Not a lot of mystery in this one. The Pats started the game with a 16 play (83 yard) drive, and they had drives of 15 plays (81 yards) and 13 plays (61 yards) -- all for a net of 6 points. In the NFL you have to cash in your opportunities at a better clip than that, and the Dolphins took advantage of all their opportunities, leaving the Patriots just short at the end.
The overall offensive numbers look pretty good: 29 first downs, 9 of 17 (53%) on third-down conversions, more yards rushing than Miami, 364 yards in the air with only 1 sack (7 yards), only 1 penalty for 2 yards, only 1 turnover (on their last play of the game), and 3:00 advantage in time of possession. But Miami went 67% (2 of 3) in the red zone, while the Patriots were only 25% (1-4). And that one penalty was a killer pass interference call that helped the Dolphins score a touchdown.
Tom Brady was very good between the 10 yard lines, but not quite there when it came time to score. Though not all of it was his fault; the team averaged 5.8 yards per rush but stopped running once they got in close. If this is how the offense will play without Rob Gronkowski (who is out for the season, if you hadn't heard), especially in the red zone, it will be a short and unproductive trip to the playoffs -- if they even make it. Michael Hoomanawanui did his best Gronkowski imitation on a one-handed touchdown grab, but couldn't get separation when it mattered on the final drive.
The receivers were a two-headed monster, and that is not good news. Julian Edelman caught 13 passes for 139 yards and a touchdown, and Danny Amendola got 10 for 131 yards. But having just the two main receivers makes the Patriots much easier to defend, just as happened last year in the playoffs. They have to keep running back Shane Vereen involved in the passing game, and when they get their up-the-field receivers back (the injured Kembrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson), they need to pair them with Josh Boyce to stretch the field and open things up underneath.
The offensive line did okay for the first half, but once left tackle Nate Solder was injured, all hell broke loose. The team used a quick passing attack to keep the Dolphins pass rushers at bay for a while, but in the second half Brady was sacked once and hit seven times (after zeros on both of those stats in the first half). The team now has backups at too many offensive line positions, especially when they play teams with complex pass-rush schemes and potential blitz packages (like the Ravens this Sunday).
On defense it was more hot-and-cold. Linebacker Dont'a Hightower was a monster most of the game, stuffing runs with 9 tackles and very good pass coverage. Then he blew the one coverage that scored the winning touchdown, when a stop there would have led only to a tying field goal. And the team couldn't stop Miami on a fourth-and-five screen pass. Jamie Collins is improving each week, especially in the combo of pass/run stopping. But Brandon Spikes still appears to be injured, and Dane Fletcher, well, he committed the only Patriots penalty of the day, but you already read about that one.
The defensive line did continue to rotate in new players, to keep the rookies from crashing toward the finish line. Sealver Siliga got his first NFL sack, and Joe Vellano and Chandler Jones added one each. This is directly attributable to rotating players to keep the fresh, and is something the team will likely do even into the playoffs. They have too many young defensive linemen to depend on them for 60+ snaps each (though Jones and Rob Ninkovich are on the field most of the game).
Not sure what to say about the secondary. One drive they shut things down completely, the next drive they gave up chunks of yardage and touchdowns. Alfonzo Dennard didn't start; not sure if that was an injury or just because he's not playing as well as rookie Logan Ryan. But honestly, when you watch this game, you wouldn't know who is playing better -- they both seem to be uneven. Even solid Devin McCourty had a few missed tackles and a missed assignment in this one. Too inconsistent.
As for special teams, usually reliable Stephen Gostkowski missed a 48-yarder. And late in the game, those points would have made it so the Patriots only needed a field goal to win. He also booted a kickoff out of bounds, which was crucial to Miami's last touchdown drive to win the game. He's had an All-Pro year, but yesterday just wasn't his day.
The coaching wasn't terrible, but they went four-wide too late in the game. And they gave up on the running attack, which they should do out of the spread formation more. When their formation gives up that they are running, it's usually a loss waiting to happen. And they have to diversify their offense -- two more games to figure it out before the games start to count.
So where does that leave us? 10-4 is very good, but they had a chance to win the division and take the poll position for the #1 seed. Having failed this week, they have another tough game to try for the division win this Sunday. But the Ravens are not an easy target; although they play on Monday night, so it will be a short week for them.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots are 47-7 in December since the 2001 season. Four of those losses have come in Miami. (Trivia question: how many of the other three December losses can you name?... answer below.)
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If the offense can't become more than Edelman and Amendola, the Patriots won't even be a tough out in the playoffs."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 10-4!
PPS. Trivia Answer:
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The Patriots lost to the Tennessee Titans (24-7) and New York Jets (30-17) in December of 2002. They also lost to the San Francisco 49ers in December of 2012 (41-34).
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