Patriots 45, Jets 3

It's official folks, the Patriots are better than even *I* predicted.  I had them at 9-3 to this point, and they outstripped even that optimism by thrashing the Jets 45-3 on Monday night, giving them a 10-2 record.  That is the best record in the AFC, putting them in great position to win the division and perhaps get a coveted playoff bye; but beware of the road game in Chicago on a short week against the resurgent Bears.  Alright, don't beware of it -- just enjoy the win for a day and worry about the Bears later.

Rex Ryan isn't talking much, not with a mouth full of the crow after the 45-3 humiliation.  As he said after the game, "I came to kick [Belichick's] butt, and he kicked mine."  That's why you do your talking on the field, not at the podium.  Ryan seems smart enough to understand that provoking the enemy doesn't work to your advantage over the long haul.  The question is, can he reign in that mouth before it gets him in trouble or his players start tuning him out.

To say the Patriots had this one all the way is an understatement.  The offense drove relentlessly, notching scores on four straight drives to start the game and three straight to start the second half.  Other than that, they didn't look very good.  They got out in front early and save two hiccups in the second quarter they kept the accelerator to the floor against a Jets team not designed to come back from big deficits.

The Patriots use of short passes and misdirection runs make them a much more difficult matchup for the Jets than they were with the vertical passing game of Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth.  The New York defense has playmakers all over the field, and they like to blitz and play man-coverage.  But man-to-man is largely negated against a team with talented quick-cutting receivers who flood the middle of the field -- zone coverage is much more effective against that type of offense.

The result on Monday: Danny Woodhead (4 catches for 104 yards) and Wes Welker (7 for 80) destroyed the Jets in the intermediate zone, catching every pass thrown their way and scampering for yards after the catch.  They kept drives alive, along with Deion Branch, who caught two straight passes to turn third-and-22 into 7 points with a nifty catch-and-run on fourth down.  And in the second half the Jets keyed on Branch and Welker, so Woodhead did his damage and Tom Brady threw to Aaron Hernandez for all 51 of the tight end's yards and a 1-yard touchdown to ice the game in the fourth quarter.

Speaking of that Brady guy, this was his best performance of the year.  The Jets defense is very good, last night notwithstanding, and Brady posted a 148.9 passer rating.  It marked the eighth time he threw touchdown passes to four different players in one game.  (Trivia question: can you name the year and opponent of his first such game.  Bonus points if you can name two of the four men who caught touchdowns in that game... answer below).  His surgical dissection of a top notch NFL defense was the latest in what might be the best four-game stint of his career.  Some numbers from those games: 91 of 124 (73.4%), 1,203 yards (300+ per game), 13 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and an absolutely sick 138.6 passer rating.  And those games include victories over the Jets and Steelers, teams that sported top 10 passing defenses before they played the Patriots.

Overall the offensive line gets a B on the day, and the blocking performance of the tight ends is included in that grade.  No one expected they'd come close to 100 yards rushing on the day, but they went for 101.  Logan Mankins was a beast pulling around end, and with the middle clogged up they had some nice misdirection runs in the second half.  But in the passing game the O-line and tight ends suffered from some miscommunication, with blitzers coming free too often and Brady getting sacked 4 times for 56 yards.  Brady did a good job sliding around in the pocket to stay upright; or it could have been a lot more sacks for a lot more yards.

The defense helped build the large lead with stops on four of six first half drives.  And it did what it should have done with a large lead; let the Jets run and make the sure tackle to keep the clock moving.  It never looks good to give up 156 yards on the ground; but once the Patriots had the lead it was more important to take away the big passing play.  And the Jets averaged a pathetic 4.4 yards per pass attempt; so mission accomplished.

Once again, the defense created timely turnovers.  With the Jets driving for a touchdown that would have closed it to 24-10 early in the third quarter, Brandon Spikes intercepted a ball over the middle to shut down the drive.  The throw was a little low, and Spikes snagged it Bruschi-style, halfway to the receiver (who was triple covered in the end zone, by the way).

After a good kickoff return, the Jets were set up at the Patriots 45 yard line, when Devin McCourty undercut Braylon Edwards on the sideline for the interception.  It was the same type of play that got him an INT against the Lions, and an ill-advised play call -- a long pass into the wind when you needed a touchdown to make it a game.  And just for good measure James Sanders got the easiest pick of his career on a throw Sanchez never should have made.

Sanchez' passing line during this span: 2 of 6 for 12 yards, 3 interceptions and zero touchdowns.  Patriots points off those turnovers: 21.  Ballgame.

The Patriots got consistent pressure on Jets QB Sanchez; but once they got there they couldn't close the deal, only sacking him once.  Tully Banta-Cain and Jermaine Cunningham got some stuff off the edge, and overall the line kept him in the pocket so he couldn't make plays on the run.  But the Jets biggest problems were self-inflicted: Sanchez misreads of the defense, some inaccurate passes, not looking off the safeties, and some drops by his receivers.  The Pats secondary and linebackers confused both the quarterback and receivers of the Jets, and that led to one stalled drive after another.  And once the lead got too large, it was all over.

James Sanders and Pat Chung continue to impress as a safety combo in the secondary, and as stated last week, Devin McCourty is making a run at NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.  Mayo remains in the driver's seat for most tackles in the league this year, and the unsung rotation up front stuffs inside runs very well, and the linebacker rotation is getting better, with Rob Ninkovich and Gary Guyton contributing last night.  The only question that remains about this defense is whether or not they can stop a balanced attack -- i.e. an offense that can run the ball and pass the ball well.  Chicago runs the ball well, but I'm not sold on Jay Cutler, so this weekend's game in the windy city might not tell us much.  But the answer should come when the Green Bay Packers ride into town; they can run and pass as well as any team in the league, so stay tuned.

The special teams clearly miss Stephen Gostkowski's deep kickoffs.  Gostkowski ranked 4th in kickoff average, while his replacement is 27th, and when they try to kick away from good returners the other team is getting great field position.  If Graham can't kick the ball deeper, they need to work on his short game, directional kicks, and squibs to make sure he doesn't give up big returns.  But on the plus side, long snapper Matt Katula outperformed even what Jake Ingram did last year, so that position look solid.

And honestly you can't say enough about the coaching job this week.  Belichick gave his players 5 days off after the Thanksgiving day victory, and they responded with spirited play and flawless execution.  The Patriots staff totally outclassed the Jets group this week, in everything from game preparation to halftime adjustments.

So where does that leave us?  10-2 atop the AFC is a good place to be, and the real tale of their season will be told in the next two weeks: with a road tilt against the resurgent Bears and a Sunday night game against the Packers in Foxboro.  The Bears really don't worry me; it seems that Belichick has been waiting for a chance to confuse Jay Cutler into some turnovers.  The Packers are a much bigger threat, even though that game is at home, because of their balance on offense.

Oh and by the way, if the Patriots win one more game, they are officially in the playoffs, so they've got that going for them.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: At 7-5, the Jacksonville Jaguars are 2 games above .500 and leading their division; and yet they've been outscored by their opponents by 43 points, worst in their division and worse than *any* team in the NFC North division (including the 2-10 Detroit Lions).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Jets philosophy of running the ball and playing solid defense is so outdated they should call their head coach T-Rex Ryan."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  10-2!

PPS.  Trivia answer:
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Brady threw touchdown passes to Antowain Smith, Troy Brown, Charles Johnson, and Mark Edwards against the Saints on November 25, 2001 -- his first season as a starter.