Giants Spoil Super Bowl Again, 21-17

The good news is that if the Patriots play the Giants next year, it means they made the Super Bowl again. The bad news... if the trend continues, they'll lose by five points next time. The Giants literally made a few more plays than the Patriots and notched a 21-17 win in Super Bowl XLII... I mean XLVI. The loss makes the Patriots 3-4 in the Super Bowl, and sends them back to the drawing board to prepare for season 13 of Tom Brady's career.

The Patriots offense missed opportunities in the first half -- a foolish safety taken by Tom Brady, and a blocked pass on third down that forced a field goal instead of a touchdown. And then they couldn't do enough in the second half -- scoring just seven points on the first drive, having a bad pass get intercepted, and losing a golden opportunity on Wes Welker's key drop. And in the end, those mistakes and missed opportunities, coupled with the inability to take advantage of bad penalties and fumbles by New York, led to the loss.

Aside from cornerback Antwaun Moulden, safety James Ihedigbo, and most of the defensive line, it's tough to pick out Patriots who had bad games. Moulden got beat early and often as the Giants sprinted out to a 9-0 lead. Ihedigbo just isn't the answer at safety; maybe he can bulk up and move to linebacker full-time next year. And defensive linemen Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick couldn't handle one-man blocks and got pushed off the ball all game long. Vince Wilfork followed up his best game as a pro with a mediocre effort where he got no pressure and didn't impact the Giants running game at all.

The Giants were able to run the ball better than anticipated, totaling 114 yards and 4.1 yards a carry. But they won the game through the air, with quarterback Eli Manning 30 of 40 for 296 yards 1 touchdown, no interceptions, and a 103.8 rating.  The Patriots running game was, as usual, best out of the shotgun/spread formation, and they got 4.4 yards a carry but just 83 yards overall. Brady had an average game, 27 of 41 for 276 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 killer interception, and a 91.1 rating.

In many ways, Brady's interception was like the late INT in the Ravens game two weeks earlier. The Patriots were near midfield, late in the game, and all they needed to do was run some time off the clock and score a touchdown or field goal to make the game almost impossible to lose. But again, Brady heaved it toward the end zone, and the pass was picked off on a good defensive play.

This time the play wasn't called in the huddle, it was a broken play. But with all that was on the line, Brady needed to be smarter and either take a short gain or throw the ball away. The Giants didn't score on the ensuing drive; but if the Patriots had run the clock and scored, they are likely world champions this morning.

The next drive was almost as maddening, with two consecutive just-miss passes to Wes Welker and Deion Branch, either of which would have put the Patriots in field goal range with a chance to run the clock down to less than 2:00. The first pass was thrown slightly behind Welker, though he still got two hands on it and should have caught it. And the second one was barely tipped by a Giants defender, which was just a good play by him.

Once the Giants got the ball back, it felt inevitable that the defense couldn't stop them again. New York had drives of 10, 9, 8, 7, 10, 9, and 10 plays to that point -- yet the defense had mostly kept them out of the end zone. However, a 9-play touchdown drive, with one excellent catch and a bunch of easy pitch-and-catch plays sealed the deal.

Again, it was the little things. As Belichick says all the time, the difference between teams at this level is razor thin, so any mistakes are magnified. If the Patriots had won, people would have looked at a potential pass-interference call that wasn't made against Sterling Moore, a holding call that cost the Giants a drive with 4:18 left, or the inability to hold the Patriot at their own 2 yard-line before the half.

But they won, so people will look at Brady's safety or INT, the Welker drop, and the fumbles that were recovered by New York. It's just the price of being in the big games; win and you're a hero, lose and you're a bum. Note: some would also cite the Giants fumble that was called back on a penalty, but given that the infraction was 12-men on the field, there's no way to know the fumble would have occurred without the 12th man or that the Pats wouldn't have recovered it without the extra defender.

As for who starred and sucked in the game, here's a short list. 

Starred 

1. Tight end Aaron Hernandez: 8 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown (and 1 important drop).

2. Receiver Wes Welker: 7 catches for 60 yards and 1 bad drop.

3. Receiver Deion Branch: 3 catches, 3 first downs (converted a third- and a fourth-down).

4. Running back Danny Woodhead: 4 catches and a touchdown, and 2 carries for 21 yards.

5. Linebackers Brandon Spikes and Jerod Mayo who combined for 22 tackles and 2 forced fumbles (and only blew 3 or 4 plays between them).

6. Safety Patrick Chung: 6 tackles, 1 pass defended, and several hard hits that knocked Giants players out of the game (some temporarily, some permanently).

7. Linebacker Mark Anderson: 5 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 2 QB hits, and very good pressure inside and out.

8. Punter Zoltan Mesko: pinned the Giants at their 12 on his last punt, and turned around field position with a 48-yarder in the second quarter.
 
9. Linebacker  Rob Ninkovich: not always pretty, but he got good pressure off the edge (0.5 sacks and 2 QB hits).

10. Gerard Warren and Shaun Ellis: stepped in for overmatched young players and were stout against the Giants running attack. 

Sucked 

1. Offensive guard Logan Mankins: missed too many assignments and didn't get much push on running plays.

2. Moulden, Ihedigbo, Deaderick, and Love: for reasons already covered.

3. Whomever the 12th man was on the aforementioned penalty.

The rest of the team was somewhere in between, as was the coaching. Once again, the Patriots came out with a bad offensive game plan and got shut out in the first quarter of the Super Bowl. (Trivia question: name the last Patriots player to score for the team in the first quarter of a Super Bowl; answer below.)

Offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien is off to Penn State next year, and we'll be back to Josh McDaniels -- the man who got overmatched in the last Super Bowl loss to the Giants. Only time will tell if McDaniels learned enough in his travels away from the Patriots; but the team still needs to consider hiring the best available coaches, not just the ones Bill Belichick trusts. 

So where does that leave us? Well, the weather looks nice in Boston this week, so there's always that to fall back on:

Or you could follow the Celtics, Stanley Cup champion Bruins, or wait for pitchers and catchers to report (and order some Popeye's fried chicken). I'll be looking at the Patriots biggest areas of need and which players they might target in free agency, trades, and even the draft. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: It might be hard to swallow, but the Patriots are now tied for the most Super Bowl losses by a franchise with four. 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Welker should have caught that one."

Keep the faith (if you have any left),

- Scott

PS.
15-4 :(
&
2-1 :(

PPS. Trivia answer:
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Tight end Ben Coates caught a four-yard touchdown pass from Drew Bledsoe in Super Bowl XXXI (1/26/1997).

3 Factors that Spell a Patriots Win

As game time approaches, I'm more and more confident that the Patriots will win. It goes without saying that in the NFL there are no guarantees, that any strange thing could happen to upset the predicted path. But even though this is a close match up, three things stand out that make me think the game will go New England's way:

Factor #1.  The Giants are a one-dimensional offensive team, and over the years the Patriots have proven very adept at stopping one-dimensional offenses.

Despite what I heard most of the week about New York's bruising running game, they were 32nd (i.e. dead fucking last) in the NFL with just 89.2 yards-per-game and only 3.5 yards-per-carry on the season. (Quite the turn-around from four years ago, when they ranked fourth with 134.2 YPG and third with 4.6 YPC.) They ran for 3.8 yards a rush in the November game against the Patriots, and there's no reason to think they'll do better with a healthy Brandon Spikes for (what we hope will be) the entire game.

The Giants' passing game is excellent; but the Patriots showed the ability to shut it down until the end of the fourth quarter. Prior to their two touchdown drives to end the game (which, by the way, totaled only 110 yards), New York had just one decent drive all day -- their first possession of the second half.

Not sure what Bill Belichick will have up his sleeve for the Super Bowl. But he won't have to worry about the Giants running attack, so it'll be a lot easier to focus on shutting down the pass.

Factor #2.  The Giants need to win the turnover battle, but Tom Brady is stingy in that department the game after a poor performance.

An underplayed fact about the first Pats/Giants game was that New York won the turnover battle 4-2, yet barely squeaked out a win with two touchdown drives at the end. The turnovers were legit, they forced them and could well have had at least one more interception. But if the teams are evenly matched, a 4-2 advantage would usually lead to an easier win, which it did not, indicating that the Giants aren't quite as good as the Patriots when all other things are equal.

But the bigger point is that New York is unlikely to win the turnover battle in the Super Bowl. Against the Ravens, Brady had his 15th career game with a QB rating under 60.0 (excluding the playoff loss to Baltimore in 2009, when they didn't play another game that season).

Here is Brady's average stat line the game after a sub-60.0 performance:

29 of 35, 236 yards, 2 TDs, 0.5 INTs, 95.3 rating.

Note that he tosses one interception about every two games. So the Giants might expect to get one pick, but probably shouldn't count on any more largess from TB12.

Given that the Patriots are not a fumbling team, that makes it difficult for the Giants to win the turnover battle unless they are extremely careful with the ball. And without a positive turnover ratio, they are in trouble. They built a +5 turnover margin in three playoff wins. And that includes +2 in the NFC Championship Game, where they needed overtime despite getting two gifts from Kyle Williams.

In contrast, the Patriots have two playoff wins despite a negative turnover margin in both games. So while the turnover margin is important to both teams, the Giants are the ones more dependent on posting a positive number in that column by 10:30 tonight.

Factor #3.  Defensive experimentation during the regular season should pay dividends today.

From a defensive standpoint, the Patriots tried more different things this year than any year since 2004 or 2005. Three-man fronts with single-gap responsibilities, four-man fronts with defensive ends dropping into coverage, the obvious two-way player moves (Julian Edelman and Matthew Slater), inside blitzes by James Ihedigbo and Jerod Mayo, secondary schemes that looked like zone but were really man, Devin McCourty's move to safety, Ihedigbo's move to linebacker, and most shocking of all, many more stunts and games up front than in past years.

After 16 games of experimentation, the Patriots coaching staff knows what works best against pass-first teams, so they should have a good idea of how to slow down the Giants. And if the first thing doesn't work, they have multiple different packages in their defensive arsenal. Manning is certainly playing well, but if he can't recognize the defense pre-snap, then it's advantage Patriots. And it's likely they'll confuse him at least 25% of the time.

One sub-point to this factor. In 2010, the Patriots beat the Colts 31-28. After the game, Patriots defenders said they faked zone coverage pre-snap and played man post-snap about 70% of the time.

However, the plan wasn't to confuse Peyton Manning, which they conceded was almost impossible. The plan was to confuse the wide receivers, and it worked like a charm. The Patriots picked off three Manning throws, the most against him since the 2003 playoffs (a span of nine games).

Given their success with that scheme, and Eli Manning's excellent play of late, it probably makes more sense to try to confuse Jake Ballard (2nd year), Victor Cruz (2nd year), and Hakeem Nicks (3rd year) rather than trying to confuse Manning.

That sub-point notwithstanding, the overall Patriots multiple defensive looks and schemes are an asset they did not possess in Super Bowl XLII, and one they hadn't fully developed in time for the November game.

Summary

So there you have it; the three factors that play to the Patriots favor in what looks like a relatively even matchup. If two of those three come to fruition this evening, then the Patriots should be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy once again. If not... well, the post-game bashing of Belichick should at least be entertaining :)

I hope you enjoyed your week everybody, and if it isn't a Patriots blowout, let's at least hope for a good game.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

15-3!

&

2-0!

Patriots-Giants Super Bowl XLVI Preview

It's finally here!! No, not the Super Bowl -- my pre-game breakdown of the Super Bowl! The game itself is a few days away, but I thought you'd like a little reading material to kill time between now and then. If you've seen enough articles with catchphrases like "revenge game," "can't spell 'elite' without 'Eli'," and "why are the Patriots favored," here is something to break up the monotony.

As is my standard practice in such situations, I will look back at the last games these teams played -- a 24-20 New York Giants victory on November 6, 2011 and a 17-14 Giants win in Super Bowl XLII four years ago. Then I'll consider what has changed and whether or not the Patriots can alter the outcome and get a win against these guys. Checking in on those games gives us a decent chance to determine how the Super Bowl will unfold, and I am including each team's best game plan to win it all.

1. A Giant Reversal

In 2007, the Giants entered Super Bowl XLII with a punishing ground game and basic-but-clutch quarterback play. In the four years since, they abandoned those principles entirely, entering this year's Super Bowl with an excellent passing attack and a terrible running game. Note the monumental change in these stats (with NFL rankings in parenthesis):

2007 Giants rushing:
4.6 yards-per-carry (3rd) and 134.2 yards-per-game (4th)

2011 Giants rushing:
3.5 yards-per-carry (32nd) and 89.2 yards-per-game (32nd)

2007 Giants passing:
6.2 yards-per-pass (27th), 197 yards-per-game (21st), 73.0 rating (24th)

2011 Giants passing:
8.4 yards-per-pass (3rd),  295.5 yards-per-game (5th), 92.9 rating (6th)

Note that their 2011 running game ranked dead last in the entire NFL, a stunning turn-around since 2007. Bruiser back Brandon Jacobs had his worst year as a starter in 2011, averaging just 3.7 yards a carry and only 40.8 yards a game. Speed back Ahmad Bradshaw didn't do much better, 3.9 yard a carry and 51.9 a game.

Not exactly what the Patriots faced four years ago. To borrow a phrase: "Rematch?! Don't talk about rematch! RE-match?!"

2. Patriots Additions and Subtractions

As always, there are injuries and roster changes, with new players preparing, some just hoping to play, and some who know they won't play.

Last November, linebacker Brandon Spikes had five tackles in the first 15:08, but then he got hurt and was done for the next six weeks. With him back in the lineup the past two games, the Patriots shut down two of the strongest running teams in the NFL (Ravens and Broncos). Not that they have to worry about the Giants' 32nd-ranked running game, but Spikes is also better against the pass than the backup linebackers.

Another addition is running back Kevin Faulk, a playoff-tested veteran -- reliable as a pass receiver and pass blocker. Rookie Stevan Ridley fumbled in the Broncos playoff game, and the Patriots left him off the game-day roster against the Ravens. With ball-security vital in the post-season, Ridley might find himself out in the cold again with Faulk taking his place in the Super Bowl.

And even though it might sound like a reach, corner Sterling Moore didn't play in the first game, and he showed himself to be a big-play guy against the Ravens in the AFC title game. Not that he shuts down receivers, but he plays better at corner than Devin McCourty, and Moore's skill allows the Patriots to move McCourty to safety, where he is much better.

On the downside, tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered a high-ankle sprain in the last playoff game, and will be limited, although he will most certainly play. He doesn't make a living with lateral movement, but he will be affected, which means the Patriots should have a game plan ready in case he isn't effective. They probably won't risk him as much on running plays either, so look for pass plays early in the game when Gronkowski is on the field.

And the one key player certain not to play is defensive lineman Andre Carter, who is out for the playoffs. He had three QB hits in the first game against New York, but he is on injured reserve and will not play on Sunday.

3. Giants Getting Healthy

The most obvious addition for the Giants is wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, who missed just one game this year -- his team's victory over the Patriots. He is an important part of their offense, averaging 5.7 catches and 93.5 yards per game since returning to the lineup. Their biggest deep threat, Nicks will be a dangerous match up for a Patriots secondary that struggled this year.

The Giants do not have any significant injuries. Bradshaw has been hobbled with a foot fracture, though he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday. And several of their vaunted defensive linemen are nursing small injuries; but you should expect them to play for sure and probably to be pretty effective.

The injury factor clearly goes to the Giants, who are nearly at full strength at just the right time.

4. Giants Game Plan For Victory

The Giants can't run the ball against the Patriots, so they should only do enough to keep the defense honest. But quarterback Eli Manning is playing at an extremely high level, so they should be able to pass. And with a full complement of receivers, he will attack the New England back-seven, a weak secondary and a linebacking corps that struggles against the pass.

On defense, everyone expects New York to get pressure with just the front four. But almost as many people expect the Patriots to use tight ends and running backs to keep Tom Brady upright. So the Giants will have to blitz some of the time -- if only to hurry up Brady's decision-making and keep the blockers guessing.

They have the linebackers to blitz. However, those 'backers are weak in pass coverage, so any blitzes will expose their secondary either short or deep. But it's a risk they have to take if they can't get pressure with the front four.

Most important is that the Giants have to win the turnover battle. They claimed a +2 turnover ratio in the regular season victory, but they only won the game by 4 points (and that on a very late touchdown drive). Every team wants to get more takeaways than their opponent, but that is essentially a requirement for the Giants to claim victory this Sunday.

(Note: game-film analyst Ron Jaworski counted four Manning passes that should have been intercepted in the NFC title game. Manning will have to protect the ball better in this game; if he tosses up that many potential picks, the Patriots have the secondary players to cash in those turnovers.

5. Patriots Game Plan For Victory

They lost in their last Super Bowl appearance because of bad offensive adjustments and coaching (it says so here, so it must be true). Therefore, in this game it is extremely important to take what the defense gives them. Even without Gronkowski, the Patriots have enough offensive weapons that the Giants can't take away everything.

So if New York jams receivers at the line and bull rushes Brady, he has to dump it off or call screens/draws to combat it. If they come out with six defensive backs in a deep cover-2, then audible to running plays. The short- and intermediate-routes in the middle of the field should be available to the Patriots and their multitude of slot/possession receivers, but if the Giants overload that area, Brady has to hit Deion Branch or Aaron Hernandez deep to make the defense back off.

This would be a much more favorable match-up with Gronkowski at full strength. But even if he doesn't play, that still leaves Branch, Hernandez, Wes Welker, and Danny Woodhead to attack the weakest part of the Giants defense -- their linebackers and half of their secondary.

On defense, the Patriots spent the year mixing together all kinds of different alignments, gap responsibilities, secondary groupings, and linebacker blitz schemes. And they probably spent the last month deciding which ones work best against deep-threat receivers, and given that they have the film, they most certainly know better than I do.

But if forced to guess which one they'd go with, I'd say a combination of McCourty and Chung at safety in a two-deep shell, hitting receivers at the line of scrimmage, and controlled bull-rushes up front to push the Giants line back into Manning. If they can't get pressure that way, look for them to use games and tricks up front to confuse New York's offensive line and get free pass rushers.

Manning is bad at escaping free blitzers (as most QBs are) and is very bad throwing off his back foot. And with a two-deep concept, the Giants will have to work their way down the field for points, something they didn't do very well for three-quarters of the game last November.

Quick Hits:

A. In 16 regular season games, the Giants were +7 in turnover margin, and they are +5 in just 3 post-season games.

B. In 16 regular season games, the Patriots were +17 in turnover margin, but they are minus-3 in 2 post-season games.

C. The Giants are 3-1 in the last four games against the Patriots, despite being outscored 82-89 (sort of the opposite of the Patriots-Ravens recent games).

D. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 34-15 the second (or third) time they play a team in the same season. (Trivia question: name the last year they were under .500 under those circumstances, answer below.)

E. Tom Brady had a 57.5 QB rating in the AFC Championship Game. Here are his average stats the week after he has a QB rating under 60.0 (excluding playoff loss to Ravens in January 2009):

29 of 35, 236 yards, 2 TDs, 0.5 INTs, 95.3 rating.

Summary

This is the hardest game to pick in quite some time. The Giants changes on offense make them better suited to exploit the Patriots defense. But the Patriots offense is well-designed to attack the weakest parts of the Giants defense, too. If Gronkowski was 100%, it would be easy to pick the Patriots because that would give them three match-up nightmares on the field at the same time (with Welker and Hernandez).

But without Gronkowski, this is a much closer game. It probably comes down to the turnover battle. And as stated before, Brady averages about 0.5 picks the week after he has a down game. So I'm going with the Patriots in a 2- or 4-point victory; but if you're planning to bet on the game, I recommend lottery tickets instead. This one is just too close to call.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.
15-3!
&
2-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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In 2006, the Patriots were 2-3 the second/third times they played teams.