The Patriots took out the Bills in sloppy Foxboro yesterday, largely on the strength of LeGarrette Blount's 189 yards rushing and 145 yards on two kickoff returns. The win gave them the #2 seed in the AFC, and a first-round playoff bye. No game next week, but the team will certainly be making plans for their possible playoff foes on January 11 (8:15pm).
The game was messy, with five fumbles (four by the Patriots, all of which they recovered), lots of big plays when runners broke through arm tackles, and some ill-timed penalties that went in the Patriots favor. Division games against opponents with nothing to lose are difficult, and the Bills made a game of it for a while. But without their best QB, they didn't stand much of a chance.
How dominant was running back Blount in this game? He had more rushing yards (189) and more return yards (145) than Tom Brady had passing yards (122). Blount also had more touchdowns than Brady (2 to 1), and fewer turnovers (0 to 1). His two kickoff returns were electric and necessary to stop Buffalo momentum. He hit the holes hard in the running game, and when nothing was there he pushed the pile for a huge 7.9 yards per carry. Running back Stevan Ridley seems to have worked his way out of the doghouse, spelling Blount with 12 carries for 74 yards (6.2 ypc), although both he and Blount had fumbles in the game.
The offensive line did a terrific job, with special mention going to guard Logan Mankins and center Dan Connolly. Those yards didn't come just from great running, and these two specifically were making multiple blocks per play and getting downfield to continue the action and keep the play alive for more yards. It obviously helped a lot to have tackle Nate Solder in the lineup as, in addition to the great running, Brady was sacked only once.
Brady was fine, though not asked to do much but hand off. Receiver Julian Edelman was his main target when he did throw, catching 9 passes for 65 yards. Running back Shane Vereen was next in line, with 5 catches for 42 yards, and a touchdown. But just for the record, 14 completions probably won't get them far in the playoffs, and the Patriots not only need to be able to pass more (and better weather would help), but they need to spread the ball around to more players. Their targets are too predictable at the moment.
The interior of the defensive line played very well, getting consistent pressure on the QB and also stuffing most of the inside runs. Chris Jones had a sack and has had the most consistent year inside, while the rotation among other players worked really well. Joe Vellano came in and made a play immediately when Sealver Siliga hobbled off. Siliga ended up leading the team in tackles (9), while notching a sack and forcing a fumble.
The defensive ends left a lot to be desired, and were the main reason the Bills stayed in the game so long. Buffalo running backs and the Buffalo quarterback got outside of containment far too often, usually for big chunks of yardage. Chandler Jones got burned early and did better, but he wasn't consistent enough. They are usually more disciplined, so this should be viewed as an anomaly; but the D-line has to work better as a unit going forward.
The secondary got burned a few times, and frankly they were the beneficiaries of several dropped passes. Duron Harmon replaced the injured Devin McCourty, and it was a problem. Receivers got open on deep sideline patterns, where Harmon got there late. Also, injuries forced Kyle Arrington to cover on the outside, which is a problem as is he much better in the slot. Not a problem if they have a full compliment of secondary players in the playoffs, but something to watch if they do not.
Special teams were great. Not only did they have the Blount returns, but Stephen Gostkowski went 4-for-4 on field goals in that downpour. He also allowed only one kickoff return, for 28 yards -- the rest were into or through the end zone for touchbacks. And punter Ryan Allen was terrific, killing one punt inside the five yard line and sending another one there (but it was knocked into the end zone by the coverage player).
The coaching was terrific. Seeing the conditions, they obviously decided it was safer to run the ball and it worked perfectly. Buffalo gets the most pressure on the quarterback in the entire league, so the plan also played away from their defensive strength. And in a game this messy, the Patriots had only 4 penalties, which is usually attributed to good coaching.
So where does that leave us? 12-4 and a first-round playoff bye is a great place to be. The team has 12 days to get healthy and plan for their next opponent. The other team has yet to be determined, but the game will be on January 11 at 8:15pm, so don't forget to set your DVR!
Statistical Oddity of the Week: Since Bill Belichick arrived in New England, the Patriots are 14-0 when they play Buffalo for the second time in a season, with an average margin of victory of 18 points.
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The last two wins look impressive, but they don't tell you anything new about the Patriots. Baltimore's offense is awful, and the Pats always beat the Bills. Bring on the playoffs!"
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 12-4!
PPS. I predicted 12-4 before the season started ::patting self on back::
The Patriots squandered two long drives and came up short in a 24-20 loss at Miami. The result means the Patriots have to win one of their last two games to guarantee a division title and playoff berth. And it doesn't get any easier next week, traveling to Baltimore to take on a playoff-desperate Ravens team.
Not a lot of mystery in this one. The Pats started the game with a 16 play (83 yard) drive, and they had drives of 15 plays (81 yards) and 13 plays (61 yards) -- all for a net of 6 points. In the NFL you have to cash in your opportunities at a better clip than that, and the Dolphins took advantage of all their opportunities, leaving the Patriots just short at the end.
The overall offensive numbers look pretty good: 29 first downs, 9 of 17 (53%) on third-down conversions, more yards rushing than Miami, 364 yards in the air with only 1 sack (7 yards), only 1 penalty for 2 yards, only 1 turnover (on their last play of the game), and 3:00 advantage in time of possession. But Miami went 67% (2 of 3) in the red zone, while the Patriots were only 25% (1-4). And that one penalty was a killer pass interference call that helped the Dolphins score a touchdown.
Tom Brady was very good between the 10 yard lines, but not quite there when it came time to score. Though not all of it was his fault; the team averaged 5.8 yards per rush but stopped running once they got in close. If this is how the offense will play without Rob Gronkowski (who is out for the season, if you hadn't heard), especially in the red zone, it will be a short and unproductive trip to the playoffs -- if they even make it. Michael Hoomanawanui did his best Gronkowski imitation on a one-handed touchdown grab, but couldn't get separation when it mattered on the final drive.
The receivers were a two-headed monster, and that is not good news. Julian Edelman caught 13 passes for 139 yards and a touchdown, and Danny Amendola got 10 for 131 yards. But having just the two main receivers makes the Patriots much easier to defend, just as happened last year in the playoffs. They have to keep running back Shane Vereen involved in the passing game, and when they get their up-the-field receivers back (the injured Kembrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson), they need to pair them with Josh Boyce to stretch the field and open things up underneath.
The offensive line did okay for the first half, but once left tackle Nate Solder was injured, all hell broke loose. The team used a quick passing attack to keep the Dolphins pass rushers at bay for a while, but in the second half Brady was sacked once and hit seven times (after zeros on both of those stats in the first half). The team now has backups at too many offensive line positions, especially when they play teams with complex pass-rush schemes and potential blitz packages (like the Ravens this Sunday).
On defense it was more hot-and-cold. Linebacker Dont'a Hightower was a monster most of the game, stuffing runs with 9 tackles and very good pass coverage. Then he blew the one coverage that scored the winning touchdown, when a stop there would have led only to a tying field goal. And the team couldn't stop Miami on a fourth-and-five screen pass. Jamie Collins is improving each week, especially in the combo of pass/run stopping. But Brandon Spikes still appears to be injured, and Dane Fletcher, well, he committed the only Patriots penalty of the day, but you already read about that one.
The defensive line did continue to rotate in new players, to keep the rookies from crashing toward the finish line. Sealver Siliga got his first NFL sack, and Joe Vellano and Chandler Jones added one each. This is directly attributable to rotating players to keep the fresh, and is something the team will likely do even into the playoffs. They have too many young defensive linemen to depend on them for 60+ snaps each (though Jones and Rob Ninkovich are on the field most of the game).
Not sure what to say about the secondary. One drive they shut things down completely, the next drive they gave up chunks of yardage and touchdowns. Alfonzo Dennard didn't start; not sure if that was an injury or just because he's not playing as well as rookie Logan Ryan. But honestly, when you watch this game, you wouldn't know who is playing better -- they both seem to be uneven. Even solid Devin McCourty had a few missed tackles and a missed assignment in this one. Too inconsistent.
As for special teams, usually reliable Stephen Gostkowski missed a 48-yarder. And late in the game, those points would have made it so the Patriots only needed a field goal to win. He also booted a kickoff out of bounds, which was crucial to Miami's last touchdown drive to win the game. He's had an All-Pro year, but yesterday just wasn't his day.
The coaching wasn't terrible, but they went four-wide too late in the game. And they gave up on the running attack, which they should do out of the spread formation more. When their formation gives up that they are running, it's usually a loss waiting to happen. And they have to diversify their offense -- two more games to figure it out before the games start to count.
So where does that leave us? 10-4 is very good, but they had a chance to win the division and take the poll position for the #1 seed. Having failed this week, they have another tough game to try for the division win this Sunday. But the Ravens are not an easy target; although they play on Monday night, so it will be a short week for them.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots are 47-7 in December since the 2001 season. Four of those losses have come in Miami. (Trivia question: how many of the other three December losses can you name?... answer below.)
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If the offense can't become more than Edelman and Amendola, the Patriots won't even be a tough out in the playoffs."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 10-4!
PPS. Trivia Answer:
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The Patriots lost to the Tennessee Titans (24-7) and New York Jets (30-17) in December of 2002. They also lost to the San Francisco 49ers in December of 2012 (41-34).
Honestly, I don't believe what I just saw. For the third straight week, the Patriots spotted their opponent a halftime lead, then came back to win the game late. This time, four amazing things went their way, as they topped the 4-9 Cleveland Browns, 27-26. The victory puts the Patriots three games up in the AFC East with three games to go, and gives them a chance to sew up another division crown with a victory (or tie) against the Dolphins in Miami next Sunday.
This one looked like a loss at 26-14. But as a Denver fan reminded me a few weeks back, with Tom Brady as your quarterback, you can never count the team out. In the last two minutes, the Patriots got a late touchdown with a questionable 15-yard penalty against the Browns, recovered their first onside kick in 18 years, got a correctly called pass interference penalty in the end zone (and a 1-yard TD toss), and then survived a 57-yard field goal attempt by the Browns, that came up short. It's tough to win in the NFL, but this game should not have been this close.
The first half wasn't all bad; with the offense sputtering, the defense held the Browns to just six points, limiting the damage to keep the game in reach. And their comeback was not only improved offense, but defensive stops, too. And on the last two drives, Brady was 10 for 11 (not including the clock-stopping spike), for 93 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a QB rating of 141.5. And of course, kicker Stephen Gostkowski hit another 50-yarder in the fourth quarter and then successfully executed an onside kick for the team's first recovery in 18 years (also against the Browns, interestingly enough).
However, the win came at a cost; tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered what appeared to be a serious knee injury in the third quarter, and he did not return. (On the television broadcast, you could hear Gronkowski yell: "He broke my f***ing leg!" -- so it does not look good for a possible return this year.) And the Patriots offense was starting to jell with all their weapons healthy, even if they struggled in the first half of games. For context, the Pats ranked 22nd offensively without Gronkowski, and 2nd with him. The very definition of a difference-maker.
These last-second wins can be viewed one of three ways: (a) the Patriots are a team of destiny that keeps winning in amazing ways and has that magic something, (b) they possess the mental toughness never to quit and will be a tough out in the playoffs, or (c) they are a slow-starting team that won't overcome early deficits against better competition in the playoffs. Sadly, I put them between (b) and (c) -- a mentally tough team that won't go far in the post-season unless they can play better in the first half of games.
Here is how they can turn things in their favor as they march toward a likely playoff run:
1. Brady needs to improve on long throws. He overthrew two long passes in the first half, either of which would have turned the game the Patriots' way early on. He ended up with a nice stat line: 32 of 52 (61%), 481 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, and a 91.7 QB rating. But almost all of that came in the second half. And the reason he didn't get many chances in the first half was his own miscues.
2. Stop turning the ball over. They have turned the ball over in nine straight games, six of those in the first half of games, which helped put them in early holes. Thirteen games into the season, only twice have they not turned the ball over. (Trivia question: without looking, can you name either of those two games -- answer below).
3. Move running back Shane Vereen into the role formerly occupied by Aaron Hernandez. If Gronkowski is out for the year, then Vereen is the biggest potential matchup problem they have on offense. Brady targeted him 17 times, and Vereen hauled in 12 of them for 153 yards, mostly against overmatched linebackers. However, for better or worse, this means...
4. Bring back Stevan Ridley (8 rushes for 35 yards) and pair him with LeGarrette Blount (8 for 42) at running back. At this point, the team needs Vereen to diversify the offense, so they have to work Ridley back into the starting role (or at least a platoon with Blount). They need a decent running game, because the combo of Ridley and Vereen on the field creates mismatches and forces the other team to honor the run.
If Ridley fumbles at a crucial moment, so be it. But keeping him in the dog house is not longer a viable option. The team needs his skills if they plan to do anything in the playoffs.
5. Give left tackle Nate Solder help. Most of the pressure and sacks have been his player or the man opposite right tackle Will Svitek. You can forgive it with a lesser-rated player (which Svitek is), but Solder is having trouble with speed rushers who make it to the corner against him too often. Send a back into the flat and chip the pass rusher, or run some inside draw plays in Solder's direction -- something to stop defensive ends from teeing off to the outside of Solder.
6. Keep rotating the interior defensive linemen to help with the run defense. Yesterday they started Sealver Siliga (#71 on your scorecard) and rotated him in sporadically with Joe Vellano, Isaac Sopoaga and Chris Jones. Jones and Vellano are first year players, who appear to have hit the rookie wall.
The team should consider giving each of them an entire game off if they can before the end of the year. It can only help their run defense, which had been soundly thrashed three weeks in a row -- until yesterday, when they gave up only 108 yards and 4.3 yards per carry. This experiment should continue and be expanded, as January nears.
7. Stop moving Chandler Jones inside, and always have him and Rob Ninkovich (7 tackles, 1 sack, 2 tackles for loss, and 2 QB hits) either at the end of the D-line or dropping into pass coverage. Neither player has the size to hold up inside, and both excel at getting pressure from the outside, and so both should be kept where they work best. If the team needs to do something fancy on defense, have them drop into a short zone, where both have done okay work in pass coverage.
8. Find out what linebacker Dont'a Hightower ate yesterday, and feed it to all the linebackers. Hightower has taken some heat from me (and a lot more from the press), but yesterday he was much, much better. He notched eleven tackles and a QB hit, he was quicker to the ball carrier (meaning shorter running plays), and his pass coverage was very close in most cases.
9. Continue to give Jamie Collins reps and responsibility. Brandon Spikes must be injured, as his statistics and effectiveness have dropped off markedly. Collins is a decent running mate for Spikes, because Collins is better in pass coverage and has the speed to run sideline-to-sideline. Spikes is more of a film-study guesser (and he's quite good at that), blitzing into running holes or up the middle to the passer.
10. Get healthy in the secondary. Rookie Logan Ryan is playing well, but still gets overmatched when he takes on the better receivers. Aqib Talib is nursing a hip injury, though he gutted it out yesterday, mostly taking away the Browns best receiver. So if the team can get Alfonzo Dennard back full-time, they could have a dime package of Talib, Dennard, Arrington, Ryan, and safeties Steve Gregory and Devin McCourty.
However, if any of those guys are missing (or less than 90% healthy), the drop-off is significant. And in the playoffs, the really good quarterbacks will make you pay -- a lot more than journeyman Jason Campbell, who put up 391 yards and 116.8 QB rating against the injured secondary.
11. Find out what kicker Stephen Gostkowski is eating this season and feed it to the rest of the team. Honestly, if he isn't the Pro Bowl kicker, then who is?
12. The coaching staff needs to self-scout and figure out why they can't score in the first half. Some of it is turnovers, some is poor throws by Brady, some is bad initial game planning, some is getting out-coached by the opposing defensive staff, and some is just bad luck. But the Patriots purportedly self-scout better than any team out there. So prove it, and get going earlier in the game.
So where does that leave us? 10-3 and a three-game lead in the division with three weeks to go. Smells like another division crown, coming to a stadium near you, perhaps even next week. The Dolphins are fighting for their playoff lives, so the trip to Miami won't be easy. And if the Patriots start slow again, expect the Dolphins to put the pedal to the metal, instead of waiting around like the Browns did yesterday.
Statistical oddity of the week: With three games to go, Brady has been sacked for 228 yards this year, already more than his previous worst (219).
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Browns fans will whine, but the Patriots lost to the Jets and Panthers on controversial calls that went against them. Cleveland lost because they played not-to-lose in the middle of the game. Period."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 10-3!
PPS. Trivia answer: neither the Falcons or Jets (first game) took the ball away from the Patriots.
For the second straight week, the Patriots spotted their opponent a double-digit lead and came back strong to win a 34-31 decision. Today it was the downtrodden Texans, and the win puts the Patriots at 9-3, three full games ahead of 6-6 Miami for the division lead with just four games to play. There are too many variables to clinch a division crown next week against the Cleveland Browns (in Foxboro), so their first chance will be the following game against the Dolphins.
After two prime-time games against the iron of their schedule, it was inevitable that the Patriots would have a letdown against the 2-9 Texans. That's one of the reasons I predicted before the season that the Pats would drop this game; and against a full-power Texans team they most certainly would have. But they hung in against these shell-of-their-former-selves Texans and once again their halftime adjustments were just about perfect -- leading to five consecutive scoring drives and a clock-killing possession.
The offensive line was under fire, with the Texans defense mixing in a nice array of blitzes and decent pressure with just their front four. But even in the face of that, the O-line gave up just one sack (six yards), and five QB hits. They also did a great job blocking on screen passes and on the two rushing touchdowns. Nate Solder gave up the one sack, but he was left alone to block two defenders, so it was probably running back Shane Vereen's fault for not picking up the extra man.
As for the running backs, here was the most important statistic: 0 fumbles. Stevan Ridley was a healthy scratch, replaced by LeGarrette Blount (12 carries, 44 yards, 1 touchdown), who looked like a college back with both hands on the ball at all times. Even blocking back James Develin kept both arms on it while taking four punishing hits at the goal line and eventually scoring. Vereen didn't carry the ball quite so carefully, but he ran well (10 for 38), and was instrumental in the passing game (5 catches, 37 yards, 1 touchdown). The team only averaged 3.3 yards a carry, but the lack of fumbles was more important than anything.
Quarterback Tom Brady had a mediocre first half: an interception, two poorly thrown short passes, and one miss on a long one that would have made it a 3-point game at the half. But after halftime he was terrific -- 18 of 23 (78%), 263 yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions, and a 128.8 QB rating. His touch passes and his long passes were much more accurate. And the windows into which he was throwing were tiny all game and got smaller as the game went on, making his second-half performance all the more impressive.
And the receivers were excellent, rounding into form now that they have an almost fully healthy crew. Julian Edelman (9 catches for 101 yards) continues to be the best former college QB playing receiver in recent memory. Seven of those nine catches went for first downs, and the combination of him and Danny Amendola (5 for 54) are a close approximation of Wes Welker. As mentioned, Vereen is vital to the passing game these days.
Two other factors of importance with the receivers:
First, the unstoppable force that is Rob Gronkowski is back. He had 6 catches for 127 yards and a touchdown, and that was against constant double- (and sometimes triple-) teaming. He also throws off blockers like they are annoying gnats, and if he stays healthy, he will be a nightmare matchup for every team in the playoffs.
Secondly, the Patriots now have two straight weeks with at least four receivers heavily involved in the offense (last week it was five, with Kenbrell Thompkins in the mix, too). This is much more diversity than the had the last few years as they worked toward the playoffs, and makes them vastly more difficult to defend. So keep an eye on how many receivers they have over 3 catches each week; that will tell you if Brady is able to spread the ball around, which will make them much more dangerous on offense.
The front seven on defense had a very bad game. On the defensive line, Chandler Jones (4 tackles) and Rob Ninkovich (4 tackles, 2 QB hits) had good days. They didn't have the stats, but held up well against outside runs and got decent push. In fact, they played so well that they moved inside a few times to replace Joe Vellano and Chris Jones, who both appear to be hitting the "rookie wall" at the same time. It's not all their fault, as the team didn't keep enough D-line depth to replace injured starters Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelley.
The linebackers were also complicit in the number of gashing inside runs. Brandon Spikes blitzed inside when the runs went outside, and chose the wrong gap on far too many plays. He ended up with five tackles, but when plays went away from him he looked disinterested, something I never thought I'd see from such an intense player. Perhaps he is injured. And Dont'a Hightower and Spikes ran into the same hole on plays, leaving the running backs to run free, and both of them are liabilities in pass coverage.
Rookie Jamie Collins has seen more playing time recently; he even started this week. And he is already their best pass-coverage linebacker. And Dane Fletcher has gone from special-teams contributor to a one of the better linebackers against pass and run, which is saying a lot given the draft position and talent level of his linebacking mates. It also says a lot about the state of the linebackers; depth and pass-coverage are big problems.
The secondary did a very good job, especially given that #1 corner Aqib Talib is playing injured and #2 corner Alfonzo Dennard was out with his injury. I haven't given rookie Logan Ryan enough praise -- he had another interception today (3rd of the season), 2 passes defended, and 3 tackles. He hasn't been beaten deep that I can remember, and without his play, the injuries would have cost the Patriots the last two games. But instead of the Patriots fighting for a playoff berth at 7-5, they are cruising toward a division crown at 9-3.
Additionally, safety play has been very good of late. Both Steve Gregory and Devin McCourty played deep against Peyton Manning and the Broncos, holding them to 4.1 yards per attempt. This week, Gregory moved up on running plays, and helped stuff them at important junctures of the second half. And McCourty conversely played deep, helping keep things in front of him so the Patriots couldn't lose the game on big plays. Complimentary play, with them doing what they need to do to win each week, and it worked perfectly the last two games.
As for special teams, they had another excellent week. Stephen Gostkowski hit two field goals of 50+ yards in the second half, including the game winner at the end. He missed a 55-yarder into a light wind in the first half, but when the money was on the line he hit the important kicks and booted kickoffs too long to be returned (which was big after the team gave up a 50-yard return in the first half). Punter Ryan Allen had a good average, and allowed only one return for six yards.
The coaching staff once again was outdone in the first half, but made the necessary adjustments to win in the second half. Among those adjustments, more quick passes, some screen passes, and more blitzes on defense. Although Josh McDaniels had his weekly "long pass on a third-and-short" -- but it didn't end up costing the team.
So where does that leave us? 9-3 and sitting in the second playoff spot in the AFC, at the moment. The Patriots incredible run continues, with them now guaranteed a winning record for the 13th straight season. (Trivia question #1: name the team that holds the record of 20 straight winning seasons... answer below.) Time to put this letdown game behind them and focus on the last four games. Another playoff bye is at hand, if they take care of business.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots won the last two games 34-31, the third time under Bill Belichick they won two consecutive games by the exact same score. (Trivia Question #2, name either of the other times they did so... answer below.)
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Thank goodness they've got four games to figure out how not to fall behind early."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 9-3!
PPS. Trivia answer #1:
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The Dallas Cowboys had winning seasons every year from 1966 - 1985.
PPPS. Trivia answer #2: In 2007, the Patriots beat the New York Jets and San Diego Chargers 38-14 in weeks 1 & 2, and in 2010, the Patriots beat the Baltimore Ravens and San Diego Chargers 23-20 in weeks 6 & 7.
