Brandon Spikes, and he picked off a pass and returned a fumble for a touchdown.  But then he whiffed twice on the Bears' only scoring drive.  Jermaine Cunningham and Tully Banta-Cain continue to go a bit too wide on their pass rush, allowing QBs to step up too easily; but then Rob Ninkovich might blast up the middle or hold up at the end of the line -- or maybe make a saving tackle to force a punt.  It can be maddening to watch; but you can't argue with the results; the bend-but-don't-break defense is alive and well and living in Foxboro.  However, the team will welcome Spikes back for the playoffs; they'll need him to hold up against the running attacks they would face in the post season.

Shane Graham was Mr. Up-and-down.  He went 3-of-3 field goals off a frozen and slippery field through howling winds.  Then he missed an extra point.  And to top it all off, his kickoffs were returned for far too many yards.  Special teams coach Scott O'Brien has to work with Graham to use either squibs or directional kicks against better return men; they can't go into the playoffs playing Russian roulette every time Graham kicks it away.

So where does that leave us?  11-2 and a playoff berth sounds pretty good.  But if Aaron Rodgers plays next week (and you should expect him to play), the Packers present a lot of offensive problems for the Pats, with the kind of balance that can expose the Patriots defensive weaknesses.  The Pack also plays the 3-4 defense, which is better at stopping the pass, so that favors Green Bay, too.  And if you factor in that the Packers are fighting for their playoff life, while the Pats are already in, this becomes a very dangerous game.  So bring your pom-poms, and given Brady's record in the snow, hope for a blizzard.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: At the half, the Patriots had outscored two opponents 92-0 in their last 90 minutes played in the snow (59-0 over Tennessee last year, 33-0 over Chicago in the first half yesterday).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If the Patriots were a stock, they'd be Google."

Bonus Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If the Pats go 2-1 the rest of the way, they are the #1 playoff seed in the AFC."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  11-2!

PPS.  Trivia answer:

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Playing for the Denver Broncos, Cutler lost 41-7 to the Patriots on October 20, 2008.  He is now an aggregate 77-14 loser in two tries against the Pats, with 1 touchdown, 4 interceptions, and a passer rating of 40.5.

Patriots 45, Jets 3

It's official folks, the Patriots are better than even *I* predicted.  I had them at 9-3 to this point, and they outstripped even that optimism by thrashing the Jets 45-3 on Monday night, giving them a 10-2 record.  That is the best record in the AFC, putting them in great position to win the division and perhaps get a coveted playoff bye; but beware of the road game in Chicago on a short week against the resurgent Bears.  Alright, don't beware of it -- just enjoy the win for a day and worry about the Bears later.

Rex Ryan isn't talking much, not with a mouth full of the crow after the 45-3 humiliation.  As he said after the game, "I came to kick [Belichick's] butt, and he kicked mine."  That's why you do your talking on the field, not at the podium.  Ryan seems smart enough to understand that provoking the enemy doesn't work to your advantage over the long haul.  The question is, can he reign in that mouth before it gets him in trouble or his players start tuning him out.

To say the Patriots had this one all the way is an understatement.  The offense drove relentlessly, notching scores on four straight drives to start the game and three straight to start the second half.  Other than that, they didn't look very good.  They got out in front early and save two hiccups in the second quarter they kept the accelerator to the floor against a Jets team not designed to come back from big deficits.

The Patriots use of short passes and misdirection runs make them a much more difficult matchup for the Jets than they were with the vertical passing game of Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth.  The New York defense has playmakers all over the field, and they like to blitz and play man-coverage.  But man-to-man is largely negated against a team with talented quick-cutting receivers who flood the middle of the field -- zone coverage is much more effective against that type of offense.

The result on Monday: Danny Woodhead (4 catches for 104 yards) and Wes Welker (7 for 80) destroyed the Jets in the intermediate zone, catching every pass thrown their way and scampering for yards after the catch.  They kept drives alive, along with Deion Branch, who caught two straight passes to turn third-and-22 into 7 points with a nifty catch-and-run on fourth down.  And in the second half the Jets keyed on Branch and Welker, so Woodhead did his damage and Tom Brady threw to Aaron Hernandez for all 51 of the tight end's yards and a 1-yard touchdown to ice the game in the fourth quarter.

Speaking of that Brady guy, this was his best performance of the year.  The Jets defense is very good, last night notwithstanding, and Brady posted a 148.9 passer rating.  It marked the eighth time he threw touchdown passes to four different players in one game.  (Trivia question: can you name the year and opponent of his first such game.  Bonus points if you can name two of the four men who caught touchdowns in that game... answer below).  His surgical dissection of a top notch NFL defense was the latest in what might be the best four-game stint of his career.  Some numbers from those games: 91 of 124 (73.4%), 1,203 yards (300+ per game), 13 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and an absolutely sick 138.6 passer rating.  And those games include victories over the Jets and Steelers, teams that sported top 10 passing defenses before they played the Patriots.

Overall the offensive line gets a B on the day, and the blocking performance of the tight ends is included in that grade.  No one expected they'd come close to 100 yards rushing on the day, but they went for 101.  Logan Mankins was a beast pulling around end, and with the middle clogged up they had some nice misdirection runs in the second half.  But in the passing game the O-line and tight ends suffered from some miscommunication, with blitzers coming free too often and Brady getting sacked 4 times for 56 yards.  Brady did a good job sliding around in the pocket to stay upright; or it could have been a lot more sacks for a lot more yards.

The defense helped build the large lead with stops on four of six first half drives.  And it did what it should have done with a large lead; let the Jets run and make the sure tackle to keep the clock moving.  It never looks good to give up 156 yards on the ground; but once the Patriots had the lead it was more important to take away the big passing play.  And the Jets averaged a pathetic 4.4 yards per pass attempt; so mission accomplished.

Once again, the defense created timely turnovers.  With the Jets driving for a touchdown that would have closed it to 24-10 early in the third quarter, Brandon Spikes intercepted a ball over the middle to shut down the drive.  The throw was a little low, and Spikes snagged it Bruschi-style, halfway to the receiver (who was triple covered in the end zone, by the way).

After a good kickoff return, the Jets were set up at the Patriots 45 yard line, when Devin McCourty undercut Braylon Edwards on the sideline for the interception.  It was the same type of play that got him an INT against the Lions, and an ill-advised play call -- a long pass into the wind when you needed a touchdown to make it a game.  And just for good measure James Sanders got the easiest pick of his career on a throw Sanchez never should have made.

Sanchez' passing line during this span: 2 of 6 for 12 yards, 3 interceptions and zero touchdowns.  Patriots points off those turnovers: 21.  Ballgame.

The Patriots got consistent pressure on Jets QB Sanchez; but once they got there they couldn't close the deal, only sacking him once.  Tully Banta-Cain and Jermaine Cunningham got some stuff off the edge, and overall the line kept him in the pocket so he couldn't make plays on the run.  But the Jets biggest problems were self-inflicted: Sanchez misreads of the defense, some inaccurate passes, not looking off the safeties, and some drops by his receivers.  The Pats secondary and linebackers confused both the quarterback and receivers of the Jets, and that led to one stalled drive after another.  And once the lead got too large, it was all over.

James Sanders and Pat Chung continue to impress as a safety combo in the secondary, and as stated last week, Devin McCourty is making a run at NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.  Mayo remains in the driver's seat for most tackles in the league this year, and the unsung rotation up front stuffs inside runs very well, and the linebacker rotation is getting better, with Rob Ninkovich and Gary Guyton contributing last night.  The only question that remains about this defense is whether or not they can stop a balanced attack -- i.e. an offense that can run the ball and pass the ball well.  Chicago runs the ball well, but I'm not sold on Jay Cutler, so this weekend's game in the windy city might not tell us much.  But the answer should come when the Green Bay Packers ride into town; they can run and pass as well as any team in the league, so stay tuned.

The special teams clearly miss Stephen Gostkowski's deep kickoffs.  Gostkowski ranked 4th in kickoff average, while his replacement is 27th, and when they try to kick away from good returners the other team is getting great field position.  If Graham can't kick the ball deeper, they need to work on his short game, directional kicks, and squibs to make sure he doesn't give up big returns.  But on the plus side, long snapper Matt Katula outperformed even what Jake Ingram did last year, so that position look solid.

And honestly you can't say enough about the coaching job this week.  Belichick gave his players 5 days off after the Thanksgiving day victory, and they responded with spirited play and flawless execution.  The Patriots staff totally outclassed the Jets group this week, in everything from game preparation to halftime adjustments.

So where does that leave us?  10-2 atop the AFC is a good place to be, and the real tale of their season will be told in the next two weeks: with a road tilt against the resurgent Bears and a Sunday night game against the Packers in Foxboro.  The Bears really don't worry me; it seems that Belichick has been waiting for a chance to confuse Jay Cutler into some turnovers.  The Packers are a much bigger threat, even though that game is at home, because of their balance on offense.

Oh and by the way, if the Patriots win one more game, they are officially in the playoffs, so they've got that going for them.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: At 7-5, the Jacksonville Jaguars are 2 games above .500 and leading their division; and yet they've been outscored by their opponents by 43 points, worst in their division and worse than *any* team in the NFC North division (including the 2-10 Detroit Lions).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Jets philosophy of running the ball and playing solid defense is so outdated they should call their head coach T-Rex Ryan."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  10-2!

PPS.  Trivia answer:
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Brady threw touchdown passes to Antowain Smith, Troy Brown, Charles Johnson, and Mark Edwards against the Saints on November 25, 2001 -- his first season as a starter.

Patriots 45, Lions 24

Looks like those second half adjustments are much improved.  The Patriots thrashed the Lions 45-24 yesterday, bludgeoning them 35-7 in the final 30 minutes and improving to 9-2 on the season, still tied with the Jets for first in the AFC East.  (Trivia question #1: name the other game this year when the Patriots outscored their opponent 35-7 in the second half... answer below.)  And that sets up the latest "NFL game of the year" on December 6, when the Jets come to town to play the Pats for conference and division supremacy.

The Patriots came out flat in the first half.  Dropped passes, too much pressure by the Lions D-line, poor kickoff coverage, and too many yards and points given up to a team that shouldn't have been on the field with them.  The Pats whimpered into the half down 17-10, and given the Lions domination of the line of scrimmage it could have been a lot worse.

When they went four-and-out on the first series of the second half, it looked like a dangerous opponent might just sneak out a win.  But they were saved by Devin McCourty's fourth interception of the year; he cut in front of all-world receiver Calvin Johnson and saved the game for the Patriots.  They took full advantage of the short field, this time going four-and-touchdown instead (short throw to Wes Welker) to tie the game.  After the teams traded touchdowns, the Lions reverted to form: they missed a field goal, committed stupid penalties to stop their own drives and extend Patriots drives, and turned the ball over again, specifically another McCourty INT.

McCourty impresses every week, and might be making a legitimate push for NFL defensive rookie of the year.  He returned the two INTs yesterday for 73 yards, and he might well have played every defensive snap this season for the Patriots.  He doesn't get beaten deep, makes sure tackles in the pass and run games, and he plays a lot bigger than his size (5' 10", 193).  His long reach and willingness to battle from the island position week after week make him a force to be considered by the other team.  Not Pro-Bowl level by any stretch of the imagination, but it makes one wonder what might have been if Leigh Bodden (last year's best corner) didn't get injured in the pre-season.

Lions QB Shaun Hill finished with 285 yards, but he averaged a paltry 5.8 yards per attempt (versus 12.1 for the Patriots), and that was largely a function of the Patriots trying not to get beaten deep.  The safety combo of James Sanders and Pat Chung is clearly their best, both players possessing great instincts and showing a keen understanding of the defense.  And even with Brandon Meriweather being more of a trick-or-treat player, the secondary finished yesterday's game with 24 tackles, 6 passes knocked down, and of course the 2 INTs.  They also had a few hard hits, to separate receivers from the ball, especially late in the game; though Chung needs to know he can't lower his head to hit the QB -- that was an easy penalty call.

You know your D-line is banged up when Kyle Love gets significant playing time, which he did.  The rushing yards against them looked worse than they really were (127 yards and 4.8 yards per carry) -- there were several long runs that skewed the stats.  Overall the D-line and linebackers did a decent job stopping the run, especially when you consider they spent most of the game in nickel to stop the pass.  Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo stuffed most of the inside runs, and Brandon Spikes and the secondary got some plays that went outside.  But they still need better containment on wide runs; Jermaine Cunningham is better than Tully Banta-Cain at this, but there isn't anyone who does it nearly as well as Mike Vrabel did for years.

And even though the Patriots D-line provided very little quarterback pressure, the biggest defensive problem continues to be the medium-middle passing zones.  Mayo can't cover any decent back or tight end one-one-one, and Brandon Spikes is more of a run stopper.  Gary Guyton can cover receivers, but he guesses wrong too often and those plays extend drives.  And Rob Ninkovich and Pierre Woods won't be the answer.  That might mean cheating up a safety to cover the middle-medium passes, but that would open them up to longer passes against teams with enough receiver talent -- which would be the bulk of their remaining schedule and just about any team they'd face if they get into the playoffs.

There isn't an easy answer to this puzzle; they will have to go with the players they have and hope they can out-scheme or out-guess their opponents.  Thankfully, their offense can score with the best of them, so they can lean on that sometimes.

And speaking of offense, two men on the Patriots had absolutely stellar days yesterday: quarterback Tom Brady and offensive coordinator (in all but title) Bill O'Brien.  Brady finished with a "perfect" quarterback rating of 158.3, and led the team on five consecutive touchdown drives to salt the game away.  And for those worried about the lack of quick-strike offense without Randy Moss, the three long drives in that list were: 3 plays for 87 yards in 1:38; 5 plays for 64 yards in 2:15; and 7 plays for 84 yards in 4:25.  Brady missed a few passes in the first half; but his pinpoint accuracy and spread-the-field mentality paid huge dividends after the break.  He completed passes to seven different receivers, and it would have been eight if Brandon Tate could hold onto the ball.

And Bill O'Brien (or whomever is calling the plays these days) called a superb game.  A great mix of run-pass, great plays called to overcome long yardage situations, and once the Lions were on the ropes he diced them up with mis-directions, power runs, and play-action calls for big chunks of yardage.  His maturation as an offensive coordinator is evident in how they handled the transitions when Kevin Faulk was injured, when Randy Moss was traded, and when Logan Mankins returned to a then-cohesive O-line.  And of course, an OC makes his name in how he calls a game, and yesterday was Bill O'Brien's best since the 2009 Tennessee blowout (Pats won 59-0).

Deion Branch (3 catches for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns), Wes Welker (8-90, 2 touchdowns), and Rob Gronkowski (5-65) beguiled the Lions with speed, quickness, and power.  Branch didn't catch a ball until the second half, but he twisted and turned defenders on consecutive catches for 79- and 22-yard scores.  Welker out-quicked the defense for drive-sustaining grabs all game long, and showed determination in muscling his way into the end zone on both touchdowns.  Gronkowski beat the Lions run-blocking, in the short passing game, and up the seam for long gains.  He has the power blow over defenders and the height and wingspan to outjump them.

The running attack was not dominant, except when it needed to be.  The strength of the Lions defense is along the line, so the Pats didn't waste much time trying to run it down their throats.  But the run-pass mix created enough of a threat to hold the linebackers and open up pass routes, and when the Lions dropped back to pass, BenJarvus Green-Ellis hammered them for important yards and scores.  He ended up with 12 carries for 59 yards and 2 touchdowns, and both scores were hard inside runs where he battered defenders and drove them into the end zone.  Danny Woodhead didn't have as good a running day as he did the past few weeks, but this was a day to pass anyway, so don't read too much into it.

And along the O-line it was a mixed bag.  The outside rush got to Brady too often in the first half, and the inside did the same until they started double-teaming the tackles.  The Pats couldn't handle the Lions inside size or outside quickness, and blitzes confused them more than they should at this point in the season.  But give them credit for adjusting to shorter passes and play-action to slow down the rush; it worked to perfection in the second half.

On special teams, they gave up way too many good kickoff returns and didn't get any of their own.  Brandon Tate needs to realize that when they kick him into a corner he should take it straight ahead and get what he can.  He tried to cross the field too often, wanting to make a big play, and was regularly tackled short of the 20 yard line.  And with Gostkowski gone, they are giving up longer returns -- might be time to do shorter kickoffs so the coverage can get to the ball carrier quicker.

So where does that leave us?  9-2 and tied with the Jets atop the AFC... seems like a good place to be.  And the Gillette Showdown is 10 days away, should be a real barn-burner.  Also, the extra days off couldn't have come at a better time, with Brady missing practice this week, he can use the additional time to rest his injured ankle.  He'll need maximum mobility against the blitz-happy Jets, that's for sure.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: A 9-2 record guarantees that the Patriots will go yet another season without ever dipping below .500.  The last time they were under .500 was when they lost the opener in 2003 (which put them at 0-1).  So by the end of this year, it'll be 127 straight games without a losing record, obliterating the old record of 96 (trivia question #2: name the team that held that record).  Enjoy the run while it lasts, folks... excellence like this does not come along more than once in a lifetime.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Sure Brady was amazing and all, but why do I think McCourty saved their bacon with his pick early in the second half?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  9-2!

PPS.  Trivia Answers:

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#1: The Patriots outscored the Dolphins 35-7 in the second half of their game in Miami.

#2: The Buffalo Bills were never below .500 from 1988 - 1994.

Patriots 31, Colts 28

Couldn't ask for much more folks; 31-28 was too close for comfort, but the Patriots survived a furious comeback to notch the win and keep pace in the AFC East.  At 8-2, the Pats are tied with the Jets for first place in the division and the conference, and both teams are in position for decent post-season seeding and could find themselves duking it out for a possible playoff bye.

It was another November to remember, the latest in a series of classic games between two of the best NFL franchises.  Since 2003 the Patriots and Colts have played seven regular season games in November, with an average score of Colts 28.86 Patriots 26.14.  That's less than a field goal difference per game, and there was only one blowout in the bunch, a 40-21 Colts victory.  Take that game out, and the two teams are absolutely dead even -- 27 points each per game in six contests.  No wonder the NFL always schedules Pats/Colts during sweeps, they are great theater.  (Trivia question: which year since 2003 did the Patriots *not* play their regular season Colts game in November?  Answer below.)

The Patriots actually won this game 3-0, which is the interception totals of the Colts and Patriots, respectively.  Peyton Manning looked positively human, overthrowing on his first one, miscommunicating with a receiver on the second, and underthrowing the third with the game on the line late in the fourth quarter.  He was under pressure all three times, and those turnovers were the difference in the game -- especially given that the Patriots had zero turnovers, only once even putting the ball in jeopardy (a late Tom Brady throw that went through the hands of a Colts defender).

The Patriots defense used a new strategy to slow down the Colts passing game.  After the game, media commentators thought the Pats played mostly zone coverage, but the defensive backs revealed that they played mostly man-to-man (about 70% of the time).  Turns out the Pats coaches thought it would be easier to use exotic coverage to confuse the Colts receivers than to confuse Manning, so they disguised their coverage specifically to confuse the Colts receivers.  And it worked brilliantly, causing at least one INT and several incompletions, and a lot of obvious frustration for Manning and the offense.  And of course, the disguise also confused the media; but what else is new :)

The Foxboro Weather god (my friend Al) hoped the Patriots would come out in a 1-6 defense, and he wasn't far off.  They started the game with 2 linemen, 4 linebackers, and 5 defensive backs.  Vince Wilfork did a fantastic job plugging up the inside and freeing linebackers to stop the run.  And they definitely took advantage; Jerod Mayo continuing his NFL ascent with 15 tackles (he leads the league with 120 tackles on the year) and Gary Guyton improving his play markedly.  The Colts finished the first half with 9 yards on 10 carries, so it went pretty well.  Ron Brace and Gerard Warren also pitched in to hold the line; though none of the three linemen did much to pressure Manning.

The pressure came from the outside; Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich got hits on the Colts QB a few times, but mostly the pressure made Manning move and throw, which usually isn't good enough to stop him.  But it was this week, with his receivers confused by coverage.  Guyton and Brandon Spikes seem to switch roles from week to week, one having a solid game and the other making guest appearances but playing well when on the field.  This week Spikes was the mystery guest -- making only two tackles, but guessing right and making them for little gain (zero yards and one yard).

The biggest problem with the linebackers was the medium-middle passing game.  They were repeatedly torched by Colts tight end Jacob Tamme for 7- to 10-yard passes right down the middle, in front of one or two linebackers seemingly happy to tackle Tamme after he got the first down.  That mid-range pass gives the 2010 Patriots more trouble than just about anything else, and that means they are vulnerable to teams with enough outside pass-receiving talent to stretch them thin in the middle (i.e. Indy, San Deigo, and the Jets).

The secondary played a primary role in the victory.  Three interceptions speak for themselves, and the fact that they confused the Colts receivers speaks volumes about how hard they worked on the game plan.  Devin McCourty's INT was a gift, a long Manning throw when the receiver cut the route short.  But McCourty made an athletic play to catch it in bounds, and it was a game-changer at the time.  James Sanders' INT was a short ball thrown under pressure, and it sealed the game -- not a bad follow up for last week's AFC Defensive Player of the Week.

The third INT was by Brandon Meriweather, who had a nifty return to set up the Patriots first touchdown.  But as always with him, he giveth and taketh away.  Late in the first half, he took a terrible angle on corner coverage and Reggie Wayne hauled in a touchdown to make it 21-14 at the half, even though the Patriots had pretty much dominated.  The best safety combo the Pats have right now is Pat Chung and James Sanders, and Meriweather should think about that long and hard before he rests on his "I was a Pro Bowler last year" laurels.  Oh, and if cornerback Kyle Arrington can't cover a receiver, he at least needs to make the tackle after the catch.  One or the other please, Mr. Arrington.

On offense, Tom Brady was flawless in the first half; with just two incompletions and a 145.2 rating after 30 minutes.  The Pats scored on all three possessions before the break, mixing the run and pass well and keeping the chains moving with yards-after-contact.  Must have said "yards after contact" 10 times yesterday, noting that Wes Welker (on his touchdown), Danny Woodhead (on two important first downs), and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (on a dozen or more runs) all made significant yards after the first hit.  Woodhead's 36-yard touchdown dash included two broken tackles and great downfield blocking by Deion Branch and Welker.  And Green-Ellis' touchdown was just tough inside running and a broken tackle at the goal line.

The Colts apparently didn't want to get beaten by the Pats tight ends, holding them to two catches.  But they forgot to stop the run (168 yards, 4.9 yards a carry) and cover the wide receivers.  Wes Welker and Deion Branch combined for 12 catches and 128 yards, including 8 for first downs, another first down on a pass-interference penalty, and two more second-and-1 setups.  If both continue to produce this well, the Patriots could go a long way this season, given the talent they now have at tight end.  Now if Julian Edelman would stop dropping the ball, that would be sort of cool.

Nothing to report on special teams, other than the Patriots not missing any extra points -- woo-hoo!

And as for the coaching; they did a great job confusing the Colts offense and that was enough for a 3-point victory.  They bunged up the play-calling a bit in the fourth quarter; but no arguing with the results.

So where does that leave us?  Pats will be back at it Thursday afternoon, on the road in Detroit for the early Thanksgiving Day game.  The Lions haven't done well this year (2-8) and are down to their third or fourth QB.  With the short week and a road game, this might normally be worrisome; but the Lions apparently don't know how to win on Thanksgiving.  Even though they play on that day every year, they haven't won since 2003.  So sit back and enjoy on Thursday; should be a pleasurable experience if you are a Patriots fan.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots lead the league in scoring, despite being outperformed by their opponents in the following areas: total first downs (235 to 207), third down conversion rate (50.7% to 44.8%), fourth-down conversion rate (77.8% to 62.5%), total yards (3984 to 3394), average yards per play (5.9 to 5.6), and time of possession (33:01 to 28.16).

ALMOST the Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots almost ended the game with no penalties; Tully Banta-Cain's foolish personal foul late in the game was the only blemish.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Colts can't run and can't stop the run... they are going nowhere this year."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  8-2!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:

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The defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots opened the 2004 season on Thursday night against the Colts (September 9).  Pats won the game 27-24 (thank you, Vander-shank!).

Patriots 39, Steelers 26

Pittsburgh fans must hate Tom Brady the way I hated John Elway -- no matter how things looked beforehand or where the game was played, they just can't beat the guy.  Same story yesterday; a 39-26 victory that wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated.  The victory helped the 7-2 Pats keep pace with the Jets, who won earlier in the day, as the teams remain tied for first place in the AFC East.  And the victory came not a moment too soon, with the Colts coming to town next week and a short turn-around for a Turkey Day contest in Detroit.

Last night's game was the one Rob Gronkowski was supposed to have against Cleveland.  The Patriots continue to target the rookie tight end, and he bounced back from his worst game to dominate this one -- three touchdowns on five catches and superb blocking in both the running and passing games.  The 6' 7" Gronk is a beast to cover, and his production, coupled with a great game by Wes Welker (8 catches for 89 yards) should open things up for other receivers.  And aside from a few dropped passes (Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Brandon Tate), it was a flawless offensive performance.

Of course, none of that firepower would have been possible without stellar play from the O-line.  With Stephen Neal injured and out of the game, and the vaunted Steelers defense ready to bully and blitz the Pats to death, it was surprising that the Pats outgained them on the ground (103 to 76) and gave up zero sacks and only three QB hits.  Give credit to, Mr. Versatile, Dan Connolly, who stepped in for the injured Neal and didn't miss a beat, much like when he replaced holdout Logan Mankins the first seven games.

And speaking of Mankins, he came back at just the right time, playing the entire game and doing a great job run blocking and following through play-action fakes with pulls around end where he still managed to get good blocks in pass protection.  That is no easy task, and he was more than up to it.  Even oft-maligned Matt Light had a very good game; and perhaps deserves more praise, especially given that he goes up against the best pass rusher every week.  Tell you what, if he plays well next week against Indy, he'll get his own paragraph.

And as you might have guessed, with a decent running game (thank you BenJarvus Green-Ellis -- 18 carries for 87 yards) and facing very little pressure, Dr. Tom Brady carved up the suspect Steelers defensive backfield.  The Steelers hadn't let up a first quarter touchdown all year, but Brady marched the team to an 8-play, 70 yard touchdown drive to open the game.  The drive included his best throw, a laser to Gronkowski through a ridiculously small opening.  Brady now holds the best current career passer rating against Pittsburgh, and is only the second quarterback in NFL history with three consecutive 300-yard passing days against them.  Must be something about those black-and-gold uniforms that brings out the best in #12.  Maybe the Patriots should see if they can play the Bruins in up-coming years.

The young defense performed admirably.  Edge rushing by Jermaine Cunningham and Tully Banta-Cain pushed Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger up in the pocket, and Mike Wright did an outstanding job at nose tackle, pushing the line back into Roethlisberger.  Banta-Cain and Wright notched 1.5 sacks each, and had the Pittsburgh QB under constant pressure.  And for the most the pass rush kept him in the -- though Rob Ninkovich has some 'splaining to do about his whiff in the first half.

Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, and Pat Chung handled the run a lot more easily than I thought they would.  The Patriots rarely stunt or twist along the defensive line, but they did a lot of that last night, and it seemed to catch the Steelers off-guard.  Pittsburgh had a decent run or two, but for the most part their ground game was out of sync, and the Patriots are the first team to control that running attack all year.

Pat Chung makes a significant difference on this defense, bringing a hard-hitting attitude and making big plays the way Brandon Meriweather is supposed to.  And rookie corner Devin McCourty continues to impress, both with improved pass coverage and exceptional support against the run.  He is a sure tackler on edge running plays, he doesn't get beaten deep when his safety blitzes, and he has long arms and great technique.  That wooshing sound you hear is all the post-draft McCourty doubters doing an abrupt about-face.

In all candor, the defensive performance was just a little bit smoke and mirrors.  Remember that Pittsburgh dropped three touchdown passes during the game and lost their best wideout early on.  They even threw in some ill-timed penalties on a few drives, and the Patriots soft zone in the fourth quarter didn't work very well; even though the offense (and at one point, the defense) continued to put up points to keep the Steelers at bay.  But give the Pats defense credit; they hit harder than the Steelers, and the scheme was well conceived and brilliantly executed.

And after a week of worrying that special teams would suffer without Stephen Gostkowski... well, there appears to be something to worry about.  Shane Graham missed an extra point, and his kickoffs will not be the same weapon that Gostkowski's were.  But new long snapper Matt Katula acquitted himself well, and if they can get that extra point thing straightened out it'll be all good.  Kudos to the special teams coaches and players for pulling it together with less than a week to prepare with two new guys in critical positions.

And more kudos to the Patriots coaching staff.  The offense was imaginative and the mix of run/pass was the best of the year.  They didn't play into the strengths of their opponent -- throwing 65% of the time rather than foolishly "establishing the run" against the best run defense in the NFL -- and they made very good offensive adjustments at the half, witness touchdown drives of 78 and 80 yards in the third quarter.  And on defense, the coaches had them in the right position often enough and the blitzing and stunting confused Pittsburgh enough to slow them down.  Three points allowed in the first half are all you need to know about the defensive game-plan... but my advice is to rework that soft zone -- it looked really bad and didn't really take enough time off the clock.

So where does that leave us?  7-2 isn't a bad record at all, and the game next Sunday against the Colts is their next big test.  Indy leads the AFC South division, but that won't make them any less hungry to beat the Patriots.  They *always* play the Pats tough, so expect a dog fight.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots and Steelers each had exactly 15:00 of possession time in the first half.  And trust me, I've looked at enough box scores to know it's been a long time since that happened.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Gronkowski and McCourty have to be the Patriots offensive and defensive rookies of the year.  They are playing like five-year veterans."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  7-2!

Patriots 14, Browns 34

Last week at YourPatriots.blogspot.com:

[The Patriots] have a game against the 2-5 Browns next week.  But don't take that game too lightly -- the Browns beat the Saints the last time they played, and the last time [head coach Eric Mangini] had a bye week to prepare for the Patriots he unexpectedly beat them.

This week at YourPatriots.blogspot.com:

I warned you!

NFL teams are just too closely matched to have an off week like the Patriots did yesterday, and with two critical fumbles and multiple dropped passes (and off-target passes), the Pats lost to the Browns 34-14 in Cleveland.  The game leaves them at 6-2 and in a first place tie with the Jets, who pulled out an overtime win against the Lions, and leaves them scratching their heads over a game that some had labeled "a second bye week" for the local 11.

There were too many bad plays and players to single them all out, but here were some critical plays that went badly awry and players who underperformed.

The Browns first kickoff was purposefully left short to avoid Brandon Tate's explosive return abilities.  Rob Gronkowski signaled a fair catch at the 20, and should have caught it.  But inexplicably, he let it go and a shocked Sammie Morris tried to dive on it, but it squirted free and the Browns recovered.  Two plays later, the Browns punched it in for a 10-0 lead less than 4:00 into the game.

It was a terrible play on a lot of fronts.  Gronkowski appeared ready to block for Morris; but once he signaled fair catch he can't do that anymore.  So once he'd signaled for the fair catch, there was really no other option.  It was a very bad rookie mistake, and one that should earn him a few extra laps at practice this week.

However, it wasn't his only bad play.  On the Patriots opening drive, he dropped a short swing pass that would have left them with third-and-short, but instead it was third-and-seven.  The next drop wasn't his fault; but he had several others during the game.  He also fumbled at the Browns' 2 yard line just before the half, on a drive that appeared destined to leave the dominated Patriots just 3 points behind at the break.

Gronk wasn't the only one with dropped passes: Aaron Hernandez had two, Deion Branch had one, Wes Welker had an uncharacteristic drop, and Danny Woodhead "contributed" one of his own.  And in another terrible play, Brandon Tate dropped an easy one across the middle that would have made it first down in Browns territory with the game still in doubt in the third quarter.  No excuse; he just flat out dropped it -- and the Patriots had to punt again.

Tom Brady was clearly frustrated with the drops and with what he thought were bad patterns.  But he didn't help the cause, his throws were all over the place -- some too high, some too low, and some to the wrong spot.  For the most part the protection was mediocre; though the Browns only got one sack, they often made Brady throw off his back foot or only after sliding in the pocket.

And speaking of the offensive line; maybe they need to start Dan Connolly instead of Logan Mankins.  Because they were pathetic yesterday.  No push in the running game, three-man rushes that forced Brady out of the pocket, bad blocking on unsuccessful screens, and some free rushers coming at Brady.  Mankins didn't do much for his erstwhile free agency campaign in 2011; though it doesn't all fall to him.  Sebastian Vollmer got knocked on his ass a few times, and Stephen Neal whiffed on at least two one-on-one assignments.

Browns running back Peyton Hillis ran right through the defense; much more so than Ray Rice in the playoffs last year.  The Patriots tackling was terrible -- Hillis bounced off a three-man group at the goal-line then swung around them an early touchdown.  And every time the defense needed to make a sure tackle to stop a drive, the Browns players outran them to the corner (Jerod Mayo, Jermaine Cunningham, and Kyle Arrington), shook off arm tackles (Brandon Spikes and Tully Banta-Cain), or plowed over them (Brandon Deadrick, Vince Wilfork, and Gary Guyton).

When Jonathan Wilihite was your surest tackler, you *know* it was a bad day.  But don't think he had a great game, either.  In the first half, the Pats desperately needed to hold the Browns to a field goal to keep the game close.  They had them in third-and-four, and called the perfect defense -- an overload blitz.  Wilhite came in unblocked with a free shot at Browns QB Colt McCoy.  But Wilhite did the one thing he should never have done -- missed McCoy and let him break contain to the outside, where he threw a six-yard completion.  The next play was a Cleveland touchdown, rather than a field goal attempt.

On "special" teams, the entire kickoff return team was pathetic.  It was as if they'd never seen a a short kickoff -- no one knew what to do with the ball.  Aside from Gronkowski's screw up, Alge Crumpler did a fair catch with no one around him.  The Patriots best returner of the day was offensive lineman Dan Connolly -- who took the short kickoffs and ran them straight ahead for positive yardage.  And at the end of the game, Stephen Gostkowski was injured enough that Wes Welker kicked an extra point and the ensuing kickoff.

Add to that another bad snap by Jake Ingram (on a punt), and the fact that they controlled dangerous return man Joshua Cribbs by kicking it short and giving the Browns a short field -- and it was a very bad day on special teams.

I won't mention coaching, other than to say it's obvious which team was better prepared for the game.

So where does that leave us?  Well... 6-2 projects to 12-4 over an entire season, and that would surely get the Patriots in the playoffs.  No telling how the second half will go; but with a young defense and some young skill position players, there are bound to be down weeks like this.  In fact, there might be more of them a the season goes on, because the college football season is about 10 or 11 games long -- so some of those players will hit the rookie wall soon.  Steelers in Pittsburgh up next; hold onto your hat if they play poorly again.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The oddity is that for the first time in 200+ updates I don't have time to research a decent oddity.  Maybe I'll do two next week instead -- sorry :(

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If the Randy Moss trade was addition by subtraction, was Logan Mankins' return subtraction by addition?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  6-2!

Patriots 28, Vikings 18

It's weeks like this when you should cherish being a Patriots fan.  In most NFL cities, you get one good year out of three, owing to the unbalanced schedule and the fact that most teams don't draft well beyond the first 20 picks.  That's how it is in Minnesota -- and as if to prove it, the Vikings (who were in the NFC Championship Game last year) brought their can't-do attitude to Foxboro on Sunday and left with a 28-18 loss amid a lot of head scratching.  Meanwhile the Patriots continued their winning ways, sporting a 6-1 record that tops the entire NFL and puts them a game ahead in the division race.

At first, it looked like all-world running back Adrian Peterson would shred the Pats on the ground all day long, ripping off runs of 8, 7, 8, 9, 7, and 8 yards in the first half.  But it wasn't all bad; he was also stopped for no gain or a loss four times, including on a third-and-one to stop a drive and fourth-and-goal at the 1 yard line.  That last stop kept the game tied 7-7 at the half, and the tackle was made by rookies Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes.

The Patriots defense continues on the road to improvement.  After being completely unable to stop anyone on third down, they held the Vikings to 36% in that key stat (after holding the Ravens to 31% two weeks ago).  Moving Vince Wilfork to an outside line position seems to confound opposing offenses, creating mismatches for Wilfork and allowing Mike Wright to attack with speed against schemes designed to stop beef.  The young linemen also improve every week; with Brandon Deaderick earning another start and Myron Pryor and Ron Brace looking a *lot* better than they did last year.

And all that up-front scheming leaves the linebackers to run to the ball, and Jerod Mayo is close to returning to his 2008 form (you remember; when he won Defensive Rookie of the Year).  Mayo's inside running mate Brandon Spikes shows good instincts and now rarely runs himself out of a play.  And for regular readers of this blog, you know that is progress -- since he did that a *lot* at the beginning of the year.  Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich still aren't where the defense needs them to be in holding up against the run and pressuring the quarterback.  And there were holes yesterday in the intermediate passing game over the middle.  But at this point, much improved from the start of the season.

The secondary did a terrific job yesterday in man-coverage.  Not so much in the soft zone; but when corners Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty jam receivers at the line they can run with just about anyone and showed good tackling ability (save for one catch-and-run by Percy Harvin against Arrington).  And McCourty plays the ball a lot better now, getting turned to the ball to knock it down and avoid penalties.  He cut inside a route by Harvin to break up a long pass, and ripped the ball away from Harvin later in the quarter for the only INT of the game.  The safeties played very deep against Minnesota, taking them out of the intermediate passing zones, but they never got beaten deep... until Brandon Merriweather found himself singled up on Randy Moss and had to commit a penalty to save a touchdown.

The Patriots running game was the opposite of the Vikings'.  The Pats totaled only 9 yards in the first half, but changed the blocking schemes to break out with 113 yards in the last 30 minutes.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis broke 100 yards for the first time in his career (17 carries for 112 yards), and scored two touchdowns for the first time, too.  He showed good quickness, hitting the hole and then making decisive cuts to get enough extra real estate against the secondary, and he averaged an impressive 6.6 yards a carry.  And you can't say enough about Danny Woodhead, who has now fully stepped into the role Kevin Faulk occupied for so long.  Now that they do direct-snaps to Woodhead (probably the closest you'll ever get to the Wildcat from the Patriots), he's doing everything Faulk did -- including breaking tackles to get important first downs late in the game.

Tom Brady's day seemed pretty pedestrian; but he had a 65-yard touchdown that was one of his best plays with the Patriots -- period.  He slid away from the pass rush, broke contain and spun away from more pressure before finding Brandon Tate breaking free down the sideline.  Oh, and Brady stood his ground to make that throw in the face of a big hit coming his way.  Just a great overall play.  Other than that, hewas cool and efficient, a few throw-aways to avoid sacks or INTs, and very good on third down.

The O-line was like the running game; not much in the first half but more push and better protection in the second.  Given how they man-handled a very good Vikings defensive line in the second half, it makes me wonder how good they will be if Logan Mankins, one of the best guards in the league, returns to play the last six games of the season, as he will reportedly do today.

On special teams, there were zero mistakes on long snaps; so it appears that Jake Ingram got all those problems out of the way against the Chargers.  It was another good day for both Zoltan Mesko and Stephen Gostkowski; with Mesko getting the Patriots out of a hole with a 55-yard punt.

And it bears special mention that the Patriots coaches have out-adjusted their last four opponents at the half.  The reason it bears mentioning is that it hasn't been consistently true for 2+ years.  But the Dolphins, Ravens, Chargers, and now Vikings were outscored in the second half, and the Patriots offense in particular has performed a lot better after the break.

So where does that leave us?  Well, 6-1 isn't bad at all, putting the Patriots on pace for 13 or 14 wins for the year.  As mentioned, they lead the NFL at the moment, and they have a game against the 2-5 Browns next week.  But don't take that game too lightly -- the Browns beat the Saints the last time they played, and the last time Mangini had a bye week to prepare for the Patriots he unexpectedly beat them.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Patriots inside linebacker Jerod Mayo leads the entire NFL in tackles with 86, even though he has played fewer games than the second and third place players.  Trivia question: when was the last time the league leader in tackles was from the Patriots (answer below)?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe Logan Mankins should talk to Randy Moss before he fully commits to leaving the Patriots.  The grass ain't always greener."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  6-1!

PPS.  Trivia answer:
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Okay... trick question -- the NFL has only kept official tackling stats for a few years, and the Patriots never had anyone lead the league.

Patriots 23, Chargers 20 (10/24/2010)

The Patriots and Chargers held a contest yesterday to see who wanted to win the game less -- and the Chargers came out on top at losing -- dropping a 23-20 decision in the comedy of errors that masqueraded as the CBS featured football game of the week.  The victory ties the 5-1 Patriots with the Jets for the AFC East lead (and in fact, for the best record in the NFL, along with Pittsburgh).  The team will undoubtedly crank up the welcome wagon for the return of Randy Moss next Sunday.  Insert Halloween puns here.

The Pats offense produced their lowest halftime yardage in almost seven years, and it was frustrating to watch.  In the first 30 minutes, Tom Brady completed 6 of 16 passes for 35 measly yards and was sacked three times for 24 yards.  The offense went 0 for 6 on third down conversions, was just 33% in the red zone, and ran for only 27 yards.  Overall the team committed six penalties, including on their first two kicks, had two really bad snaps on punts, and allowed the Chargers 146 total yards to their 38.

So how did they lead 13-3 at the half, you ask.  One word: turnovers.  San Diego receivers lost three fumbles, the first on a big hit, but the last two on the worst kind of mistakes you'll ever see at the NFL level.  Wide receiver Rich Goodman left the ball on the ground when he thought he was down by contact, but he'd never been touched, and safety James Sanders pounced on it.  Then running back Jacob Hester *thought* a throw was an incomplete pass, but it was a live ball because it was a lateral, and Rob Ninkovich scooped it up and returned it 63 yards.

The Patriots got 10 points after those two plays, and that was the obvious difference at the half.

The second half started well, with a 17-play, 79 yard drive for a New England touchdown.  When the Chargers could only muster a field goal in response, and the Pats answered with 3 points of their own, it looked like they'd coast to a win.  After all, a 23-6 lead should be safe with 11 minutes left in the game.  But not in this oddball affair.

San Diego marched down the field against a soft zone defense, scoring to make it 23-13 on a Philip Rivers touchdown pass.  Then the Patriots made a basic mistake of their own, letting the Chargers recover an onside kick when they *knew* it was coming.  (Note: they need to coach that better; two Patriots appeared to be waiting for the ball to go 10 yards, even though that requirement only applies to the kicking team.)  And wouldn't you know it, another Chargers touchdown to make it a 3-point game.

After a conventional kickoff, the Patriots went 4-and-out, opting to go for it on fourth-and-one -- and losing yard.  But give the Patriots defense credit, they made the Chargers try a long field goal (50 yards, after yet another stupid penalty), and the kick went off the upright and was no good.

As strange as the game was, it wasn't all bad.  Jerod Mayo is returning to his tackle-machine ways, and he couldn't do it without improved play from the D-line, which is doing a nice job keeping the other team's O-line off the Patriots linebackers.  Devin McCourty is still a bit of trick-or-treat, but he did a nice job on his interception, and had tight coverage about half the time.

Linebacker Jermaine Cunningham gets closer and closer to the QB every game, and did a nice job holding the edge against the run... most of the time.  And the off-set defensive line ploy, where Vince Wilfork plays left or right instead of on the nose, worked out very well most of the last two games.  Teams don't seem to be able to audible into a different play, and they end up running right at Vince more often than not -- and most of the time that's good for the Patriots.

The downside for the defense comes when you see Gary Guyton on the field (the tackle-missing machine), or when Kyle Arrington singles up against anyone.  There probably isn't a receiver in the league that can't beat Arrington one-on-one, so they need to give him safety or linebacker help.  And of course, seeing safety Pat Chung leave the game with an injury was not a good thing.

On offense, the line did not give Brady much time, and they couldn't run the ball.  The best drives they had involved lots of short passes and creative design to get Aaron Hernandez the ball.  But their thinness at running back and smallish offensive line came back to bite them in this game.

Thankfully, what didn't end up biting them were the bad snaps by Jake Ingram.  Ingram had a *great* first season (2009), missing on only one snap all year -- and that was on a field goal that Gostkowski made anyway.  But something was up yesterday.  Ingram had two high snaps on field goals, bounced three snaps to punter Zoltan Mesko, and added a holding call.  Here's hoping he got all of this out of his system in one game; because long snapping can be like putting in golf -- you never know when you might lose your touch, and it's tough to get it back.

The coaching was unremarkable; except for the two failed replay challenges and foolhardy decision to run wide on fourth-and-one.  Misdirection is your friend against a fast, aggressive defense, so a play-action fake or naked bootleg is a better bet in that situation.  Though a punt might have been good, too.

So where does that leave us?  As stated above, there are three teams at 5-1, and your Patriots are one of them.  The Vikings come to town next week, and even though they are 2-4 they are a dangerous team to play right now.  They are desperate for a win to keep up in a weak division, they have a stout defense and a dangerous offense.  Over/under on the number of Randy Moss costumes in the stands: 1,324... place your bets through legal channels only, please.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots won the last two games by the same score: 23-20 over the Ravens and Chargers.  They last pulled off that feat the first two weeks of the 2007 season, when they won 38-14 over the Jets and, believe it or not, the Chargers.

Bonus Oddity: The offensively challenged Titans and Raiders are the only two teams with more points scored than the Patriots.  Trivia question: why then are the Patriots still ranked as the #1 scoring offense in the league (answer below)?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Why does Norv Turner still have a job?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  5-1!

PPS.  Trivia answer:

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Both the Titans and Raiders have played one more game than the Patriots; so New England's 29.5 points per game still rank #1.