The Patriots spotted Miami a 17-point lead, then roared back with five straight scoring drives to eke out a 27-24 victory. The win gives them a first-round bye in the playoffs, and if they beat Buffalo on New Year's Day, they will own the #1 seed in the AFC. They will also avenge an early-season loss to the Bills, and perhaps start another win-streak against them.
You've probably read elsewhere that it was a game of two halves: 17-0 Miami to start, and 27-7 Patriots to finish. True enough, but it was more about effective Patriots adjustments than bad play by the Dolphins. Running back Reggie Bush ran 16 times for 81 yards in the first half; but the Patriots formation changes limited him to 6 carries and 32 yards in the last second. Quarterback Matt Moore looked like a world-beater after 30 minutes but was just beaten down in the last 30:00:
Moore's first half: 10 for 19, 179 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 sacks (7 yards)
Moore's second half: 6 for 13, 102 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks (21 yards)
The Patriots biggest defensive adjustments were to funnel the running game toward the middle, and to run-blitz and go to the quarterback if it turned out to be a pass play. This was the third week in a row where they had to stop overreacting to run-action fakes, and they have to get that worked out earlier in playoff games.
Pats QB Tom Brady got pretty beaten up in the first half, owing to a make-shift offensive line. Matt Light was a late scratch, and the shifting up front gave the Pats some problems in the first half. But they made enough adjustments to get it going in the second half, aided by the quick-strike no-huddle.
No time for a detailed breakdown of the game, but here are the trends as we head into the last game of the regular season.
1. Devin McCourty is coming on strong. In the first 10.5 games, he had 2 passes defended and no interceptions. In the last 2.5 games, he had 9 passes defended, 1 interception, and 1 interception called back on a penalty. He stunk up the joint for most of the season, but if he comes through in the playoffs, all will be forgiven.
2. They need Patrick Chung for the playoffs. Safety play is their biggest problem now, and the current mish-mash of players are great against the run and do their best with limited talent. But in the passing game, they commit too early, giving the quarterback easy decisions down the field. And their bad angles make for lots of tackles after the catch but not many broken up passes.
Chung is their only solution here; they cut James Sanders before the season, and they have so little talent at safety that receiver Matthew Slater fills in.
3. They might have to adjust formations for Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. Teams seem determined to take them both away, and that is much more difficult when they line up on opposite sides of the formation. On the same side of the field, you can cover them both effectively with three defenders. But on opposite sides, you have to commit four (two on each player), which opens things up for Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch, and the running backs.
4. Brady injured his shoulder, but if he can go in the playoffs, he has to be sharper early in the game. The Patriots averaged just 4.0 points in the first quarters of their last 10 games, down from 8.4 points per game prior to that. To help the offense and give Brady more time to work into the flow of the game, offensive coordinator should work in some more running plays and perhaps go up-tempo earlier.
5. Julian Edelman will be more valuable on defense than offense once the post-season starts. His size and quickness make him better-suited to cover slot receivers than the current Patriots linebackers. And Edelman has been an afterthought on offense; so maybe he should spend all of his practice time working with the defense instead.
6. Offensive line health is key. The O-line had trouble against Miami early on, but they made the proper adjustments and got things straightened out. But the situation is dire -- they are down to their third and fourth centers of the season, and with Matt Light out last game, had to shift a guard to tackle and that made them weaker all along the line.
One more injury could prove fatal to their playoff chances.
7. Stevan Ridley has young, fresh legs -- use them. Ridley shows great burst, and still hasn't missed more than a few blocking assignments all year. The Patriots should use him in the hurry-up offense. Given more space to work with, Ridley could gash defenses and make them play the run, even in the shotgun/spread formation.
8. Unsung hero of the year so far: Zoltan Mesko. Because the Patriots score so much, Mesko doesn't have as many punts as the league average. But his numbers are eye-popping on only 55 kicks: 42% of his punts end up inside the 20 yard line; 31% result in a fair catch; and his 41.4 yard average is fourth in the NFL. Also, it was noted on a recent broadcast that the longest punt return against him is 26 yards.
Additionally, Mesko handles his field-goal holder duties flawlessly, despite working with four different long snappers in two years. In crucial situations this year, Mesko booted long punts to turn around field position. All in all, not bad work for a guy who hardly gets on the field.
So where does that leave us? The victory guarantees the Patriots a first-round bye in the playoffs and a home playoff game. A win over Buffalo next week gives them home-field throughout the AFC playoffs. The game won't be easy; Buffalo has little left to lose, and would like nothing better than to sweep the team that beat them 15 straight times before this season.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: By the end of the weekend, it will be 143 regular-season games since the Patriots sported a losing record. They lost to Buffalo on opening day in 2003, to fall to 0-1. Since that time, they have never had a record below .500 at any time during any season.
Note: if you don't think that's impressive, the second longest such streak in NFL history was 96 games, which means the Patriots streak is 49% longer than the second best streak ever ( (trivia question: can you name the team?).
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Sorry, I don't have anything to add this week -- my blogger friend slacked off instead of sending me an update."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 12-3!
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This week's opponent, the Buffalo Bills, were never below .500 between 1988 and 1993.
The Patriots proved their mettle yesterday and came away with a 41-23 victory in Denver. They improved to 11-3 and clinched another AFC East title, and they currently hold the #1 seed in the AFC (pending the Pittsburgh game tonight). Up next the Buffalo Bills come to Foxboro for a rematch on Christmas Eve day, and the Bills are reeling, losers of seven straight after a fast start to the season.
The 41-23 final score does not indicate how nerve-wracking the first half was. The Broncos ran the ball at will early on and scored on three consecutive drives to lead 16-7 after the first 20 minutes. But the battle-tested Patriots rode three turnovers and good second-half adjustments to a 34-7 thrashing the rest of the way. The young Broncos wilted in the spotlight, with fumbles by three players in their second or third years in the league.
When the other team runs for 167 yards in the first quarter there are lots of culprits. But the one who stood out was linebacker Rob Ninkovich. He lost outside contain on at least four long runs and then inexplicably let Denver running backs break *inside* after that. It was ugly watching him play in the first half. He did have a fumble recovery and in the second half got a loooong sack (28 yards); but while blitzing the Denver quarterback he let Tim Tebow outside the pocket for big plays. All around a disappointing day from a usually solid-but-not-spectacular player.
As for the rest of the defense, it was a tale of two halves. The linebackers went for too many play-action fakes in the first half, but played better when they could ignore the run because of the big lead. The defensive line couldn't lay a glove on Denver's running backs early, but run-blitzed to clog things up in the second half. And the defensive backfield was left high-and-dry early on, as the front seven got repeatedly gashed and the safeties and corners broke coverage to make tackles. But in the second half, they mostly held their coverage long enough and were pretty tight on the receivers.
And to put it bluntly about the secondary, they are in big trouble if they don't get Patrick Chung back for the playoffs. The current safety play is the worst since Bob Kraft bought the team; too many bad angles and incorrect guesses (though in fairness the tackling is okay). On third-and-18 late in the game, Sergio Brown covered no one while Denver wideout Demaryius Thomas ran a deep sideline pattern for 39 yards. On the play Devin McCourty expected help, and on the replay it was obvious that help was supposed to be Brown.
Chung has been out for a while, and the Patriots have survived against lesser teams in his absence. But the team won't be going anywhere in the playoffs without improved safety play, and their only chance at that is a return by Chung.
Fortunately for the defense the offense converted three turnovers into points. After a fumble (forced by Ron Brace, recovered by Ninkovich), the Patriots settled for a field goal when a quick-pass to Aaron Hernandez in the end zone was just short. That was emblematic of quarterback Tom Brady's first half, when he had a few off-target passes and a middling 57% completions. But he drove them for a touchdown after a great play by linebacker Mark Anderson (strip-sack of Tebow *and* fumble recovery). And just before the half, a fumble on a late punt gave them a gift three points.
The Patriots started fast, with a 5-play, 80-yard touchdown that ended with a beautifully designed play on Chad Ochocinco's first Patriots score (33 yards along the left sideline). As mentioned, Brady wasn't sharp at first, and the offense stagnated after that initial drive. But the turnovers turned things around, and once they had the lead, Brady sliced the Denver defense the rest of the game. He had nine incompletions in the first half, and just two in the second half, and ended the day 23-34, 320 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Hernandez was the receiving star of the day -- 9 grabs for 129 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos defense obviously didn't want to get beaten by Wes Welker (4 for 41) or Rob Gronkowski (4 for 53), and that's the beauty of having so many offensive weapons. Neither Hernandez nor Gronkowski can be covered one-on-one by linebackers or safeties, so the opponent has to choose whom to cover with a cornerback and hope the other one doesn't kill them. In this case, Hernandez was more than happy to benefit from double-teams on Welker and Gronkowski.
For the first time in a while, the leading rusher wasn't BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He couldn't get anything going, so the Pats brought in rookie Stevan Ridley and his patient style exposed gaps in the Denver D. He ran 11 times for 65 yards, and gave just the right change of pace to keep the Broncos honest and slow down the pass rush just enough. Danny Woodhead (7 for 40) had some nifty moves in traffic, and Brady had a few QB sneaks (one for a touchdown).
The coaching staff did a great job of adjusting this week. The first few series saw a lot of Denver pressure on Brady. So they used running backs and tight ends to chip the Denver pass rushers, and that calmed things down up front. And in the second half, they run-blitzed most of the time, and with a few very notable exceptions contained Tebow in the pocket. It was clear Tebow wasn't going to take chances with the ball, so with the pressure and his inexperience, he had a very bad second half.
So where does that leave us? 11-3 and winners of the AFC East, the Patriots now control whether or not they have a first-round playoff bye. If they win their last two games, they will rest the first week of the playoffs. And if they do that, and Pittsburgh loses one of their last three games, the Patriots will be the #1 seed in the AFC.
This week against Buffalo is less risky than the last game against Miami; but Buffalo already beat the Patriots once this year and they play better against the Pats in Foxboro. Hopefully the team won't overlook the Bills, and to that end, Bill Belichick has almost certainly reminded them about the 34-31 shootout they lost.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have given up over 250 rushing twice -- and won both games. They gave up 252 yesterday, and the other game was in 2002, can you name the opponent that day (answer below)?
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It looked to me like the Broncos were overwhelmed by the moment. Three fumbles by three young players; I think that tells you they were nervous."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 11-3!
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Despite giving up 256 yards on the ground, the Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins on the last day of the season in 2002, 27-24.
The Patriots survived another close one but came out on top of Washington, 34-27. The win kept them two games ahead of the Jets in the AFC East and one win (or a Jets loss) from claiming another division crown. (Note: I misinformed you last week -- the Patriots did not clinch the AFC East title with their win. My apologies.) Up next is a match with Tim Tebow and the Broncos in Denver, which if you ask the six teams he's beaten will be no easy task.
Yesterday's game in Washington was back and forth, and featured more scoring by Mike Shanahan's charges than many expected. But after three quarters of high-powered offense, the teams went 0-for the fourth quarter and traded red zone interceptions to effectively end the game. Tom Brady giveth, and Jerod Mayo taketh away, and the Patriots escaped with their fifth consecutive win.
One Patriots player was a microcosm of the entire Patriots defense, as that unit played almost exactly the way corner Devin McCourty did as an individual. Both gave up too many big gains in the passing game. Both stuffed the inside run but lost contain and missed assignments on outside rushes and misdirection/trick plays. And both took bad drops and angles that gave Washington too much room in zone coverage. But in the end both McCourty and the defense made big plays at critical times to stop drives and force turnovers or punts.
McCourty allowed three big plays to former Patriots receivers Donte Stallworth (51 and 23 yards) and Jabar Gaffney (23 yards). But he also notched three passes defended and eight tackles on the day, including plays that forced punts on two of the last three Washington drives. The Patriots need to see more of the latter from McCourty as they drive toward the playoffs.
His secondary mates didn't fare very well at all. Safety James Ihedigbo blew coverage on two touchdowns (one trick play, one "pick" play), and Kyle Arrington had six tackles but did little to stop passes from being completed. As a unit, they gave up 15.1 yards a catch, a number that usually loses you the game. It is probably enough to say that wide receiver Julian Edelman had the second best coverage on the day, and that the only non-McCourty pass knock-downs were by linebackers (Jerod Mayo and Tracy White).
Speaking of linebackers, they are just barely holding that unit together. Mayo is fine now, looking fully recovered from his injury. He followed-up his first career interception last week with his second yesterday -- a game-saving INT as Washington was driving for a tying score. He topped the team with eight tackles and even got some pressure on the quarterback.
Rob Ninkovich is okay, but seems overmatched in pass coverage and trying to hold the edge against the run. It was nice to see Dane Fletcher back, but they really need Brandon Spikes to return. He isn't great, but he gives the unit an intangible stability and attitude. The press overblows how well Spikes plays, but whenever he's out there, Mayo plays better and they seem to cover the mid-level passing game a lot more effectively.
Along the defensive line, Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love (in concert with Mayo, McCourty, and Fletcher) did a really nice job clogging up runs through the middle. The problems came with the classic Shanahan "stretch play" around end. Andre Carter and Mark Anderson were forced past the quarterback and neutralized by the stretch play too often.
Carter did come up with an important forced fumble (recovered by Wilfork for his first career touchdown). But if the Patriots don't want to get run over next week, they will have to do better forcing the run back inside. Note: both Brandon Deaderick and Shawn Ellis did fine in spot duty; though the team probably expected more from Ellis this season.
The offense called 40 pass plays and just 18 rushes. In one way it made sense; they averaged 16.2 yards a catch for the game. But in another way it made no sense at all. Tom Brady and his receivers (Deion Branch and Wes Welker specifically) had communication problems early in the game. And Brady missed a wide open Danny Woodhead on an easy check-down -- all of which left him under 50% completions at the half.
The passing attack eventually got in sync, and combined with the no-huddle, the pace was lightning fast (average scoring drive was just 2:53). Tom Brady's stats were wonderful as usual (22 of 37 for 357 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception). But the one interception was crucial, as the Patriots could have iced the game with a field goal and only needed to avoid that turnover. I heard he had words with the offensive coordinator after that; maybe there's a news story posted somewhere about that.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski continues to be the Chuck Norris of Patriots receivers, an unstoppable force that appears to dominate effortlessly. He had 6 catches for 160 yards and grabbed 2 touchdown passes for the sixth time this year, which leads the entire NFL (trivia question: name the player in second place with four such games this season, answer below). Welker was his usual indispensable self (7-86, 1 touchdown).
The other tight end, Aaron Hernandez, diversified the passing game with 5 for 84. And Chad Ochocinco got his requisite one catch (for an important first down), and that was about it for the passing game. Still a little too dependent on a few receivers, but very effective yesterday.
And you can't have an effective passing game without at least good offensive line play. Which is what the Patriots got, good O-line play, not great, not bad, just good. The O-line allowed a little too much pressure (1 sack, 6 quarterback hits) and didn't open up many rushing lanes (except for Woodhead's shotgun runs). They do have the injury excuse; they had only seven offensive linemen active for the game, including rookies Marcus Cannon and Nate Solder (who started).
The running game isn't really worth mentioning; so I'll be brief. Danny Woodhead worked well out of the shotgun (8 rushes for 41 yards), but you know you can't run when you bring in 35 year-old Kevin Faulk to give the running attack a shot in the arm. And no matter what they think, the Patriots can't line up in a power formation and run the ball against any decent defense. So they should probably stop trying -- deception works much better for them.
Special teams contributed a huge play early when Zoltan Mesko booted a punt that was downed inside the five yard-line by Matthew Slater. That turned into a fumble in the end zone and a New England touchdown; which is big in a game you win by seven points. Other than that, Julian Edelman had a nice punt return, and the kickoffs were plenty deep enough. But most of the field goals were easily make-able, so nothing special there.
In the battle of coaching wits, it appeared that Mike Shanahan won this round. He always gives Belichick a tough game, and if he had better talent (you know, better than a 4-9 record would indicate), he might have pulled this one out. And there was the argument on the sideline, something between a well-known quarterback and an unknown offensive coordinator. Not sure the details, but I'll have to check into it.
So where does that leave us? 10-3 and one game from an AFC East crown, that's where! The game next week is interesting, because the Patriots excel at beating teams with one-dimensional offenses, which is mostly what the Denver Broncos have. However, the game against Washington showed the Pats defense is vulnerable to outside runs, which his where the Broncos excel. An intriguing one for sure -- especially when you consider how badly the Patriots have played in Denver over the years.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Kansas City Chiefs versus the AFC East this year: 0-4 and outscored 141-23.
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "How bad is the Pats secondary? Two linebackers and a defensive lineman are tied for second on the team with 2 interceptions each. That's pretty bad." (Trivia question #2: name those players, answer below.)
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 10-3!
PPS. Trivia Answers:
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Answer #1: Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions started the season with four consecutive games with two touchdown catches (and he has no such games since then).
Answer #2: Defensive lineman Vince Wilfork and linebackers Rob Ninkovich and Jerod Mayo are tied for the second-most interceptions on the Patriots.
Don't let the final score fool you; the Patriots dominated most of the day and sent the Colts back to Indianapolis with a 31-24 loss and an embarrassing 0-12 record. The win puts the Patriots one win (or one loss by the New York Jets) away from their fourteenth division title, and keeps them in the race for the #1 or #2 seed in the AFC. Next up is a road trip to the nation's capital for a date with the boys from Washington.
Indy is so bad this season, they've only held the lead against one team that currently sports a winning record, and that lead lasted only 4:05 of game time. (Trivia question: name the team -- answer below.) And the Patriots did what good teams do when they play bad ones; they dominated and built up a four-touchdown lead. Unfortunately, they let off the offensive accelerator and allowed the Colts to rally back to a one-score loss.
Ill-timed penalties and costly turnovers didn't help the Colts' cause; but it didn't help to be playing one of the top teams in the AFC. Tom Brady was his usual magnificent self (29 of 38, 293 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 115.4 rating), Wes Welker caught all 11 passes thrown his way (for 114 yards), and budding superstar Dan Gronkowski caught 5 passes for 64 yards and 2 touchdowns -- and he ran for a third.
Brady spread the ball around to seven receivers, completing important throws to Deion Branch and even getting one to Chad Ochocinco and another to newcomer Tiquan Underwood. The running backs gained just 73 yards total (3.0 yards per carry), and the load was also spread around pretty evenly among Stevan Ridley (8 carries for 33 yards), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (6 for 14), and Danny Woodhead (4 for 12).
The offensive line did a good job in pass protection, in concert with short passing routes and quick releases. Not much of a running game to speak of; but they did keep Brady mostly clean on the day. And their third center of the year, Nick MacDonald... well, he didn't screw up any of the snaps, so that's good.
On defense, Vince Wilfork dominated inside, with 10 tackles and a sack. Newly signed defensive back Nate Jones had 9 tackles, and wide receiver Matthew Slater tied tackling machine Jerod Mayo for third on the team with 7 (note: Mayo added a spectacular interception). Slater played safety for much of the game, and did a poor job in coverage but apparently a good job tackling.
Corner Devin McCourty returned from injury, but to mixed reviews. He gave up completions on plays where he was in position to knock the ball away, but it is his first game back, so he deserves some slack. At least he isn't coming back closer to the playoffs; which would magnify every mistake -- the timing of his return gives him a few weeks to round into shape.
Not much pass rush this week. Outside rushers Andre Carter and Mark Anderson totaled 3 tackles, 0 sacks, and 0 QB pressures between them. Oft-rushing linebacker Rob Ninkovich did better all by himself -- adding a sack and a QB pressure to his own 3 tackles. Overall, still no sign the Pats will have much of a pass rush in the post-season; unless they get better play in the secondary, and that depends on improvement by McCourty and the healthy return of safety Patrick Chung.
Special teams have now recovered four consecutive onside kicks (including one called back for a penalty yesterday). Other than that, kicker Stephen Gostkowski had plenty of distance kicking with the wind and not enough against it. Punter Zoltan Mesko had an impressive 46.8 average; though he booted only one of them into the wind. And wide receiver (and defensive back) Julian Edelman makes very nifty moves on both punt and kickoff returns.
Nothing inspired about the coaching, except perhaps the experiment with Slater at safety. One hopes that doesn't mean Chung is out for the playoffs.
So where does that leave us? As stated above, 9-3 and one win from a division title sounds like the right place to be in early-December. The game in Washington is unlikely to tell us much about the Patriots defense; but Mike Shanahan's crew has a good defense, so it's a chance for the Pats offense to test themselves again.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: Colts QB Dan Orlovsky posted the best quarterback rating of his career (113.2). He'd never topped 100 before Sunday.
Bonus Statistical Oddity: Can't verify this easily, but I believe Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne had a career high in tackles yesterday. He made two tackles, one on the Colts fumble, and the other on the Colts interception.
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Packers and Niners get all the headlines, but the Pats clinch the AFC East with their next win."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 9-3!
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The Colts led the 9-3 Pittsburgh Steelers for just over four minutes.
