In Sunday's tilt, the Patriots offensive game plan stood out. Coordinator Josh McDaniels called for short passes on a windy day, and the Patriots receivers were outstanding in yards-after-catch. In the first quarter alone, they had "short passes" that went for 23, 24, and 25 yards; with most of those yards gained after the catch. In contrast, the Dolphins tried deep throws, and some passes were badly off the mark, some were knocked away, and one was intercepted.
The defensive game plan repeated their earlier performance against rookie QB Ryan Tannehill. They blitzed from every angle, knowing from the previous game that he'd make critical mistakes under pressure. Tannehill might be fine in the long run, but his rookie numbers in two games against the Patriots will never impress anyone: 33 of 64 (51.5%), 421 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception, 10 sacks for 36 yards, and a 66.0 QB rating.
The Patriots defense dominated, holding Reggie Bush to 3.25 yards a carry, sacking the quarterback 7 times, getting the early interception, forcing a fumble, and knocking down 6 passes. Chandler Jones had his best game in months, with 7 tackles and 2 passes defended, and he held the edge well on running plays. His fellow linemen did a great job against the inside run, and the other outside rusher, Justin Francis got 3 sacks of his own. Unfortunately, starter Rob Ninkovich left the game with an injury; here's hoping it doesn't keep him out of the playoffs.
Linebacker Jerod Mayo applied good pressure on blitzes and was stout against the run. Additionally, he made a nice play to knock down a pass, a rare pass-coverage success. Dont'a Hightower is very up-and-down, but when the playoffs come, if Brandon Spikes returns, Hightower can return to his more natural right OLB position. Spikes did play some yesterday, and they need him back for the playoffs, especially if Ninkovich can't go.
In the secondary, Aqib Talib missed the entire game (after missing most of Jacksonville game last week), and Alfonzo Dennard was out, too, both of which are worrisome. The team's best secondary lineup is Talib and Dennard at corner along with Devin McCourty and Steve Gregory (or Patrick Chung) at safety. With Talib and Dennard out, McCourty shifts to corner and Kyle Arrington joins him there. McCourty is better than people give him credit, but Arrington plays much better against slot receivers.
The Patriots need either Talib or Dennard back for the playoffs. They can survive with McCourty at corner and Gregory/Chung at safety, but Arrington at the second corner spot is a time bomb against teams with two good outside receivers. And in the playoffs, there are plenty of those teams.
On offense, Rob Gronkowski returned and was effective, even if he played with only one arm. He grabbed 2 catches for 42 yards, and had a nice seam route for a touchdown. And even with the injured wing, he blocked better than Michael Hoomanawanui -- who was blown off the ball twice, blocked no one while a corner ran past him for a sack, and whiffed on two other blocks. Not sure why he's in the game, but if Gronkowski isn't fully healthy for the playoffs, the Patriots offense will be... how shall we say, limited.
As for the other receivers, Wes Welker had his routine great game: 8 catches, 94 yards, 1 touchdown, and several great blocks. Aaron Hernandez made nice yards after the catch, and the only other receiver who had a big day was running back Danny Woodhead. As my wife pointed out, Woodhead seems to be useful situationally. He can't pass block consistently, so he has to be used sparingly in that role. And against some teams, he tears it up running (San Francisco and Miami), while against others, he can't seem to get started at all (New York Jets and Houston Texans).
Woodhead had a very good game this week, but the rushing star was Stevan Ridley: 20 carries for 74 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Ridley ran hard, making multiple tacklers miss and gaining yards where none appeared to be there. Woodhead (3-18), Brandon Bolden (6-26), and Shane Vereen (8-38) contributed to a team total of 167 yards and 4.4 yards a carry.
You don't get numbers like that without good play from the offensive line, and the Patriots line did a great job against Miami. They gave up only one sack (and as mentioned, that was the tight end's fault), and Tom Brady was hit only twice all game. Dan Connolly and Sebastian Vollmer were especially active on sweeps and downfield on screen passes. And there was almost no inside pressure, so the very good Miami outside pass rush was simply pushed past the pocket to little effect.
Brady's best qualities came out in this game. His decision-making was nearly flawless, with audibles to a run when the Dolphins flooded the passing zones, and hot reads that beat the blitz. How well he controlled the game is belied by his ho-hum stat-line: 22 of 36, 284 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a 104.4 QB rating. But his focus was keen and he got the Patriots into the right look about 95% of the time, which is outstanding against a defense that knows him as well as the Dolphins.
Special teams did pretty well, although the windy day limited their opportunities. Punter Zoltan Mesko placed put 4 of his 5 punts inside the Miami 20 yard-line. Wes Welker had some nice punt returns, but the only Miami kickoff was downed in the end zone. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski didn't attempt a field goal, and with good reason, if you saw how badly the Miami attempt went wide-left in a gusting wind.
As mentioned before, the coaching on both sides of the ball was very good. The Patriots had a solid plan, and the players executed it flawlessly. You can't ask for much better than that.
So where does that leave us? Patriots are officially scheduled for the 4:30 game on Sunday, 1/13/13. (As tweeted earlier, I hope those twin "13s" aren't bad luck, @yourpatriots.) That gives the team two weeks to prepare, which is great, because Brandon Spikes, Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, and Aqib Talib (among others) could use the time to heal.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: Patriots top three tacklers were a lineman (Chandler Jones, 7), a cornerback (Kyle Arrington, 6), and a safety (Patrick Chung, 6). Care to guess the last time no linebacker was among the top three tacklers for the Patriots (answer below)?
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It's possible both lower seeded teams could win in the AFC next week. Houston and Baltimore are playing so poorly, they could easily get knocked off."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 12-4 & 0-0!
PPS. Trivia answer:
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On September 24, 2011, the Patriots visited Buffalo, and their top three tacklers were all cornerbacks: Devin McCourty (11), Leigh Bodden (7), and Kyle Arrington (6).
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