Patriots 23, Chargers 20 (10/24/2010)

The Patriots and Chargers held a contest yesterday to see who wanted to win the game less -- and the Chargers came out on top at losing -- dropping a 23-20 decision in the comedy of errors that masqueraded as the CBS featured football game of the week.  The victory ties the 5-1 Patriots with the Jets for the AFC East lead (and in fact, for the best record in the NFL, along with Pittsburgh).  The team will undoubtedly crank up the welcome wagon for the return of Randy Moss next Sunday.  Insert Halloween puns here.

The Pats offense produced their lowest halftime yardage in almost seven years, and it was frustrating to watch.  In the first 30 minutes, Tom Brady completed 6 of 16 passes for 35 measly yards and was sacked three times for 24 yards.  The offense went 0 for 6 on third down conversions, was just 33% in the red zone, and ran for only 27 yards.  Overall the team committed six penalties, including on their first two kicks, had two really bad snaps on punts, and allowed the Chargers 146 total yards to their 38.

So how did they lead 13-3 at the half, you ask.  One word: turnovers.  San Diego receivers lost three fumbles, the first on a big hit, but the last two on the worst kind of mistakes you'll ever see at the NFL level.  Wide receiver Rich Goodman left the ball on the ground when he thought he was down by contact, but he'd never been touched, and safety James Sanders pounced on it.  Then running back Jacob Hester *thought* a throw was an incomplete pass, but it was a live ball because it was a lateral, and Rob Ninkovich scooped it up and returned it 63 yards.

The Patriots got 10 points after those two plays, and that was the obvious difference at the half.

The second half started well, with a 17-play, 79 yard drive for a New England touchdown.  When the Chargers could only muster a field goal in response, and the Pats answered with 3 points of their own, it looked like they'd coast to a win.  After all, a 23-6 lead should be safe with 11 minutes left in the game.  But not in this oddball affair.

San Diego marched down the field against a soft zone defense, scoring to make it 23-13 on a Philip Rivers touchdown pass.  Then the Patriots made a basic mistake of their own, letting the Chargers recover an onside kick when they *knew* it was coming.  (Note: they need to coach that better; two Patriots appeared to be waiting for the ball to go 10 yards, even though that requirement only applies to the kicking team.)  And wouldn't you know it, another Chargers touchdown to make it a 3-point game.

After a conventional kickoff, the Patriots went 4-and-out, opting to go for it on fourth-and-one -- and losing yard.  But give the Patriots defense credit, they made the Chargers try a long field goal (50 yards, after yet another stupid penalty), and the kick went off the upright and was no good.

As strange as the game was, it wasn't all bad.  Jerod Mayo is returning to his tackle-machine ways, and he couldn't do it without improved play from the D-line, which is doing a nice job keeping the other team's O-line off the Patriots linebackers.  Devin McCourty is still a bit of trick-or-treat, but he did a nice job on his interception, and had tight coverage about half the time.

Linebacker Jermaine Cunningham gets closer and closer to the QB every game, and did a nice job holding the edge against the run... most of the time.  And the off-set defensive line ploy, where Vince Wilfork plays left or right instead of on the nose, worked out very well most of the last two games.  Teams don't seem to be able to audible into a different play, and they end up running right at Vince more often than not -- and most of the time that's good for the Patriots.

The downside for the defense comes when you see Gary Guyton on the field (the tackle-missing machine), or when Kyle Arrington singles up against anyone.  There probably isn't a receiver in the league that can't beat Arrington one-on-one, so they need to give him safety or linebacker help.  And of course, seeing safety Pat Chung leave the game with an injury was not a good thing.

On offense, the line did not give Brady much time, and they couldn't run the ball.  The best drives they had involved lots of short passes and creative design to get Aaron Hernandez the ball.  But their thinness at running back and smallish offensive line came back to bite them in this game.

Thankfully, what didn't end up biting them were the bad snaps by Jake Ingram.  Ingram had a *great* first season (2009), missing on only one snap all year -- and that was on a field goal that Gostkowski made anyway.  But something was up yesterday.  Ingram had two high snaps on field goals, bounced three snaps to punter Zoltan Mesko, and added a holding call.  Here's hoping he got all of this out of his system in one game; because long snapping can be like putting in golf -- you never know when you might lose your touch, and it's tough to get it back.

The coaching was unremarkable; except for the two failed replay challenges and foolhardy decision to run wide on fourth-and-one.  Misdirection is your friend against a fast, aggressive defense, so a play-action fake or naked bootleg is a better bet in that situation.  Though a punt might have been good, too.

So where does that leave us?  As stated above, there are three teams at 5-1, and your Patriots are one of them.  The Vikings come to town next week, and even though they are 2-4 they are a dangerous team to play right now.  They are desperate for a win to keep up in a weak division, they have a stout defense and a dangerous offense.  Over/under on the number of Randy Moss costumes in the stands: 1,324... place your bets through legal channels only, please.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots won the last two games by the same score: 23-20 over the Ravens and Chargers.  They last pulled off that feat the first two weeks of the 2007 season, when they won 38-14 over the Jets and, believe it or not, the Chargers.

Bonus Oddity: The offensively challenged Titans and Raiders are the only two teams with more points scored than the Patriots.  Trivia question: why then are the Patriots still ranked as the #1 scoring offense in the league (answer below)?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Why does Norv Turner still have a job?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  5-1!

PPS.  Trivia answer:

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Both the Titans and Raiders have played one more game than the Patriots; so New England's 29.5 points per game still rank #1.

Patriots 23, Ravens 20 (10/17/2010)

A great game yesterday between two of the top franchises of the past decade, with the Patriots coming out on top of a 23-20 overtime thriller.  The win puts the Pats at 4-1, tied for the second best record in the entire NFL and a half-game behind the Jets for the AFC East lead.  And on deck is a trip to the west coast to take on a reeling San Diego team.

There is a theory among some that you do whatever you can to avoid playing your way out of the playoffs in the first half of the season.  Dig an 0-6 hole, the theory goes, and you'll never climb out, but go 2-4 and you can still make a playoff run.  Well, the Patriots applied that thinking to the game yesterday, surviving first half domination to trail only 10-7, giving themselves a chance to make a run in the last 30 minutes.  Or make that 43 minutes, including a wee bit of overtime to decide the issue.

I don't have time for an in-depth breakdown of the game; so here are a half-dozen observations.

1.  The Patriots showed a more diverse offense with Randy Moss out of the picture.  Deion Branch caught 9 for 98 yards, including a crucial touchdown and two important grabs in overtime.  When the inside running of BenJarvus Green-Ellis stalled, they ran Danny Woodhead to the outside with success, and they called several misdirection plays, always good against an aggressive defense.  They went no-huddle for a while and got good blocking from the tight ends.

Bill O'Brien's play-calling displayed real imagination.  A particular favorite was the fake screen and pass up the seam to tight end Aaron Hernandez out of the bunch formation.  Not only did it gain good yardage, but it gives upcoming opponents something to think about before they jump the screen from that formation -- and it's *always* good when a defense thinks instead of reacts.

2.  They miss Kevin Faulk; but Woodhead and Hernandez pick up enough slack to make the loss tolerable.  Woodhead is small and plays with his pads low, making him very difficult to stop on initial contact.  He's quick around end and his improvement in the passing game was obvious yesterday (5 catches for 52 yards).

Hernandez has played four positions: wide receiver, slot receiver, tight end, and sometimes halfback, and they got him the ball from each of those spots.  The opposition doesn't seem to know quite how to handle Hernandez; he beats linebackers and slowish safeties, but teams don't want to commit a corner or even a nickelback to the tight end.  Quite the conundrum; should be fun to watch Hernandez punish teams for the rest of the season.

3.  The O-line deserves praise for giving Brady all day on some plays (including the touchdown to Branch) and for excellent scheme and execution in the outside running game.  But a closer look reveals three sacks and several free blitzers that busted up plays and led to Brady's only "real" interception.  The inside run was non-existent, too.

Overall a below-average performance.  Communication problems that lead to free blitzers are to be expected in road games when you can't hear... they should not happen at home.

4.  The Patriots defense can't stop both the run and pass out of their base set, but the substitute packages are doing better.  Replace Mike Wright with Ron Brace to beef up the line and it's tough to run against the Pats.  Replace Wilfork with a linebacker and Brandon Spikes with Gary Guyton and it's tough to pass.

The problems come when they don't guess right.  They can still stop the run okay with the pass-stopping package, but when their run stoppers are in the game they can't stop the pass at all.  Brandon Spikes is getting better and better at anticipating run or pass, and Jermaine Cunningham disrupts more plays each week.  But their base defense just can't defend both aspects of the game.

Baltimore doesn't have a balanced enough attack to really attack this defensive weakness, but several of their up-coming opponents do.  Pittsburgh, Indy, the Jets, and Green Bay all have the firepower to make the Pats pay when they are in the wrong substitution package.  Heck, San Diego might.


5.  Can we finally put to rest the idiocy of "the Ravens and Ray Rice ran all over the Patriots" in the playoffs last year?  Rice started that game with an 83-yard touchdown.  Since then, here are his numbers over two games:

49 carries for 164 (3.3 average, long run of 16 yards)

So please spare me how the Ravens out-toughed the Patriots and imposed their will on them last January.  It was more a poor performance by Tom Brady that cost the Patriots so dearly in that game.  The fact is the Ravens have been ineffective running the ball against the Patriots for over two full games now (including overtime yesterday) -- so the media can stop harping on the Pats for something that just isn't true.

6.  Stephen Gostkowski channeled Adam Vinatieri yesterday.  On a windy day he went 3-3 on field goals, dead-eying one to tie the game late and one to win it in overtime.  He also stuck 5 of 6 kickoffs into the end zone.  If you think that's no biggie, remember that his opposite number booted one out of bounds and the Patriots cashed in the advantageous field position for their only second-half touchdown.

Note: punter Zoltan Mesko changed field position three times in the game, with a 54-yard boot and a pooch punt when the Patriots were holding on by a thread in the first half.  And his most important punt this year was the 65-yard bomb in the fourth quarter, just when it appeared the Ravens were going to get good field position.

So where does that leave us?  There are only 3 teams in the NFL with just a single loss, so 4-1 is pretty good.  San Diego might be desperate for a win next Sunday, and they have often beaten the Patriots in the regular season.  But without some of their weapons from yesteryear, the Chargers might have more trouble this time than in the past.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Seattle Seahawks are the only team in the NFC West that has scored more points than they have allowed this season.  And they are only +1 on the year.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Expect the Ravens to see a steady dose of outside runs and misdirection plays.  The Pats killed them with that stuff."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  4-1!

Patriots Get Even Thinner with Moss Departure

You have no doubt read or heard that the Patriots traded Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings, a home-coming for Moss, who started his NFL career there.  The Pats reportedly received the Vikings 2011 third-round pick, and the Vikings received a deep-ball threat they desperately need before their 2010 season crashes and burns.

Moss' departure is a double-edged sword for the Patriots.  The pessimists say they lost their only deep threat, a receiver with 50+ touchdowns in three years and who commanded double coverage by all but the most talented defenses.  The optimists say that Brady threw to Moss much too often and will point to his pouting on the sidelines and post-game rant after the opening day win as distractions the team can live without.

As usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.  I have criticized Brady for chucking passes to Moss even when he was covered, hoping Randy could come down with the ball or at least knock it down.  That worked in 2007; but in 2009 it twice led to bad interceptions in games the Patriots lost (Indy and Miami).  But I have also praised Moss for playing hurt and accepting the decoy role as other Patriots receivers benefited from his presence.  No chance the Patriots go 11-5 with QB Matt Cassel in 2008.

But when I read the news, I thought the new Patriots were aptly described in the title of a Stephen King novel.  "Thinner" was published by King under a pseudonym in 1984, and in it, the main character is cursed with becoming continually thinner.  It continues until he is barely able to walk and awaits his fate of inevitable heart failure while a close friend frantically tries to find a way to save him.

And that describes perfectly this Patriots team.  They once sported depth at most positions that was the envy of the league.  Richard Seymour goes down, plug in Jarvis Green and keep going.  Ty Law gets injured, put in rookie Randall Gayand the victories continue to pile up.  Lawyer Milloy leaves for more money and Eugene Wilson steps in and they win the Super Bowl.

But the 2010 version is dangerously thin at several key positions.  With the departure of Moss, they are one injury away from double coverage on both Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez. One linebacker injury, and Gary Guyton starts the next game... and the opposing team salivates.  A suspension in the defensive backfield and Ty Law *might* be walking through that door; and he *will* be old and gray.  Another of their thirtysomething running backs goes down and I expect a call from Belichick, asking if I can learn the playbook by next week.

They is also a huge gulf between the starting and backup quarterback, and the defensive line is already "by committee" -- so an injury there would put Ron Brace into that rotation... not good, people.

From a top-to-bottom talent level, the Patriots were stout and hearty in 2004.  But since then, they looked a little lanky in 2005, and pale and peaked in 2006.  They got a top-line talent infusion in 2007, but the aging defense got rickety in 2008, and the gulf between starters and backups was positively cavernous in 2009.

It might not come back to bite them, but trading Randy Moss left them shakily thin at yet another position.  My most recent "Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom" was "Brandon Tate... worth the wait."  That better be true; because if he and Hernandez can't stretch the field, it'll be a lot tougher for Wes Welker to get eight catches a game, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to average 4.6 yards a carry.

Here's hoping the Patriots can avoid key injuries or suspensions.  Otherwise, the season might end as horribly as "Thinner" did -- and trust me folks, it was not a pretty ending to that story.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

Patriots 41, Dolphins 14 (10/4/2010)

Belichick calls it "the kicking game," but on Monday night they were truly "special teams."  The Pats survived a tough first half and blew the doors off the joint after the break, putting up a 41-14 victory in Miami.  The win ties the Patriots with the Jets for first place in the AFC East (both teams at 3-1), and the bye week gives them some extra time to bask in the glow of a well-deserved victory.

It was the kind of special teams destruction usually reserved for college and high school games, and frankly something akin to what we saw around these parts in the Patriots 2001 Super Bowl run.  The Dolphins have had their special teams problems this year -- getting a punt blocked against the Jets, and apparently twice in the pre-season.  But they completely melted down against the Pats, and Miami already fired the special teams coach as a result.

The special teams dominance actually started with some less remarkable and often unnoticed plays in the first half.  Zoltan Mesko booted a 60-yard punt to change field position in the first quarter, and he pulled down two errant snaps on Stephen Gostkowski's field goals.  And not only did Gostkowski put those two through the uprights, he nailed his kickoffs, sending five of the seven into (or through) the end zone for touchbacks.  And Miami is not built to drive a long field, so winning the field position battle was important to staying in the game in the first half.

The Patriots started the second half with a big special teams play that was a harbinger of things to come.  Brandon Tate looped around a perfect block by Sammy Morris and outran an out-of-position Bobby Carpenter around the edge before scooting up the sideline for a touchdown --  his second touchdown on a kickoff return this year.  Interestingly, both have come on the opening kickoff of the second half.

Patrick Chung kept the special teams train rolling, with a blocked punt to end the next Dolphins drive.  Two Miami blockers (one of which was Bobby Carpenter again) whiffed on the play, allowing Chung an inside lane, which is a big no-no on special teams.  An inside move is the quickest way to the kicker, so special teamers are taught never to let anyone them to the inside.  Two plays later, BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran the ball in for a touchdown on a great draw-play call.

After the teams traded touchdowns, Chung struck again, blocking a field goal attempt.  This time special teams scored it by themselves; backup defensive back Jarrad Page knocked the bouncing ball forward and Kyle Arrington scored his first NFL touchdown on a 35-yard return.  And that effectively put the game out of reach.

Chung wasn't done either.  On the defensive side, he picked off a Chad Henne pass and returned it for a touchdown in the fourth quarter.  And that put him in good company, the Patriots picked off four passes on the night.  Rob Ninkovich snagged the first two INTs of his career, both times reading the play perfectly and undercutting the route for the pick.  Good thing he did, too -- those plays were both in the first half, when the outcome was still in doubt.

The Pats defense tried some unconventional fronts, putting Mike Wright and Myron Pryor on the nose and shifting Vince Wilfork to the left, only to watch the Dolphins run the other way.  The plan produced uneven pressure at best, a few sacks and some hurries.  But most of Henne's bad performance should be chalked up to poor reads and bad choices.  He had a lot of time, but for this week at least, the Patriots bend-but-don't-break defense proved the perfect choice to defeat an overmatched quarterback. 

On offense, the Pats tried passing from an empty backfield, and the plan seemed sure to get Brady injured.  So they ran the ball more, using up clock and getting some rest for their defense.  Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead combined for 112 yards on 24 carries, and a touchdown each.  Pretty respectable for two undrafted free agents.  (Trivia question: name another undrafted free agent who led the Patriots in a significant category in this game.  Answer below.)  Green-Ellis runs with power and gets every yard the play can get, and Woodhead is a smallish guy who is tough to find when he runs inside, and he's been very exciting (and excitable) since coming to the team two weeks ago.

With the running game in gear, and facing multiple short fields after turnovers, Tom Brady finished with pedestrian numbers: 19 of 24 for 153 yards and a touchdown.  Not going to light the world on fire with those numbers, but frankly he didn't have many yards to gain for most of the game.  The O-line did a good job protecting him once they returned to a staple of their offense: short, ball-control passing.  Wes Welker got involved, and ended up with 8 grabs for 70 yards.  And tight end Aaron Hernandez continues to be a focal point, catching 5 passes before Miami adjusted their scheme to the rookie.

The coaching staff deserves special mention.  Special teams coach Scott O'Brien exploited the Dolphins scheme brilliantly.  It was the Patriots best special teams performance since the playoff win over Pittsburgh in 2002 (two touchdowns, one on a punt return and one on a blocked field goal return).

And the defensive staff did their homework, putting players in position for three INTs and stopping Miami short on a late fourth down.  Belichick took three defensive timeouts in the second half, twice stopping the drive cold within two plays.  A masterful job on special teams, and for a change, much improved halftime adjustments.

And on offense, they changed their plans when Miami made it clear they would not be beaten on long passes by Brady.  The Patriots ran more and used short passes to keep the chains and the clock moving.  All around, a great job by the coaching staff, against a team that came pretty close to sweeping them in 2009.

So where does that leave us?  3-1 is a lot better than 2-2, especially going into a bye week with a difficult schedule to follow.  The win puts them in a first place tie in the AFC East, and gives them a 2-1 division record so far.  Here's hoping Fred Taylor can get healthy over the bye week, because they will need more than three healthy running backs for the balance of the season.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: By now you've probably heard that the Patriots are the first team to score touchdowns passing, rushing, on an interception return, a kickoff return, and a return of a blocked field goal in the same game.  Interestingly, what no team had ever done in NFL history, the Patriots did in one half of football -- scoring all those touchdowns after halftime on Monday.  Hope you didn't fall asleep :)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Brandon Tate... worth the wait."

Keep the faith (and enjoy the week off),

- Scott

PS.  3-1!

PPS.  Trivia answer:

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Undrafted Wes Welker led the team in receptions (8) and yards (70).  Give yourself a half-point if you guessed Rob Ninkovich (who led with 2 interceptions) -- but he was drafted by New Orleans in 2006 (fifth round).