Steelers Decipher (and Defeat) Patriots, 25-17

It was bound to happen eventually, and yesterday it did -- he Pittsburgh Steelers found a way to beat Tom Brady.  The Steelers notched a convincing 25-17 win and in the process vaulted to the head of the AFC pack with six wins.  The loss set the Patriots back to 5-2 and into a tie with the victorious Buffalo Bills atop the AFC East.  The 5-2 New York Giants come to town next week, so things don't look like they are getting much easier.

There is a lot to tell about this game; but frankly not much about the Patriots, who had too many defensive breakdowns to mention and did virtually nothing on offense except for one long drive.  So not as much detail on specific players this week, but more about how the Steelers changed their stripes to deliver a decisive win.

The Pittsburgh Offense had been inflexible over the years.  They would often try to establish physical dominance rather than adjust schemes that weren't working.  But not yesterday.  With improved deep threats at wide receiver, they spread out the Patriots defense to force match- ups and they took what the defense gave them.

Ask tight end Heath Miller about the results, if he ever comes back down from cloud nine.  Miller caught 7 passes for 85 yards, both career highs against the Patriots.  He repeatedly gashed them right down the middle, and he totaled five first downs (four on the first drive) and forced defensive adjustments that allowed his team to complete long throws to wide open receivers.

Give the Steelers offensive coaching staff credit for changing an old system that did not work.  They had five drives of 10+ plays each and held the ball for 39:22 (almost two-thirds of the game).  And they caused almost as much confusion and as many mental mistakes as the Saints did in their 2009 embarrassment of the Patriots, and that game had an epic series of breakdowns.

The Steelers defense used to play almost exclusively zone against the Patriots, and they would hold off blitzing until they had the Pats in stressful down-and-distance situations.  And predictably, Tom Brady would shred them with short gains that kept the chains moving and sustained drives.

But in yesterday's game, the Steelers unveiled something that appeared to take a page from Buddy Ryan's old "46" defense.  It's been years since I saw 10 men across the line of scrimmage that often; and though the Steelers didn't blitz as much as Ryan did from the formation, they slowed down and redirected receivers at the line to disrupt pass patterns.

The plan worked beautifully.  Even though Brady completed 68.5% of his passes, he was sacked three times and threw for just 198 yards.  And perhaps most important, the Patriots couldn't sustain drives.  Their only first-half touchdown was 2 play, 8 yard "drive."  They somehow had a drive with 9 plays and only 11 yards gained.  And their only sustained drive in the first half ended with a field goal.  And when they came out in the second half, with a chance to tie the game, they went three-and-out.

And in a stunning development, the Steelers special teams actually outplayed the Patriots.  They had better kickoff returns (averaging 27 yards to 18.5) and hit 75% of their field goals to the Patriots 50%.

As for the Patriots, there is mostly blame everywhere, but there were a few bright spots.  Kevin Faulk returned from a devastating 2010 knee injury, and he started and played well (though I suspect he missed a blitzer late in the game -- Brady stopped over for a chat with Faulk after the play).  Rob Gronkowski continues to impress, and safety Sergio Brown made one or two nice plays.

Jerod Mayo got back on the field, and looked a little rusty, even though he's a marked improvement over Gary Guyton (interception notwithstanding).  Andre Carter is becoming their one pass rushing threat -- he had two sacks and a QB hit on Sunday.  And even though their names are rarely on people's lips, both Kyle Love and Vince Wilfork do great work inside.  Still little pressure on the QB (though each got a sack yesterday), but it is tough to run through that middle.

One other encouraging note is how many times Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had to hold the ball beyond his initial reads.  Three of the sacks were caused by great coverage, and Roethlisberger often had to pull the ball back down and look for a different receiver.  So maybe the secondary can make a play or two -- though this in no way absolves them from their  multiple breakdowns.  But if there's hope for the season, it lies in the current players improving.  And some of them are showing that improvement -- now they need consistency.

Also note that with all that went wrong, this was still a winnable game.  Pittsburgh got a late first down by half-a-football, and the Patriots could have saved another minute on the clock if they'd challenged an incorrect call on a Rob Gronkowski touchdown.  So all is not lost; at least not yet.  But the NFL is a copy-cat league, and the Giants are sure to try the same plan when they come to town next week.  Time to start working on some answers.

So where does that leave us?  5-2 isn't bad, but with the Jets and Bills playing well, it is getting crowded in the AFC East.  The Giants have the defensive front to give the Patriots trouble; but bear in mind that New York barely (and I mean barely) beat the awful Miami Dolphins yesterday.  So even at 5-2, the Giants might not pose the threat one would expect.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Buffalo Bills have only four shutouts against NFC opponents in franchise history.  The "oddity" part is that all the shutouts have come when the date has doubles at the end of the year.  They shut out an NFC team in 1977, 1988, 1999, and 2011.  (Big... BIG props to anyone who can name the teams without looking -- answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Looks like the Steelers are finally sick of Tom Brady kicking sand in their face."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  5-2!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:
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Atlanta Falcons in 1977 (3-0), Green Bay Packers in 1988 (28-0), Philadelphia Eagles in 1999 (26-0), and Washington in 2011 (23-0).

New Look Steelers Could Finally Give Patriots Trouble

At first glance, Patriots versus Steelers looks like an exercise in frustration for Pittsburgh.  The games are often close, but since Pittsburgh beat the Patriots on Halloween 2004, they are 1-4 versus New England, the only win coming over the Matt Cassel-led team in 2008.

However, the Steelers are writing a new script this year, and the Patriots defense is in transition at just the wrong time.  So past patterns might not have as much play this Sunday.  Here are three reasons the match-up is intriguing.

1.  Mismatch for Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace versus the Patriots secondary.

The Steelers haven’t really been a run-first team since 2005, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s second season.  But their passing game has mostly been short to mid-range throws, with occassional long bombs on plays extended by Roethlisberger.  Without a significant deep threat, the Patriots regularly put extra men near the line of scrimmage, making it tougher for the Steelers to run or pass.

However, this year Pittsburgh sports a real deep threat in wide receiver Mike Wallace.  His yards per game are up about 33%, from 78.6 last year to 104.3 this season, and he scored the two longest touchdowns of his career (81 and 95 yards) in the first seven games.  Wallace always averaged about 20 yards a catch, but his increased yardage and quick-strike touchdowns -- coupled with Roethlisberger’s ability to extend plays -- have opposing teams defending the entire field for a change.

Additionally, the Patriots secondary remains a real problem.  Inexperience at safety has caused communication breakdowns and easy completions and touchdowns.  The team waived cornerback Leigh Bodden during the bye week, leaving scrappy Kyle Arrington and slumping Devin McCourty to cover against outside receivers.  All of which means the Patriots will either double-team Wallace (and leave other receivers open) or take their chances with single coverage (and risk big plays).

2.  Mismatch for New England: Tom Brady versus the Steelers defense.

This mismatch isn’t theoretical (like the first one); Patriots quarterback Tom Brady feasts on the Steelers defense.  For years Pittsburgh has played sound fundamentals and didn’t change the defense much from week to week.  They just played their system extremely well, and the results have been excellent.

Unfortunately for them, Brady exploits holes in their zone coverage, and he is outstanding at reading the blitz and completing passes before it gets to him.  So playing the same defense against Brady doesn’t work.  Need statistical proof... Brady’s QB rating the last four games against the Steelers are as follows: 130.5, 92.7, 125.2, and 117.4 -- gaudy numbers against a one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.

The other trend working against Pittsburgh is that Brady threw three interceptions in one of those games, and zero in the other three games combined.  The Steelers will need to win the turnover battle on Sunday, and that means confusing and hitting Tom Brady -- which they haven’t done lately.

3.  Something has to give: Patriots post-bye offense versus Pittsburgh’s first quarter defense.

After a bye week, the Patriots offense used to be awful to begin the next game.  In the first six years under Bill Belichick, they averaged less than a field goal (2.72 points) in the first quarter of games after a bye.  Something needed to change, and it did; in the last five years they are much improved, averaging 9.13 points in the first quarter of post-bye games.

Then there are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who give up an average of just 3.42 points in the first quarter this year -- and a microscopic average of 1.67 points in the first quarter over the last six weeks.  Clearly one of these trends has to give, and the team that continues its trend will have a leg up in going for the win.

Also note that the Patriots are very likely to be kicking off to start the game.  They always defer if they win the toss, and if Pittsburgh wins, they are likely to want the ball first to keep the Patriots offense off the field.  This factor plays in the Steelers’ favor as far as the first-quarter scoring trend goes. 

Ochocinco Just Doesn't Matter

Last week was the bye in New England, and that gave Patriots fans and media a chance to digest the season so far, spotting trends and areas of both encouragement and concern.  One name that came up repeatedly in articles and over the airwaves was Chad Ochocinco.  Some people advised more patience with the wide receiver and others called for him to be benched or cut outright.

What all the talk missed is that there simply isn’t any reason to bother talking about Ochocinco.  For all of the buzz surrounding his arrival this summer, not only has he not panned out, there is little reason to think he will.  And in retrospect there is almost no reason to think he could have made much of a difference in the first place.

Here are five reasons Ochocinco isn’t worth your time and energy.

Reason #1:  He averages a pathetic 1.5 catches for 15 yards a game.  In other words, he represents less than five per cent of the passing offense on a team that averages 26.7 completions for 350.5 yards a game.

Three points that put Ochocinco’s 2011 totals -- 9 catches for 136 yards -- in perspective:  First, Ochocinco himself topped those numbers 11 times in single games prior to joining the Patriots.  Second, Wes Welker had more yards in three games already this season.  And on the 2011 Patriots, Ochocinco joins three running backs and two part-time receivers as the only players on the entire team with fewer than ten catches for the year.

Reason #2:  Even with a non-functional/dysfunctional Ochocinco, New England is among the league leaders in every passing category. Tom Brady and company lead the league with 350.5 passing yards a game, and are second in yards per pass (9.1) and passer rating (104.8).  And overall the offense leads the NFL with 27 first downs a game, has three 90+ yard touchdown drives, and is fourth in points per game with 30.8.

Contributions from Ochocinco might help, but the team is thriving without him.

Reason #3:  Under the best of possible circumstances, Ochocinco would only have been only a modest improvement over Deion Branch.  The local media and many fans went overboard when Ochocinco was brought in, hailing the trade as another genius move by head coach Bill Belichick.  But the reality is that Ochocinco is nowhere near the deep threat he was a few years ago.  And even if he picked up the offense immediately, he would have been only a marginal improvement over Deion Branch.

At this point in Ochocinco’s career, he is a precise route-runner with the strength and grit to out-muscle corners at the line of scrimmage and compete for the ball on close plays.  In other words, he is a slightly taller, slightly stronger, much better tweeting version of Branch.  All Ochocinco lacks is knowledge of the playbook and the trust of Tom Brady.  And at this point it looks like he will lack those things for his entire, one-year Patriots career.

Reason #4:  The Cold, Hard Football Facts have shown that you don’t need a big-name wide receiver to win in the NFL.  Their comparison of big-name receivers to shiny hood ornaments (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/Archive_3360_Moss:_another_shiny_hood_ornament_wide_receiver.html) that look good but don’t add much to winning has been borne out time and again.

Big-name receivers like Ochocinco usually demand more throws their way, even if it’s only the subtle psychological pressure to use their talents as much as possible.  They also often complain in the press (though Ochocinco hasn’t yet), can be divisive in the locker room, and unfortunately, can be neutralized in the biggest games by playoff-caliber defenses that focus on taking them away.

It doesn’t necessarily hurt to have a great receiver (that Jerry Rice guy did okay in the post-season).  But there are about 50 pieces of the championship puzzle more important than the big-name receiver.  And Patriots fans should know that better than most -- all three of their Super Bowl victories came without one.

Reason #5:  His $6 million salary is already spent, so there’s no use crying about it.  Some have argued that since the Patriots spent a lot of money on Ochocinco they have to get something out of him.  That is nonsense.

Almost every year there is virtual All Star team of big money free agents who never pan out with their new team.  Between injuries, the inability to learn new systems, position changes, lack of motivation after signing big contracts, locker room friction, and coaching conflicts, there are myriad reasons why free agents sometimes just don’t work out.

Only a foolish team wastes valuable playing time and coaching energy on players just because the team paid them a lot of money.  How much money the Patriots paid Ochocinco is irrelevant to the current situation -- the $6 million is now guaranteed so there’s no point in worrying about it.

If the Patriots think Ochocinco is making progress (and there is evidence he is), then they should continue to work with him.  But how much money he makes should have no bearing on playing time or how often they target him in the passing game.

So there you have it, five good reasons you don’t need to worry about Chad Ochocinco.  Maybe one of these weeks he will have a breakout game and start tweeting up interest again.  But until then, concentrate your energy on the improved Patriots defense and running game, or bemoan the problems at safety or the lack of depth on the offensive line.  But Ochocinco shouldn’t occupy much of your time.

Patriots Edge Cowboys 20-16 On Late Brady TD

The Dallas Cowboys seem determined not to be a factor in the AFC East race. They blew late leads to both the Patriots and Jets, as if they didn't want anyone mad at them for picking favorites. Perhaps they'll complete the superfecta and throw away games to the Bills and Dolphins in November... after all, it would only be fair at this point.

The Patriots proved they are four points less sucky than the Cowboys, hanging on for a 20-16 victory. The win catapulted 5-1 New England into first place in the AFC East all by their lonesome, as the Buffalo Bills felll to 4-2. The Jets and Dolphins play on Monday Night, with a loss by the Jets being most desirable, since it would put them three full games behind the Patriots in the division. Also, the Patriots lead the entire AFC in winning percentage, and trail only undefeated Green Bay in the NFL.

Yesterday's contest was sloppy, sloppy, sloppy, and that dulled the excitement you'd usually have in a game this close. The Cowboys came out of their bye week with an interception and a fumble in the first quarter. Not to be outdone, the Patriots went into their bye week the same way, with another tipped-ball INT by Tom Brady and a Matthew Slater fumble on a kickoff return (both in the first quarter). All told there were 6 turnovers, 5 sacks, 15 accepted penalties and 5 declined ones, maybe 12-15 dropped passes, and about 100 missed tackles. Looks like both coaches have a lot to work on this week.

The defense remains a puzzle for at least one more week. It is difficult to tell if they are doing better or if the one-dimensional Jets and self-inflicted-wound Cowboys made them look better. Dallas only got 3.2 yards a rush for the game, an excellent number for the defense. But the quick-misdirection runs gave them fits in the second half. The Patriots also held the Cowboys to 33% on third down and in the red zone, and those numbers are encouraging. However, there are still gaping holes in their zone coverage, as evidenced by the 7 passes of 15-yards or more. And when the Patriots blitzed to get more pressure, it had very bad results. But on the other hand, they got another goal-line defensive stop to hold the Cowboys to a field goal in the fourth quarter, and then got a three-and-out when they had to get the ball back for the offense to win the game.

The defensive line provided a bit more pass rush on its own yesterday, led by Andre Carter (2 sacks, 2 QB hits, 5 tackles). 2011 Stalwarts Vince Wilfork (2 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 1 pass defended) and Kyle Love continue to do the heavy lifting inside, although Albert Haynesworth played more and better, with a hit on Romo that caused an important incompletion late in the game. And Gerard Warren came off the street to recover a fumble and get a few tackles. With Mike Wright out for the season, they need contributions from both Haynesworth and Warren, as well as Shaun Ellis, who has been hot-and-cold so far.

At linebacker, Gary Guyton starred on the stat sheet, with ten total tackles. However, my eyes tell me that recent whipping boy Brandon Spikes stepped it up, blowing up plays in the backfield and notching eight tackles of his own. Granted, they joined the team in missing their share of tackles. But between the two of them, they held down the medium zones in pass coverage so at least not much got behind them. However, they were also the pair most victimized by the mis-direction runs. No question the team misses Jerod Mayo, who is a tackling machine and brought both smarts and attitude to the field. No timetable yet on his return; but he will almost certainly be back this year.

The secondary looked awful in the medium-to-deep zone, doing the classic tackle-after-the-catch thing. Devin McCourty and Leigh Bodden do not excel in zone coverage, and the team should play more press/man to take advantage of their skills. Patrick Chung was all over the field, making ten tackles in run and pass support, and Kyle Arrington wasn't far behind (nine tackles, and an interception). James Ihedigbo is making a case as the second greatest safety to play for the UMass Minutemen (check's in the mail, right JD?) -- though more seriously he seems to understand the defense pretty well and has improved each game.

Dallas' defensive game plan clearly centered on stopping receivers Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski, and it only sort of worked. Welker had 6 catches for 45 yards and 1 touchdown, Gronkowski caught everything thrown his way -- 7 catches on 7 attempts, for 74 yards. But that left Aaron Hernandez open for 14 targets, of which he caught 8 passes for 68 yards and the game-winning touchdown. However, Hernandez also had a crucial fumble, and should have caught at least two more of those passes. He's still coming back from surgery, and he will improve in the coming weeks.

Quarterback Tom Brady didn't exactly light the world on fire with his 27 of 41 passing for 289 yards, 2 touchdowns and (most telling on the day) two interceptions, the second of which was just a terrible decision on his part. Not great numbers, and there are some disturbing signs around the quarterback: his second interception should have been thrown away instead, he has too many tipped-ball interceptions this season, and he completed passes to only six different receivers on Sunday. He once prided himself on throwing the ball away instead of risking turnovers, and he regularly completed passes to ten (or more) different receivers a week. Brady has the bye week to correct these bad habits, and he needs to do so if the Patriots expect to make the playoffs and make any noise once they are there.

One factor in Brady's mediocre play was the same level of play from the offensive line. They are getting better at run blocking, but they should remember that protecting the quarterback is more important to their long-term prospects than getting four yards a carry on the ground. They seemed confused by some of Dallas' stunts and games up front. And even though Dallas has some excellent defensive linemen, Brady was hit eight times and sacked thrice -- probably too much for his long-term health.

The running game was productive if not as dominating as it was the last two weeks. BenJarvus Green-Ellis continues to shoulder the load... shouldering it right into defenders and driving them backwards most of the time, to the tune of 58 yards and a 4.1 yard average. Oh, and if you think Danny Woodhead hasn't been doing much in the running game, you are right. Four weeks ago, he carried 6 times for 21 yards; since then he has just 6 rushes for 21 yards in three games. Although he did have a nice catch-and-run in the passing game this week.

Part of the unevenness of the run could be attributed to excellent play-calling by Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. But part of it was also bad play-calling by Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien (or perhaps Brady in the two-minute offense). Too often the Patriots followed decent gains with losses that turned second-and-short into third-and-long.

Once it was third-and-long, the drive was often over, as Ryan would dial up an effective blitz and end the play early. O'Brien needs to keep an eye on when to call run, pass, or screen pass -- he has done well against most teams, but in the playoffs the defensive play-calling will put him to the test, just as it has the past two years (tests he has failed both times).

The least special special teams play was Matt Slater's fumble in the first quarter. It didn't cost them any points, as the Cowboys kindly fumbled it back five plays later. But Slater, a beast in kickoff coverage, should know that special teams fumbles are especially devastating, as they often come after the other team scores. It was no surprise that Stevan Ridley replaced Slater in kick returns for the rest of the game.

So where does that leave us? At 5-1 and with a bye week, the Patriots have plenty of work to do. They need to distribute the ball more in the passing game, integrate Stevan Ridley in the running game, cure Tom Brady of his interception bug, get the pass rush on track, get Jerod Mayo healthy, and convert secondary to play press coverage instead of zone. Sounds like a busy week.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Nine words I never thought I would write -- Kyle Arrington leads the entire league with four interceptions.

Trivia Question: Only one NFL team has scored more points than they've allowed this season and still sports a losing record -- name the team (answer below).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I'll start worrying about winning ugly when the NFL starts giving extra victories for pretty ones."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-1!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:
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Believe it or not, the 1-4 Minnesota Vikings have scored 5 more points than they've allowed.

Patriots Overwhelm Jets 30-21

In a game dubbed "a battle between hall of fame coaches," the one going the Pro Football Hall of Fame (Bill Belichick) beat the one going to the Blowhard Hall of Fame (Rex Ryan). The Patriots 30-21 win keeps pace with the surprising Buffalo Bills and opens a two-game lead over the Jets in the division. The Cowboys are in town next week, and I hope to be well enough to attend that tilt.

(Note: I was scheduled to be at the game yesterday, but I was a late scratch with a long-lasting flu that left me too weak to properly intimidate the visitors from NY. Fortunately, Al the Foxboro Weather God found a last-minute replacement, who filled in admirably according to all reports, and had a great time to boot! In the Patriots tradition of "Next man up!" -- thank you Steve, for pitching in for the team.)

As for the game, the Drive Chart tells you all you really need to know.  The Jets scored on 3 of 11 possessions, while the Patriots scored on 6 of 11. And the Jets had seven 3-and-out possessions, while the Patriots had just one. Aside from that, there weren't a lot of game-changers: both teams had one big play (73-yard pass by the Pats, 88-yard kick return by the Jets), they combined to lose zero fumbles, and the lone interception (by the Jets) simply kept the score close.

So without the usual game-changers, there wasn't really domination, just a long, slow grind-down of the Jets defense by the Patriots offense.  New England outperformed New York in first downs (26 to 14), third-down efficiency (50% to 27%), yards per pass attempt (7.9 to 5.6), total yards (446 to 255), surprisingly rushing yards (152 to 97), and time of possession (33:55 to 26:05).

The Patriots defense slowed the running game long enough to get the lead, and when the Jets had to make key third-down conversions through the air, one of two things usually happened: either the Jets dropped the ball or the Patriots secondary jumped the short route and forced quarterback Mark Sanchez to throw it away. That is how you get off the field on third-down; though the Patriots can't take all the credit, Jets receivers should take a bow for dropping easy passes that might have extended drives.

The Jets running attack was up-and-down, which is what caused most of their three-and-outs. The largest portion of blame for the big gains lies at the feet of the Patriots linebackers, who were short their best run-stopper (Jerod Mayo) and had multiple breakdowns and missed gaps. The press keeps touting Brandon Spikes for his recent play, but it just doesn't show up on the field. He and Gary Guyton made about 10 of their 15 tackles 7 - 10 yards downfield, and both blitzed into bad spots and missed tackles near the line that could have helped. Oh, and please call the local authorities if you see Jermaine Cunningham, because he is Mr. Invisible out there.

The defensive line did what it could; but mostly they were double-teamed or run away from, so it was the linebackers' responsibility to make tackles. Kyle Love and Vince Wilfork continue to be their most consistent linemen, and they were helped by the return of Albert Haynesworth, who didn't play a lot but was effective when he did. The quarterback pressure still comes from the outside; Mark Anderson got to Sanchez twice, sharing one sack with Rob Ninkovich. Andre Carter hasn't found his pre-season form, but he's better against the run that he showed in the pre-season, which helped against a run-first team like the Jets.

If you listen to the press, you will hear them howl about the secondary again this week. But the fact is the cornerbacks played better in this game. Leigh Bodden actually got in front of a pass and knocked it away, and for the most part they did a great job cutting off routes on third down. Kyle Arrington is still scary in one-on-one coverage, and the safeties have to improve if the Pats expect to beat teams with better quarterbacks. But they are improving; it's just be a matter of how quickly they progress.

For one week, the offense wasn't all about the quarterback -- finally a running back can take a bow: step up to the podium, BenJarvus Green-Ellis. The veteran running back ran left, right, up the middle, out of the shotgun formation, got his longest run on a direct-snap, and totaled 136 yards on 27 carries with 2 touchdowns. The week after I said Stevan Ridley should be starting, BJGE showed some burst, great balance after the initial hit, and lots of power. He and the offensive line wore down the Jets defense, to the point where they couldn't stop the run even when they knew it was coming.

On the Patriots offensive line, Matt Light, Logan Mankins, and tight end Rob Gronkowski got huge push off the line, putting the Jets defense on their heels and forcing more run-blitzes to counter the effective running game. Light and Gronkowski pancaked at least four or five defenders each, and Brian Waters pulled around from right guard to wham-block in the middle.

The pass protection was another matter. Tom Brady was sacked four times and hit five others, with pressure mostly coming from edge blitzes. Several mis-communications let Jets bltizters run free to the quarterback, and that has to be addressed before the rematch in New York. Tom Brady handled it well; his 24 of 33, 321 yards and 1 touchdown seem pedestrian these days, but with the pressure he was under he did well not to have more than the 1 interception (an INT that was completely Aaron Hernandez' fault).

The receiving corps got a boost from the return of Hernandez, who had 5 catches for 56 yards and helped stretch the Jets defense. One other thing that stretched the defense was Wes Welker's 73-yard catch and run past a cheating safety -- Welker ended the day with 5 catches for 124 yards. Deion Branch was the main target on the day, notching 7 grabs for 74 yards and a touchdown. And both Chad Ochocinco and Gronkowski added important third-down catches on drives at the end of the half and the game, respectively.

Special teams were okay but not great. Stephen Gostkowski went 3-3 on field goals, and he and punter Zoltan Mesko mostly kept the Jets pinned back in their own territory. And Tracy White and Matthew Slater seem deadlocked in a fight to be the best special teams tackler. However, the 88-yard kickoff return led directly to a touchdown, and that could have made it a game if they weren't careful. And without regular kick returner Julian Edelman, substitute Ridley needs to down the ball when it's 8 yards in the end zone.

(Note to the NFL, the Jets appear to be running an illegal wedge on their kickoff returns, with three or four players side-by-side.  Might want to check into that.)

The coaches continue to show flexibility and a desire to protect Tom Brady from continuous blitzing. The defensive scheme was great -- slow down the run and then jam short routes on third-down. And the players worked it to near perfection, giving up just two long drives and a bunch of three-and-outs.

So where does that leave us? 4-1 and looking at a game against Rex Ryan's brother, Rob (defensive coordinator of the Cowboys), with the Cowboys coming off a bye week. In fact, as I wrote in the Season Preview, the last time Rob Ryan had an extra week to plan for the Patriots, the result was a stunning loss in Cleveland last year. So don't think this is a gimme. Best hope that Tony Romo is his usual careless self, and that he turns the ball over a few times. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: BenJarvus Green-Ellis now has 427 career touches and zero fumbles.

Bonus Statistical Oddity (courtesy of CBS): Brady's interception was the first home-game red zone interception of his NFL career.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "BenJarvus looked like Corey Dillon out there; all he needs is a better stiff-arm and shorter hair."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  4-1!

Patriots Roll Over Raiders, 31-19

Your Patriots bounced back in fine style, rolling over the Oakland Raiders 31-19. The win gives the Patriots a share of the lead in the AFC East, as the Buffalo Bills lost on a last-second field goal -- both teams are 3-1 for the year.  The same can't be said for the Jets, who lost to Baltimore to fall to 2-2, but they are still 2 games ahead of the woeful 0-4 Dolphins.

The Patriots appeared to learn their lesson from the Bills loss last weekend, using the pass to get the lead and then the run to keep it and use up some clock.  With all the passing in Buffalo, the teams combined for 25 possessions and 65 points; with the running this week it was 20 possessions and 50 points. And much more important was the running game slowed down the opposing pass rush -- and Tom Brady dropped his interception total from 4 against Buffalo to 0 against Oakland.

The Pats running attack consisted of two very different backs. Veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis carried the load early, with 8 rushes in each half and 75 yards and 1 touchdown. He isn't often referred to as shifty or a guy with outstanding moves, but he cut well and made very good yardage between the tackles. He also blocked well in pass protection and downfield (knocked a linebacker on his ass to spring Wes Welker on a 24-yard catch and run).

Rookie Stevan Ridley played more because Danny Woodhead got dinged in the game, and he made the most of his opportunity: 10 rushes for 97 yards and 1 touchdown. Ridley showed excellent burst and cutting ability, and he never runs out of control, always able to make another cut if a lane opens up. I've been touting Ridley since the pre-season, and not only is he their most dynamic back, he still hasn't missed a pass-blocking assignment, and was even targeted three times in the passing game. And his 8.2 yards per carry is second in the NFL among running backs with at least 10 carries (big ups to you if you can name the league leader, answer below.)

The Patriots offensive line did a great job run blocking, using zone schemes and mixing in tight end whams to open creases. And the timing was impeccable, with backs hitting the hole just as it opened and sometimes getting through just before it closed. Rookie Nate Solder did a great job in the running game and a credible job in pass protection. Oft-maligned Matt Light was outstanding against the edge rush (only beaten once), and props to Logan Mankins -- a man among boys sometimes, but always effective and a hitter.  Also, the fact that we never mention bad snaps or crushing pressure up the middle means Dan Connolly is doing the job in place of longtime center Dan Koppen (out for the year, lest we forget).

The protection and running game combined to make the passing attack even more dangerous. Wes Welker was the star again: 9 catches for 158 yards and 1 touchdown. Other than that it was few catches spread around; 2 grabs for Chad Ochocinco and a single catch each for five other receivers. Rob Gronkowski is getting much tighter coverage with Aaron Hernandez out, and Deion Branch doesn't seem to have the ability to get open against press coverage. Hernandez is supposed to be back soon, which should open things up for the rest of the crew; we shall see.

Brady was not spectacular; but who cares? 16 of 30 for 226 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He did not put the ball in harm's way and mixed in the run to keep himself clean (just 1 sack for 0 yards). And played tough yesterday -- showing great poise even when he was hit illegally by old teammate Richard Seymour and not losing his cool when another Raiders lineman whacked him in the head, with no penalty flag.  Even though he was sacked just once,  the Raiders hit him four times; but he never got mad... he just got even.

On defense, it was never about stopping the quarterback or the passing game, it was all about stopping the run. The Patriots used a 5-2-4 alignment to give themselves more bodies at the line and slow down Raiders running back Darren McFadden, who leads the league in rushing yards. And they were pretty effective, holding McFadden to one long gain (41 yards) and 13 carries for 31 yards other than that. He never got fully untracked, although it is scary to see him with room to run.

Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love stuffed the inside run, leaving it to fellow defensive linemen Andre Carter and Shaun Ellis to clean things up. Love is a big surprise, perhaps playing the best of all the D-linemen; though Carter does well getting after the passer when he's unleashed and Ellis can play pass or run. Still waiting for Albert Haynesworth to return to the rotation, something that will be even more important with Myron Pryor out for the year and Mike Wright recovering from a concussion.

The linebackers are still the biggest concern, and that's saying something given all the problems in the secondary. Jerod Mayo is easily their best LB, and he got injured yesterday (no timetable for a return). Rob Ninkovich doesn't get beaten often (though the tight ends got him twice yesterday), but he rarely makes a big play. And Brandon Spikes still plays like he thinks he's better than he really is. His screw up turned what should have been a 5-yard gain into a 41-yard scamper for McFadden, and he misses three-times as many plays as he makes. It's saying something when Dane Fletcher is your second-best linebacker, and no one even knows what number he wears!

The return of Patrick Chung helped the secondary, because now only half the safeties were problematic, and Sergio Brown held up his end as the weak link. We shouldn't expect a lot from a second-year safety who barely got on the field last year; but please just take a decent angle and break up a pass once in a while. Brown blew it on a 58-yard pass very late in the game, and thankfully it didn't hurt the outcome. But it was perfectly set up for him to break up the play or even go for an interception, and instead it looked like he wanted to avoid contact. Not exactly what you're looking for from the safety position.

Leigh Bodden was out of the game, and that didn't turn out to be a bad thing. He must have been injured early this year, because he's been terrible, and it makes sense for him to get healthy. The backups didn't do any worse than he did, so he should let his groin pull heal up before attempting to play again. Devin McCourty didn't get beaten as badly as he has lately; but it's clear he thrives in man-on-man press coverage. His lack of aggression in a zone kills him, and even though it's riskier to play man-to-man, McCourty needs that to play well.

Special Interception Section.  Patrick Chung should write a nice "thank you" note to Raiders quarterback Jason Campbell. Campbell threw one right into Chung's hands in the Patriots end zone, killing a drive and giving Chung the biggest gift pick he'll ever get. And some guy named Vince Wilfork got another one yesterday, wrapping his arms around a throw right to him at the line of scrimmage. That's two INTs in three games for Vince, and he leads the team with 47 interception return yards.

The coaching was much better against the Raiders. After getting the early lead, the Patriots mixed in more running plays to slow down the pass rush, run some clock, and keep the defense honest. The decision to utilize Ridley paid off. And even when the game was close, it was smart to stack the line against McFadden and dare Campbell to beat you. He's now 0-2 against the Patriots, and with good reason -- he has six turnovers in those two games.

So where does that leave us? 3-1 is nice and all, but the games don't get any easier. Next week the division rival New York Jets will be in town, fresh off a 34-17 loss to the Ravens and no doubt hungry to get back in the division race. The Jets will be on their third consecutive road game, and will have a shortish week to prepare (they played Sunday night). And they might be emotionally spent, given Rex Ryan's connection with the Baltimore Ravens. But don't count on any letdown by New York -- the Patriots will have to protect the ball and play better on defense if they expect to win.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Kyle Arrington is tied for the league lead in interceptions and Vince Wilfork is tied for fifth -- you tell me which is odder!

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I must have mis-read something -- weren't the Raiders going to run it down our throats?"

Keep the faith,

PS.  3-1!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:

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New Orleans running back Darren Sproles leads NFL running backs with 8.9 yards per carry (minimum 10 carries).