Patriots 31, Packers 27

If you listened to the talking heads all week it wasn't supposed to be like this.  The Patriots held on for a 31-27 win over the Packers, a team most pundits predicted the Pats would destroy, especially with a backup quarterback under center for Green Bay.  But the Patriots did hold on for the win, giving them a 12-2 record, two games ahead of their nearest AFC challenger.  They head to Buffalo next week for a game against the Bills, and if the Patriots win they will be the #1 playoff seed in the AFC.  It doesn't get much simpler than that.

As for the Packers game, New England faced a trio of factors that made it much tougher than most people thought it would be.  First, the Packers have a balanced offense and an attacking defense, both of which give the Patriots trouble.  Consider how the Saints beat them handily last year, or how the Chargers and Colts have been giving them trouble for a while now.  Second, the Pats defense often underperforms against young quarterbacks who have no track record to study/attack (see: "Roethlisberger, Ben" from 2004, "Henne, Chad" in 2009, or even "Bradford, Sam" from this pre-season).  And third, the Packers' playoff hopes hung in the balance, and they needed a win desperately.

The Pats got contributions in all three phases, and the defense shut down the Packers at the end when it counted.  The defensive line was very tick-or-treat, sometimes stuffing the run and sometimes getting gashed by it.  Vince Wilfork was their best defensive player, but he couldn't do it alone, and the Patriots had loads of injuries on the defensive line (Mike Wright, Myron Pryor, and Ron Brace were all inactive) and a crucial player suspension (Brandon Spikes).  Against that depleted line the Packers got a big push up front and gained 143 yards on the ground.  But even with all the missing players, the Pats somehow generated a very good pass rush, blitzing some but mostly just bull-rushing -- and all told getting 5 sacks for 25 yards.

When the Green Bay running backs escaped the D-line and hit the second level they ran around and over the linebackers.  Jerod Mayo (16 tackles) and Gary Guyton (8) mostly seemed to stop guys after decent gains, but when they missed it seemed like the running back could go forever.  Rob Ninkovich did a decent job holding the edge, but Tully Banta-Cain got bounced around like a rag doll, and Jermaine Cunningham didn't fare much better on the opposite side.  Both were better pressuring the passer; and of course Banta-Cain's late penalty negated an interception and almost cost the Patriots the game.

In the secondary, Devin McCourty would be your defensive co-MVP.  His stats on the evening: 10 tackles, 1 sack, 2 tackles for a loss, and 1 pass knocked away.  Maybe he should injure his rib *every* week (just joking y'all!).  He continues to make a strong push for NFL defensive rookie of the year; he's started every game and other than the Bears game he's played just about every snap this season.  And with McCourty shutting down one side, they can roll a safety to help Kyle Arrington, who you have to admire for guts and determination, if not talent -- even though he did have an interception, with a very nice return for a touchdown.

(Note: As McCourty makes a push for NFL defensive rookie of the year, his main competition, Ndamukong Suh of the Lions, is tapering off.  In his last 7 games, Suh has just 28 tackles and 1.5 sacks.)

The biggest question in the defensive backfield is why Brandon Meriweather gets any playing time at all.  He took a bad angle on a play that gave the Packers a 66 yard touchdown.  And he looked absolutely lost on two other plays, hesitating as if he wasn't sure what to do, which is a big, huge no-no for a safety.  If he doesn't trust his own instincts (and there isn't much evidence he should), then Pat Chung and James Sanders should be the starting safeties, with Jarrad Page as the third option.  Chung is great, and Sanders at least knows the defense and doesn't get caught out of position.

The offense struggled all night, and it didn't help that they only had 9 possessions to Green Bay's 12.  What did help was the short field after Dan Connolly's 71-yard kickoff return (an NFL record for an offensive lineman), and getting a quick seven on Arrington's interception.  Connolly's play was wonderful to watch -- just ask the Packers' special teams, they mostly watched while he rumbled down the field.  The video is here; it's worth the time to check it out if you missed it.

Connolly's heroics notwithstanding, the offensive line had a pretty bad day.  They didn't handle the blitz well, allowing too many free hits on the quarterback and too many tackles for a loss or no gain in the running game.  The Patriots rushing average was very good, 7.1 yards a carry and several long runs off-tackle.  (Trivia question: The Patriots last ran for 7.1 yards a carry in 2008 against the Raiders... can you name either of the two leading rushers in that game?  Answer below.)  But everyone on the O-line, except for Matt Light, had at least one brain-cramp, and the Packers continued to blitz because it worked.  Not a good day when you give up 3 sacks (27 yards), 3 quarterback hits, and 4 tackles behind the line of scrimmage.

The stat sheet indicated a decent running game: 113 yards on 16 carries, a 33 yard touchdown, and some effective misdirection plays.  But it sure didn't feel that way during the game.  Of those 16 rushes, 6 were for 2 yards or less, not a good thing when you're trying to establish a consistent running attack.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis made a nifty move on his 33 yard touchdown, and in the fourth quarter they finally settled on Danny Woodhead around end -- and made decent yardage with it.  But they need to work on their pass protection schemes because you know other teams will try the same thing since it worked so well for the Packers.

The passing game looked alternately overmatched and unstoppable.  Overmatched when the Packers got pressure, and unstoppable when Tom Brady had time.  Brady finished the day with only 163 yards passing, but most importantly had no turnovers, and he and his receivers made some great plays against pressure (Deion Branch's 17-yard catch on 3rd-and-17, his scoop of a wobbler in the fourth quarter).  However, Green Bay almost picked off two passes that Brady shouldn't have thrown... and those throws were against the blitz.  But when he had time, Brady was very good.  His audible on Aaron Hernandez' second touchdown was brilliant, and some of the tight windows he used were jaw-dropping.

The receivers did not turn in big numbers; but Aaron Hernandez had 4 catches and 2 touchdowns, and with Wes Welker catching only half the balls thrown his way (3 of 6), the running backs and other tight ends pitched in to make up the slack.  Hernandez' fellow rookie Rob Gronkowski caught a crucial pass to move the Pats into scoring range in the first quarter, and all three catches that Green-Ellis and Woodhead had between them helped keep scoring drives alive.

The Patriots still need some special teams work.  For the most part the kickoffs were better; shorter than Gostkowski boots but the coverage team did a nice job shutting down the return (in all but one case).  But the Packers opened the game with an onside kick, and the replay showed James Sanders vacating his designated area, and the Packers ended up recovering the kick.  With the Patriots offense doing so well, the team should expect opponents to pull trick plays like this... so James Sanders, you are the winner of the "extra laps" award for the week.

Not a lot to say about the coaching, except that they put their defensive players in good position to make plays against the pass but sort of ran out of bodies against the run.  Bill Belichick probably said he was glad to have the win at this point in the season -- that sounds about right.

So where does that leave us?  No rest for that defense; Buffalo put up 30 points against them earlier in the year, and this game will be in Buffalo.  Expect the Patriots to win, though -- they've beaten the Bills 14 straight times, and it appears that the Bills' offense is running out of gas (fewer than 20 points in each of the last 3 games).  One more win gives the Pats the AFC East title and the #1 playoff seed in the conference.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: All props to Dan Connolly on his 71 yard kickoff return... anything that had never happened in NFL history must qualify as an oddity.

Bonus Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots completed their sixth consecutive game without a turnover.  The previous NFL record was four consecutive games -- no small feat to better a long-standing record by 50%.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It's probably just as well if the Packers keep losing and don't make the playoffs; that way there's no chance we could see them in the Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers at QB."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  12-2!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:

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Sammie Morris led the Patriots with 117 yards, and one-time Raider LaMont Jordan was close behind with 97.