Patriots 45, Lions 24

Looks like those second half adjustments are much improved.  The Patriots thrashed the Lions 45-24 yesterday, bludgeoning them 35-7 in the final 30 minutes and improving to 9-2 on the season, still tied with the Jets for first in the AFC East.  (Trivia question #1: name the other game this year when the Patriots outscored their opponent 35-7 in the second half... answer below.)  And that sets up the latest "NFL game of the year" on December 6, when the Jets come to town to play the Pats for conference and division supremacy.

The Patriots came out flat in the first half.  Dropped passes, too much pressure by the Lions D-line, poor kickoff coverage, and too many yards and points given up to a team that shouldn't have been on the field with them.  The Pats whimpered into the half down 17-10, and given the Lions domination of the line of scrimmage it could have been a lot worse.

When they went four-and-out on the first series of the second half, it looked like a dangerous opponent might just sneak out a win.  But they were saved by Devin McCourty's fourth interception of the year; he cut in front of all-world receiver Calvin Johnson and saved the game for the Patriots.  They took full advantage of the short field, this time going four-and-touchdown instead (short throw to Wes Welker) to tie the game.  After the teams traded touchdowns, the Lions reverted to form: they missed a field goal, committed stupid penalties to stop their own drives and extend Patriots drives, and turned the ball over again, specifically another McCourty INT.

McCourty impresses every week, and might be making a legitimate push for NFL defensive rookie of the year.  He returned the two INTs yesterday for 73 yards, and he might well have played every defensive snap this season for the Patriots.  He doesn't get beaten deep, makes sure tackles in the pass and run games, and he plays a lot bigger than his size (5' 10", 193).  His long reach and willingness to battle from the island position week after week make him a force to be considered by the other team.  Not Pro-Bowl level by any stretch of the imagination, but it makes one wonder what might have been if Leigh Bodden (last year's best corner) didn't get injured in the pre-season.

Lions QB Shaun Hill finished with 285 yards, but he averaged a paltry 5.8 yards per attempt (versus 12.1 for the Patriots), and that was largely a function of the Patriots trying not to get beaten deep.  The safety combo of James Sanders and Pat Chung is clearly their best, both players possessing great instincts and showing a keen understanding of the defense.  And even with Brandon Meriweather being more of a trick-or-treat player, the secondary finished yesterday's game with 24 tackles, 6 passes knocked down, and of course the 2 INTs.  They also had a few hard hits, to separate receivers from the ball, especially late in the game; though Chung needs to know he can't lower his head to hit the QB -- that was an easy penalty call.

You know your D-line is banged up when Kyle Love gets significant playing time, which he did.  The rushing yards against them looked worse than they really were (127 yards and 4.8 yards per carry) -- there were several long runs that skewed the stats.  Overall the D-line and linebackers did a decent job stopping the run, especially when you consider they spent most of the game in nickel to stop the pass.  Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo stuffed most of the inside runs, and Brandon Spikes and the secondary got some plays that went outside.  But they still need better containment on wide runs; Jermaine Cunningham is better than Tully Banta-Cain at this, but there isn't anyone who does it nearly as well as Mike Vrabel did for years.

And even though the Patriots D-line provided very little quarterback pressure, the biggest defensive problem continues to be the medium-middle passing zones.  Mayo can't cover any decent back or tight end one-one-one, and Brandon Spikes is more of a run stopper.  Gary Guyton can cover receivers, but he guesses wrong too often and those plays extend drives.  And Rob Ninkovich and Pierre Woods won't be the answer.  That might mean cheating up a safety to cover the middle-medium passes, but that would open them up to longer passes against teams with enough receiver talent -- which would be the bulk of their remaining schedule and just about any team they'd face if they get into the playoffs.

There isn't an easy answer to this puzzle; they will have to go with the players they have and hope they can out-scheme or out-guess their opponents.  Thankfully, their offense can score with the best of them, so they can lean on that sometimes.

And speaking of offense, two men on the Patriots had absolutely stellar days yesterday: quarterback Tom Brady and offensive coordinator (in all but title) Bill O'Brien.  Brady finished with a "perfect" quarterback rating of 158.3, and led the team on five consecutive touchdown drives to salt the game away.  And for those worried about the lack of quick-strike offense without Randy Moss, the three long drives in that list were: 3 plays for 87 yards in 1:38; 5 plays for 64 yards in 2:15; and 7 plays for 84 yards in 4:25.  Brady missed a few passes in the first half; but his pinpoint accuracy and spread-the-field mentality paid huge dividends after the break.  He completed passes to seven different receivers, and it would have been eight if Brandon Tate could hold onto the ball.

And Bill O'Brien (or whomever is calling the plays these days) called a superb game.  A great mix of run-pass, great plays called to overcome long yardage situations, and once the Lions were on the ropes he diced them up with mis-directions, power runs, and play-action calls for big chunks of yardage.  His maturation as an offensive coordinator is evident in how they handled the transitions when Kevin Faulk was injured, when Randy Moss was traded, and when Logan Mankins returned to a then-cohesive O-line.  And of course, an OC makes his name in how he calls a game, and yesterday was Bill O'Brien's best since the 2009 Tennessee blowout (Pats won 59-0).

Deion Branch (3 catches for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns), Wes Welker (8-90, 2 touchdowns), and Rob Gronkowski (5-65) beguiled the Lions with speed, quickness, and power.  Branch didn't catch a ball until the second half, but he twisted and turned defenders on consecutive catches for 79- and 22-yard scores.  Welker out-quicked the defense for drive-sustaining grabs all game long, and showed determination in muscling his way into the end zone on both touchdowns.  Gronkowski beat the Lions run-blocking, in the short passing game, and up the seam for long gains.  He has the power blow over defenders and the height and wingspan to outjump them.

The running attack was not dominant, except when it needed to be.  The strength of the Lions defense is along the line, so the Pats didn't waste much time trying to run it down their throats.  But the run-pass mix created enough of a threat to hold the linebackers and open up pass routes, and when the Lions dropped back to pass, BenJarvus Green-Ellis hammered them for important yards and scores.  He ended up with 12 carries for 59 yards and 2 touchdowns, and both scores were hard inside runs where he battered defenders and drove them into the end zone.  Danny Woodhead didn't have as good a running day as he did the past few weeks, but this was a day to pass anyway, so don't read too much into it.

And along the O-line it was a mixed bag.  The outside rush got to Brady too often in the first half, and the inside did the same until they started double-teaming the tackles.  The Pats couldn't handle the Lions inside size or outside quickness, and blitzes confused them more than they should at this point in the season.  But give them credit for adjusting to shorter passes and play-action to slow down the rush; it worked to perfection in the second half.

On special teams, they gave up way too many good kickoff returns and didn't get any of their own.  Brandon Tate needs to realize that when they kick him into a corner he should take it straight ahead and get what he can.  He tried to cross the field too often, wanting to make a big play, and was regularly tackled short of the 20 yard line.  And with Gostkowski gone, they are giving up longer returns -- might be time to do shorter kickoffs so the coverage can get to the ball carrier quicker.

So where does that leave us?  9-2 and tied with the Jets atop the AFC... seems like a good place to be.  And the Gillette Showdown is 10 days away, should be a real barn-burner.  Also, the extra days off couldn't have come at a better time, with Brady missing practice this week, he can use the additional time to rest his injured ankle.  He'll need maximum mobility against the blitz-happy Jets, that's for sure.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: A 9-2 record guarantees that the Patriots will go yet another season without ever dipping below .500.  The last time they were under .500 was when they lost the opener in 2003 (which put them at 0-1).  So by the end of this year, it'll be 127 straight games without a losing record, obliterating the old record of 96 (trivia question #2: name the team that held that record).  Enjoy the run while it lasts, folks... excellence like this does not come along more than once in a lifetime.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Sure Brady was amazing and all, but why do I think McCourty saved their bacon with his pick early in the second half?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  9-2!

PPS.  Trivia Answers:

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#1: The Patriots outscored the Dolphins 35-7 in the second half of their game in Miami.

#2: The Buffalo Bills were never below .500 from 1988 - 1994.

Patriots 31, Colts 28

Couldn't ask for much more folks; 31-28 was too close for comfort, but the Patriots survived a furious comeback to notch the win and keep pace in the AFC East.  At 8-2, the Pats are tied with the Jets for first place in the division and the conference, and both teams are in position for decent post-season seeding and could find themselves duking it out for a possible playoff bye.

It was another November to remember, the latest in a series of classic games between two of the best NFL franchises.  Since 2003 the Patriots and Colts have played seven regular season games in November, with an average score of Colts 28.86 Patriots 26.14.  That's less than a field goal difference per game, and there was only one blowout in the bunch, a 40-21 Colts victory.  Take that game out, and the two teams are absolutely dead even -- 27 points each per game in six contests.  No wonder the NFL always schedules Pats/Colts during sweeps, they are great theater.  (Trivia question: which year since 2003 did the Patriots *not* play their regular season Colts game in November?  Answer below.)

The Patriots actually won this game 3-0, which is the interception totals of the Colts and Patriots, respectively.  Peyton Manning looked positively human, overthrowing on his first one, miscommunicating with a receiver on the second, and underthrowing the third with the game on the line late in the fourth quarter.  He was under pressure all three times, and those turnovers were the difference in the game -- especially given that the Patriots had zero turnovers, only once even putting the ball in jeopardy (a late Tom Brady throw that went through the hands of a Colts defender).

The Patriots defense used a new strategy to slow down the Colts passing game.  After the game, media commentators thought the Pats played mostly zone coverage, but the defensive backs revealed that they played mostly man-to-man (about 70% of the time).  Turns out the Pats coaches thought it would be easier to use exotic coverage to confuse the Colts receivers than to confuse Manning, so they disguised their coverage specifically to confuse the Colts receivers.  And it worked brilliantly, causing at least one INT and several incompletions, and a lot of obvious frustration for Manning and the offense.  And of course, the disguise also confused the media; but what else is new :)

The Foxboro Weather god (my friend Al) hoped the Patriots would come out in a 1-6 defense, and he wasn't far off.  They started the game with 2 linemen, 4 linebackers, and 5 defensive backs.  Vince Wilfork did a fantastic job plugging up the inside and freeing linebackers to stop the run.  And they definitely took advantage; Jerod Mayo continuing his NFL ascent with 15 tackles (he leads the league with 120 tackles on the year) and Gary Guyton improving his play markedly.  The Colts finished the first half with 9 yards on 10 carries, so it went pretty well.  Ron Brace and Gerard Warren also pitched in to hold the line; though none of the three linemen did much to pressure Manning.

The pressure came from the outside; Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich got hits on the Colts QB a few times, but mostly the pressure made Manning move and throw, which usually isn't good enough to stop him.  But it was this week, with his receivers confused by coverage.  Guyton and Brandon Spikes seem to switch roles from week to week, one having a solid game and the other making guest appearances but playing well when on the field.  This week Spikes was the mystery guest -- making only two tackles, but guessing right and making them for little gain (zero yards and one yard).

The biggest problem with the linebackers was the medium-middle passing game.  They were repeatedly torched by Colts tight end Jacob Tamme for 7- to 10-yard passes right down the middle, in front of one or two linebackers seemingly happy to tackle Tamme after he got the first down.  That mid-range pass gives the 2010 Patriots more trouble than just about anything else, and that means they are vulnerable to teams with enough outside pass-receiving talent to stretch them thin in the middle (i.e. Indy, San Deigo, and the Jets).

The secondary played a primary role in the victory.  Three interceptions speak for themselves, and the fact that they confused the Colts receivers speaks volumes about how hard they worked on the game plan.  Devin McCourty's INT was a gift, a long Manning throw when the receiver cut the route short.  But McCourty made an athletic play to catch it in bounds, and it was a game-changer at the time.  James Sanders' INT was a short ball thrown under pressure, and it sealed the game -- not a bad follow up for last week's AFC Defensive Player of the Week.

The third INT was by Brandon Meriweather, who had a nifty return to set up the Patriots first touchdown.  But as always with him, he giveth and taketh away.  Late in the first half, he took a terrible angle on corner coverage and Reggie Wayne hauled in a touchdown to make it 21-14 at the half, even though the Patriots had pretty much dominated.  The best safety combo the Pats have right now is Pat Chung and James Sanders, and Meriweather should think about that long and hard before he rests on his "I was a Pro Bowler last year" laurels.  Oh, and if cornerback Kyle Arrington can't cover a receiver, he at least needs to make the tackle after the catch.  One or the other please, Mr. Arrington.

On offense, Tom Brady was flawless in the first half; with just two incompletions and a 145.2 rating after 30 minutes.  The Pats scored on all three possessions before the break, mixing the run and pass well and keeping the chains moving with yards-after-contact.  Must have said "yards after contact" 10 times yesterday, noting that Wes Welker (on his touchdown), Danny Woodhead (on two important first downs), and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (on a dozen or more runs) all made significant yards after the first hit.  Woodhead's 36-yard touchdown dash included two broken tackles and great downfield blocking by Deion Branch and Welker.  And Green-Ellis' touchdown was just tough inside running and a broken tackle at the goal line.

The Colts apparently didn't want to get beaten by the Pats tight ends, holding them to two catches.  But they forgot to stop the run (168 yards, 4.9 yards a carry) and cover the wide receivers.  Wes Welker and Deion Branch combined for 12 catches and 128 yards, including 8 for first downs, another first down on a pass-interference penalty, and two more second-and-1 setups.  If both continue to produce this well, the Patriots could go a long way this season, given the talent they now have at tight end.  Now if Julian Edelman would stop dropping the ball, that would be sort of cool.

Nothing to report on special teams, other than the Patriots not missing any extra points -- woo-hoo!

And as for the coaching; they did a great job confusing the Colts offense and that was enough for a 3-point victory.  They bunged up the play-calling a bit in the fourth quarter; but no arguing with the results.

So where does that leave us?  Pats will be back at it Thursday afternoon, on the road in Detroit for the early Thanksgiving Day game.  The Lions haven't done well this year (2-8) and are down to their third or fourth QB.  With the short week and a road game, this might normally be worrisome; but the Lions apparently don't know how to win on Thanksgiving.  Even though they play on that day every year, they haven't won since 2003.  So sit back and enjoy on Thursday; should be a pleasurable experience if you are a Patriots fan.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots lead the league in scoring, despite being outperformed by their opponents in the following areas: total first downs (235 to 207), third down conversion rate (50.7% to 44.8%), fourth-down conversion rate (77.8% to 62.5%), total yards (3984 to 3394), average yards per play (5.9 to 5.6), and time of possession (33:01 to 28.16).

ALMOST the Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots almost ended the game with no penalties; Tully Banta-Cain's foolish personal foul late in the game was the only blemish.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Colts can't run and can't stop the run... they are going nowhere this year."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  8-2!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:

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The defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots opened the 2004 season on Thursday night against the Colts (September 9).  Pats won the game 27-24 (thank you, Vander-shank!).

Patriots 39, Steelers 26

Pittsburgh fans must hate Tom Brady the way I hated John Elway -- no matter how things looked beforehand or where the game was played, they just can't beat the guy.  Same story yesterday; a 39-26 victory that wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated.  The victory helped the 7-2 Pats keep pace with the Jets, who won earlier in the day, as the teams remain tied for first place in the AFC East.  And the victory came not a moment too soon, with the Colts coming to town next week and a short turn-around for a Turkey Day contest in Detroit.

Last night's game was the one Rob Gronkowski was supposed to have against Cleveland.  The Patriots continue to target the rookie tight end, and he bounced back from his worst game to dominate this one -- three touchdowns on five catches and superb blocking in both the running and passing games.  The 6' 7" Gronk is a beast to cover, and his production, coupled with a great game by Wes Welker (8 catches for 89 yards) should open things up for other receivers.  And aside from a few dropped passes (Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Brandon Tate), it was a flawless offensive performance.

Of course, none of that firepower would have been possible without stellar play from the O-line.  With Stephen Neal injured and out of the game, and the vaunted Steelers defense ready to bully and blitz the Pats to death, it was surprising that the Pats outgained them on the ground (103 to 76) and gave up zero sacks and only three QB hits.  Give credit to, Mr. Versatile, Dan Connolly, who stepped in for the injured Neal and didn't miss a beat, much like when he replaced holdout Logan Mankins the first seven games.

And speaking of Mankins, he came back at just the right time, playing the entire game and doing a great job run blocking and following through play-action fakes with pulls around end where he still managed to get good blocks in pass protection.  That is no easy task, and he was more than up to it.  Even oft-maligned Matt Light had a very good game; and perhaps deserves more praise, especially given that he goes up against the best pass rusher every week.  Tell you what, if he plays well next week against Indy, he'll get his own paragraph.

And as you might have guessed, with a decent running game (thank you BenJarvus Green-Ellis -- 18 carries for 87 yards) and facing very little pressure, Dr. Tom Brady carved up the suspect Steelers defensive backfield.  The Steelers hadn't let up a first quarter touchdown all year, but Brady marched the team to an 8-play, 70 yard touchdown drive to open the game.  The drive included his best throw, a laser to Gronkowski through a ridiculously small opening.  Brady now holds the best current career passer rating against Pittsburgh, and is only the second quarterback in NFL history with three consecutive 300-yard passing days against them.  Must be something about those black-and-gold uniforms that brings out the best in #12.  Maybe the Patriots should see if they can play the Bruins in up-coming years.

The young defense performed admirably.  Edge rushing by Jermaine Cunningham and Tully Banta-Cain pushed Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger up in the pocket, and Mike Wright did an outstanding job at nose tackle, pushing the line back into Roethlisberger.  Banta-Cain and Wright notched 1.5 sacks each, and had the Pittsburgh QB under constant pressure.  And for the most the pass rush kept him in the -- though Rob Ninkovich has some 'splaining to do about his whiff in the first half.

Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, and Pat Chung handled the run a lot more easily than I thought they would.  The Patriots rarely stunt or twist along the defensive line, but they did a lot of that last night, and it seemed to catch the Steelers off-guard.  Pittsburgh had a decent run or two, but for the most part their ground game was out of sync, and the Patriots are the first team to control that running attack all year.

Pat Chung makes a significant difference on this defense, bringing a hard-hitting attitude and making big plays the way Brandon Meriweather is supposed to.  And rookie corner Devin McCourty continues to impress, both with improved pass coverage and exceptional support against the run.  He is a sure tackler on edge running plays, he doesn't get beaten deep when his safety blitzes, and he has long arms and great technique.  That wooshing sound you hear is all the post-draft McCourty doubters doing an abrupt about-face.

In all candor, the defensive performance was just a little bit smoke and mirrors.  Remember that Pittsburgh dropped three touchdown passes during the game and lost their best wideout early on.  They even threw in some ill-timed penalties on a few drives, and the Patriots soft zone in the fourth quarter didn't work very well; even though the offense (and at one point, the defense) continued to put up points to keep the Steelers at bay.  But give the Pats defense credit; they hit harder than the Steelers, and the scheme was well conceived and brilliantly executed.

And after a week of worrying that special teams would suffer without Stephen Gostkowski... well, there appears to be something to worry about.  Shane Graham missed an extra point, and his kickoffs will not be the same weapon that Gostkowski's were.  But new long snapper Matt Katula acquitted himself well, and if they can get that extra point thing straightened out it'll be all good.  Kudos to the special teams coaches and players for pulling it together with less than a week to prepare with two new guys in critical positions.

And more kudos to the Patriots coaching staff.  The offense was imaginative and the mix of run/pass was the best of the year.  They didn't play into the strengths of their opponent -- throwing 65% of the time rather than foolishly "establishing the run" against the best run defense in the NFL -- and they made very good offensive adjustments at the half, witness touchdown drives of 78 and 80 yards in the third quarter.  And on defense, the coaches had them in the right position often enough and the blitzing and stunting confused Pittsburgh enough to slow them down.  Three points allowed in the first half are all you need to know about the defensive game-plan... but my advice is to rework that soft zone -- it looked really bad and didn't really take enough time off the clock.

So where does that leave us?  7-2 isn't a bad record at all, and the game next Sunday against the Colts is their next big test.  Indy leads the AFC South division, but that won't make them any less hungry to beat the Patriots.  They *always* play the Pats tough, so expect a dog fight.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots and Steelers each had exactly 15:00 of possession time in the first half.  And trust me, I've looked at enough box scores to know it's been a long time since that happened.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Gronkowski and McCourty have to be the Patriots offensive and defensive rookies of the year.  They are playing like five-year veterans."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  7-2!

Patriots 14, Browns 34

Last week at YourPatriots.blogspot.com:

[The Patriots] have a game against the 2-5 Browns next week.  But don't take that game too lightly -- the Browns beat the Saints the last time they played, and the last time [head coach Eric Mangini] had a bye week to prepare for the Patriots he unexpectedly beat them.

This week at YourPatriots.blogspot.com:

I warned you!

NFL teams are just too closely matched to have an off week like the Patriots did yesterday, and with two critical fumbles and multiple dropped passes (and off-target passes), the Pats lost to the Browns 34-14 in Cleveland.  The game leaves them at 6-2 and in a first place tie with the Jets, who pulled out an overtime win against the Lions, and leaves them scratching their heads over a game that some had labeled "a second bye week" for the local 11.

There were too many bad plays and players to single them all out, but here were some critical plays that went badly awry and players who underperformed.

The Browns first kickoff was purposefully left short to avoid Brandon Tate's explosive return abilities.  Rob Gronkowski signaled a fair catch at the 20, and should have caught it.  But inexplicably, he let it go and a shocked Sammie Morris tried to dive on it, but it squirted free and the Browns recovered.  Two plays later, the Browns punched it in for a 10-0 lead less than 4:00 into the game.

It was a terrible play on a lot of fronts.  Gronkowski appeared ready to block for Morris; but once he signaled fair catch he can't do that anymore.  So once he'd signaled for the fair catch, there was really no other option.  It was a very bad rookie mistake, and one that should earn him a few extra laps at practice this week.

However, it wasn't his only bad play.  On the Patriots opening drive, he dropped a short swing pass that would have left them with third-and-short, but instead it was third-and-seven.  The next drop wasn't his fault; but he had several others during the game.  He also fumbled at the Browns' 2 yard line just before the half, on a drive that appeared destined to leave the dominated Patriots just 3 points behind at the break.

Gronk wasn't the only one with dropped passes: Aaron Hernandez had two, Deion Branch had one, Wes Welker had an uncharacteristic drop, and Danny Woodhead "contributed" one of his own.  And in another terrible play, Brandon Tate dropped an easy one across the middle that would have made it first down in Browns territory with the game still in doubt in the third quarter.  No excuse; he just flat out dropped it -- and the Patriots had to punt again.

Tom Brady was clearly frustrated with the drops and with what he thought were bad patterns.  But he didn't help the cause, his throws were all over the place -- some too high, some too low, and some to the wrong spot.  For the most part the protection was mediocre; though the Browns only got one sack, they often made Brady throw off his back foot or only after sliding in the pocket.

And speaking of the offensive line; maybe they need to start Dan Connolly instead of Logan Mankins.  Because they were pathetic yesterday.  No push in the running game, three-man rushes that forced Brady out of the pocket, bad blocking on unsuccessful screens, and some free rushers coming at Brady.  Mankins didn't do much for his erstwhile free agency campaign in 2011; though it doesn't all fall to him.  Sebastian Vollmer got knocked on his ass a few times, and Stephen Neal whiffed on at least two one-on-one assignments.

Browns running back Peyton Hillis ran right through the defense; much more so than Ray Rice in the playoffs last year.  The Patriots tackling was terrible -- Hillis bounced off a three-man group at the goal-line then swung around them an early touchdown.  And every time the defense needed to make a sure tackle to stop a drive, the Browns players outran them to the corner (Jerod Mayo, Jermaine Cunningham, and Kyle Arrington), shook off arm tackles (Brandon Spikes and Tully Banta-Cain), or plowed over them (Brandon Deadrick, Vince Wilfork, and Gary Guyton).

When Jonathan Wilihite was your surest tackler, you *know* it was a bad day.  But don't think he had a great game, either.  In the first half, the Pats desperately needed to hold the Browns to a field goal to keep the game close.  They had them in third-and-four, and called the perfect defense -- an overload blitz.  Wilhite came in unblocked with a free shot at Browns QB Colt McCoy.  But Wilhite did the one thing he should never have done -- missed McCoy and let him break contain to the outside, where he threw a six-yard completion.  The next play was a Cleveland touchdown, rather than a field goal attempt.

On "special" teams, the entire kickoff return team was pathetic.  It was as if they'd never seen a a short kickoff -- no one knew what to do with the ball.  Aside from Gronkowski's screw up, Alge Crumpler did a fair catch with no one around him.  The Patriots best returner of the day was offensive lineman Dan Connolly -- who took the short kickoffs and ran them straight ahead for positive yardage.  And at the end of the game, Stephen Gostkowski was injured enough that Wes Welker kicked an extra point and the ensuing kickoff.

Add to that another bad snap by Jake Ingram (on a punt), and the fact that they controlled dangerous return man Joshua Cribbs by kicking it short and giving the Browns a short field -- and it was a very bad day on special teams.

I won't mention coaching, other than to say it's obvious which team was better prepared for the game.

So where does that leave us?  Well... 6-2 projects to 12-4 over an entire season, and that would surely get the Patriots in the playoffs.  No telling how the second half will go; but with a young defense and some young skill position players, there are bound to be down weeks like this.  In fact, there might be more of them a the season goes on, because the college football season is about 10 or 11 games long -- so some of those players will hit the rookie wall soon.  Steelers in Pittsburgh up next; hold onto your hat if they play poorly again.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The oddity is that for the first time in 200+ updates I don't have time to research a decent oddity.  Maybe I'll do two next week instead -- sorry :(

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If the Randy Moss trade was addition by subtraction, was Logan Mankins' return subtraction by addition?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  6-2!

Patriots 28, Vikings 18

It's weeks like this when you should cherish being a Patriots fan.  In most NFL cities, you get one good year out of three, owing to the unbalanced schedule and the fact that most teams don't draft well beyond the first 20 picks.  That's how it is in Minnesota -- and as if to prove it, the Vikings (who were in the NFC Championship Game last year) brought their can't-do attitude to Foxboro on Sunday and left with a 28-18 loss amid a lot of head scratching.  Meanwhile the Patriots continued their winning ways, sporting a 6-1 record that tops the entire NFL and puts them a game ahead in the division race.

At first, it looked like all-world running back Adrian Peterson would shred the Pats on the ground all day long, ripping off runs of 8, 7, 8, 9, 7, and 8 yards in the first half.  But it wasn't all bad; he was also stopped for no gain or a loss four times, including on a third-and-one to stop a drive and fourth-and-goal at the 1 yard line.  That last stop kept the game tied 7-7 at the half, and the tackle was made by rookies Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes.

The Patriots defense continues on the road to improvement.  After being completely unable to stop anyone on third down, they held the Vikings to 36% in that key stat (after holding the Ravens to 31% two weeks ago).  Moving Vince Wilfork to an outside line position seems to confound opposing offenses, creating mismatches for Wilfork and allowing Mike Wright to attack with speed against schemes designed to stop beef.  The young linemen also improve every week; with Brandon Deaderick earning another start and Myron Pryor and Ron Brace looking a *lot* better than they did last year.

And all that up-front scheming leaves the linebackers to run to the ball, and Jerod Mayo is close to returning to his 2008 form (you remember; when he won Defensive Rookie of the Year).  Mayo's inside running mate Brandon Spikes shows good instincts and now rarely runs himself out of a play.  And for regular readers of this blog, you know that is progress -- since he did that a *lot* at the beginning of the year.  Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich still aren't where the defense needs them to be in holding up against the run and pressuring the quarterback.  And there were holes yesterday in the intermediate passing game over the middle.  But at this point, much improved from the start of the season.

The secondary did a terrific job yesterday in man-coverage.  Not so much in the soft zone; but when corners Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty jam receivers at the line they can run with just about anyone and showed good tackling ability (save for one catch-and-run by Percy Harvin against Arrington).  And McCourty plays the ball a lot better now, getting turned to the ball to knock it down and avoid penalties.  He cut inside a route by Harvin to break up a long pass, and ripped the ball away from Harvin later in the quarter for the only INT of the game.  The safeties played very deep against Minnesota, taking them out of the intermediate passing zones, but they never got beaten deep... until Brandon Merriweather found himself singled up on Randy Moss and had to commit a penalty to save a touchdown.

The Patriots running game was the opposite of the Vikings'.  The Pats totaled only 9 yards in the first half, but changed the blocking schemes to break out with 113 yards in the last 30 minutes.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis broke 100 yards for the first time in his career (17 carries for 112 yards), and scored two touchdowns for the first time, too.  He showed good quickness, hitting the hole and then making decisive cuts to get enough extra real estate against the secondary, and he averaged an impressive 6.6 yards a carry.  And you can't say enough about Danny Woodhead, who has now fully stepped into the role Kevin Faulk occupied for so long.  Now that they do direct-snaps to Woodhead (probably the closest you'll ever get to the Wildcat from the Patriots), he's doing everything Faulk did -- including breaking tackles to get important first downs late in the game.

Tom Brady's day seemed pretty pedestrian; but he had a 65-yard touchdown that was one of his best plays with the Patriots -- period.  He slid away from the pass rush, broke contain and spun away from more pressure before finding Brandon Tate breaking free down the sideline.  Oh, and Brady stood his ground to make that throw in the face of a big hit coming his way.  Just a great overall play.  Other than that, hewas cool and efficient, a few throw-aways to avoid sacks or INTs, and very good on third down.

The O-line was like the running game; not much in the first half but more push and better protection in the second.  Given how they man-handled a very good Vikings defensive line in the second half, it makes me wonder how good they will be if Logan Mankins, one of the best guards in the league, returns to play the last six games of the season, as he will reportedly do today.

On special teams, there were zero mistakes on long snaps; so it appears that Jake Ingram got all those problems out of the way against the Chargers.  It was another good day for both Zoltan Mesko and Stephen Gostkowski; with Mesko getting the Patriots out of a hole with a 55-yard punt.

And it bears special mention that the Patriots coaches have out-adjusted their last four opponents at the half.  The reason it bears mentioning is that it hasn't been consistently true for 2+ years.  But the Dolphins, Ravens, Chargers, and now Vikings were outscored in the second half, and the Patriots offense in particular has performed a lot better after the break.

So where does that leave us?  Well, 6-1 isn't bad at all, putting the Patriots on pace for 13 or 14 wins for the year.  As mentioned, they lead the NFL at the moment, and they have a game against the 2-5 Browns next week.  But don't take that game too lightly -- the Browns beat the Saints the last time they played, and the last time Mangini had a bye week to prepare for the Patriots he unexpectedly beat them.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Patriots inside linebacker Jerod Mayo leads the entire NFL in tackles with 86, even though he has played fewer games than the second and third place players.  Trivia question: when was the last time the league leader in tackles was from the Patriots (answer below)?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe Logan Mankins should talk to Randy Moss before he fully commits to leaving the Patriots.  The grass ain't always greener."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  6-1!

PPS.  Trivia answer:
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Okay... trick question -- the NFL has only kept official tackling stats for a few years, and the Patriots never had anyone lead the league.