You don't seriously expect an in-depth analysis of this game, do you? I called Eric Northman to see if he can "glamour" me to make me forget the entire sordid evening. Here are some thoughts on how the Patriots won, how they could have lost, and where they are after two weeks.
1. Win the turnover battle 4-0 and you should win by a lot more than 3 points. But in the end, three Geno Smith INTs and a fumble by receiver Stephen Hill gave the Patriots the win; and it also gave them the ball a lot, so they had a chance to do this...
2. Go 4-18 on third-down conversions -- which is pathetic, closing in on Rod Rust territory. Perhaps this was the statistical counterweight to the 4-0 turnover margin, and a lot of it owed to poor second-down performance and dropped balls by young receivers. Oh, and speaking of that...
3. Rookie receiver Aaron Dobson dropped almost as many passes as Rex Ryan has pounds. He combined with Kenbrell Thompkins and James Develin for six catches, and though Thompkins shook off the first-game jitters of last week, he still had some missed routes and confusion between him and Brady.
The only veteran of the group, Julian Edelman, had 13 receptions all by himself, and even when double-teamed he found ways to get open and keep the chains moving. Not bad for a converted QB. Oh, and speaking of Edelman...
4. It's time to have Leon Washington return punts. Sure, Edelman is very good at it, technically the highest average in NFL history. But Edelman is just too valuable to the offense, at least until Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola come back from injuries. If Edelman goes down on a punt return, the passing game would be completely stagnant, so there is no reason to risk him on special teams. And speaking of special teams...
5. Is Stephen Gostkowski so fragile that the Pats have to waste a down to put the ball in the middle of the field for him? At the end of the second quarter, Brady could have taken a shot in the end zone, or tried for a first down or at least to get the ball closer. But since the ball rested on the right hashmark, and that apparently is Gostkowski's least favorite hashmark, Brady took the snap and knelt in the middle of the field.
And Gostkowski promptly rewarded the team by hooking the ball wide left, keeping the game closer than it should have been. Gostkowski was supposed to be a veteran you could depend on, but maybe not in a big spot. And speaking of veterans you could depend on...
6. Anyone else miss Kyle Love or Brandon Deaderick? Tommy Kelly is fine, but the lack of defensive line depth leaves him and Vince Wilfork out there for too many snaps. And in case you haven't noticed, the Patriots are getting gashed on inside running plays this year -- something that rarely happened last year.
They've given up an average of 4.0 yards a carry in both games so far this season, a number they allowed in only one-third of games last year -- 6 of 18, including playoffs. (Trivia Question: can you name the one team that ran for over 5 yards per carry against the Patriots last year? Answer below.) And speaking of the playoffs...
7. The Patriots as currently constructed are not a team that will do much damage in the playoffs. Fortunately for them, they don't play much of anyone until week 4, and with 10 days to prepare for Tampa Bay, they should be able to find a way to win that game. But they need Gronkowski back and Amendola has to stay healthy if the team expects to win anything of consequence this season. And speaking of winning...
8. The secondary won most every battle against the Jets. Kyle Arrington and Alfonzo Dennard just won't stop competing; they make the opposing receivers miserable with jams at the line and by always fighting for the ball in the air. Devin McCourty and Steve Gregory looked very good at safety, and Aqib Talib had two interceptions (Dennard had the other one). There isn't much depth back there, but for the time being, they were good enough to help you steal this game. And lastly, speaking of how the game was stolen...
9. Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Michael Buchanan, and Dont'a Hightower were in the backfield and all over the Jets QB. Even when they didn't sack him, they flushed him out of the pocket or made him throw early. Jones is becoming a beast, and with consistent pressure from his side, Ninkovich is seeing more single-blocking.
The coaches are also employing more stunts and games up front, something they shied away from over the years. But perhaps with a more seasoned veterans they feel more confident the players will adjust if the stunt is about to backfire.
So where does that leave us? 2-0 is better than any alternate record after two games, so don't worry, be happy. Ten days off means you have your Sunday free this week, so get out and enjoy what is supposed to be a nice weekend in New England.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: Brady has thrown for 473 yards this season, his lowest total in the first two games of any season since 2006 (383 yards). His two opponents in the first two games of 2006: the Buffalo Bills followed by the New York Jets.
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I never thought I'd say this, but it's time for the offense to catch up to the defense."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 2-0!
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PPS. Trivia Answer: the Buffalo Bills ran for 5.79 yards per carry (28 rushes for 162 yards) on November 11, 2012. (Note: give yourself a half-point if you thought it was the Indianapolis Colts, who averaged just a shade under, at 4.96 yards per carry [24-119].)
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