Pats Handle Dolphins 35-17, Control AFC East

In a game that resembled the Patriots last two contests, this one was no contest: a 35-17 victory over the overwhelmed Dolphins. The win puts New England at 9-2, and gives them a three-game lead in the AFC East with five games to play. Next up is a trip to Buffalo, in what is a must-win if the 6-5 Bills expect to contend for a division crown.

As with the last two games, there just wasn't a lot to learn in this one. The Patriots controlled the game from the start, and if not for two turnovers, it would have been a complete laugher, just like the wins over Denver and Oakland. But there were some interesting wrinkles in this one, so here goes...

The running backs have gone from a five-headed monster to just two heads: Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead. Lewis ran for 112 yards, Burkhead for 50, and the rest of the RBs had 13 total. And it's the third week in a row. Against the Raiders it was Lewis/Burkhead 66 yards, James White 13, and versus the Broncos it was Lewis/Burkhead 91, White 7.

Given that the ratio holds in the passing game, too, it appears they have settled on a rotation. The big question is Lewis' health. He's had only one injury with the Patriots, but it was a huge one; an ACL tear that cost him an entire year. He is smaller, so it probably makes sense to spell him with James White to keep him healthy and fresh for the stretch run.

Speaking of White, the team did something interesting with him this week. When he was assigned blitz pickup, he moved up three yards so he could take on defenders before they got a running start. White struggled picking up the pass rush against Oakland, so this probably makes sense. However, it means he can't be used as a runner out of the shotgun, which limits his effectiveness. I'll keep an eye on that the next few weeks; it's a crutch he's never needed before, and it makes him more one-dimensional.

As for the offense in general, apparently Miami defensive end Ndamukong Suh is right; the only way to get Tom Brady to make mistakes is to hit him, a lot. He was sacked once and hit eight other times, and he did make some mistakes (a bad interception, over and under throwing players a few times). Although in fairness, he made some great throws into tight coverage, especially near the goal line (one reason he ended up with four TDs).

Brady was hit so many times mostly because the offensive line didn't hold up particularly well. Yesterday they lost LaAdrian Waddle to injury (and he himself was playing because of an injury to another starter), and on the next play Cameron Fleming gave up a sack that forced a punt. Replacement center Ted Karras snapped the ball early, resulting in a fumble return for touchdown by Miami.

Usually offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia can make almost any situation work. But it appears there is a limit to magic; and perhaps three missing starters is just too much to bear. Especially when left tackle Nate Solder is having a down year, although he played better yesterday.

In the defensive secondary, the Pats employed an interesting twist; they had their third corner, Jonathan Jones, cover the Dolphins #1 receiver with safety help. Jones followed Jarvis Landry around all day, mostly tackling him after catches, which is one reason he led the team with nine tackles.

Historically, this strategy has involved having the #2 corner cover the other team's best receiver with safety help. So this appears to be either a shot at #2 corner Malcolm Butler, an acknowledgement that Landry just isn't that dangerous (or that his QB isn't), or an expression of confidence that they can slow down #1 receivers with even their third corner. Whatever the case, it was interesting to watch that defense deployed.

At linebacker, Elandon Roberts looks bigger than last year but plays just as fast. When he guesses pass/run correctly, he can be a real force. But when he is wrong, or when he chooses the wrong place to help, he looks completely lost. Yesterday he looked great: 4 tackles, 2 sacks, and 2 QB hits.

The biggest problem at linebacker is the team literally has no one who is even above average in pass coverage. Longtime Jets linebacker David Harris has played better lately, but he's good against the run and junk in coverage. Same goes for Kyle Van Noy (well... he's a little better in pass coverage, as long as it's a pretty short pass).

The only team that can exploit this weakness for the remainder of the regular season is the Steelers, and there's no guarantee they will bother -- they like to establish the run, while the Patriots get out to a 14- or 21-point lead. It's just what they do.

The point is, the Patriots are likely to end up with a great record and good playoff positioning. But once they get to the post-season, there will be multiple teams that can exploit poor pass coverage by linebackers. So we might not know if they are vulnerable until it's too late. Stay tuned; I'll do my best to watch for signs of improvement here.

So where does that leave us? Riding high at 9-2, and rooting for a Green Bay victory over Pittsburgh tonight that would put us atop the AFC alone. Next week in Buffalo would look like a tough game on the face of it. But historically the Patriots have played Buffalo tougher there than at Gillette Stadium. So expect a close game early that turns in the Patriots favor after the half.

Non-Brady MVP: Trey Flowers, who notched 2 sacks (for 16 yards), 2 QB hits, and 4 tackles. Same statline as Roberts, but he was more consistent throughout the game. (I almost gave it to Stephon Gilmore, but he let Duron Harmon take his second interception, so he only got credit for one.)

Statistical Oddity: For the third straight year, the Patriots have more than one player with a quarterback rating of over the century mark: Brady is at 111.7 and Brian Hoyer is at 118.1. The previous two years it was Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo. (Trivia question: prior to 2015, can you name the last year that the Pats could make this boast, and which players were involved? Answer below.)

Water-cooler Wisdom: "Honestly, what would big mouth Ndamukong Suh know about beating Tom Brady? He's 1-6 against him all-time."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 9-2!

PPS. Trivia Answer:

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In 2011, both Tom Brady (105.6) and Brian Hoyer (118.7) topped 100 in QB rating for the Patriots. Ironical, isn't it :)

Patriots Continue To Roll, 33-8 Over The Raiders

The Patriots Crazy Train keeps on rolling along, notching a 33-8 rout of the Raiders yesterday in Mexico City. The win keeps them tied with 8-2 Pittsburgh for the first playoff spot in the AFC, and coupled with Buffalo's loss, they now have a three-game lead in the division. Next up the Dolphins come north to play on Sunday.

This will be one of the shortest entries in quite some time. There just wasn't much to learn from this game. If you like shorter write-ups, please send your thanks to Jack Del Rio, head coach of the Raiders. He just won't change his defense, and Tom Brady roasts him almost every time they face each other. (There are details in this entry from a few years ago, scroll down to "Factor #4": link.)

And not only does Brady destroy Del Rio defenses, no one is better in international games than the G.O.A.T. (Trivia Question: name the only game Brady has lost to a Del Rio defense; answer below.) Here are his numbers in three games outside of the U.S. (two in London):

76 of 104 (73%), 951 yards, 10 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a 125.1 QB rating. He is 3-0 in those games, with an aggregate score of 113-22. Maybe the Pats should move to London; Brady would retire the MVP trophy if they played half their games across the pond.

Another player who excels in international games is kicker Stephen Gostkowski. He has never missed a kick in that situation; here are his numbers in three games outside the U.S.:

14 of 14 successful extra points, and 5 of 5 successful field goals, including a franchise record 62-yard boot yesterday. He also booted the ball through the end zone on six of his seven kickoffs in the game. And just for symmetry, he kicked one short enough for Oakland to return it, and they still ended up on their 25 yard line.

Not much else to say. Every time Oakland had a chance to get back in the game, their receivers dropped easy passes, or they committed an untimely penalty or turnover.

Once again, a disorganized team was outclassed by the Pats in a game outside the country. Not sure why other teams still can't figure out how to handle it. But it effectively gives the Patriots a second Bye week, and that's probably just fine with the team.

So where does that leave us? 8-2 and sitting pretty for a first-round playoff bye. Because of their loss to Kansas City, they really have a one-game lead on them. And by virtue of their better conference record, they hold the tie-breaker over the 7-3 Jaguars, too.

Non-Brady MVP: Receiver Brandin Cooks, who caught six passes for 143 yards and a 64-yard touchdown.

Statistical Oddity: Someone might want to notify Del Rio that Cooks has his number almost as much as Brady does. He has played the Raiders in each of the last two years. His receiving totals:

• 6 catches for 143 yards, and a 64-yard touchdown
• 6 catches for 149 yards, and a 98-yard touchdown 

Water-Cooler Wisdom: "Suddenly 13-3 doesn't look unreasonable."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 8-2!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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This should have been an easy one; it was the game referenced in the link in this article, the AFC Championship Game in January 2014.

Pats Coast To 41-16 Win Over Denver

In case you went to bed at the half, the Patriots finished off the Broncos last night, 41-16. The win ran their record to 7-2, tied atop the AFC with the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are two games clear in the AFC East now, with the division crown looking more inevitable all the time. Next week the Pats take on the reeling Raiders in Mexico City.

The story line today will be how the Patriots special teams totally outplayed Denver's, which led to an easy victory. But that misses the point; special teams was a mismatch to be sure, but the Patriots improving defense and diverse offense outplayed Denver's units as well. All that said, here are some of the special teams highlights...

The Pats kickoff team executed its usual strategy of kicking high/short and covering well. This forced returns (because the ball wasn't in the end zone) and allowed the coverage team to keep the opponent inside the 25 yard line. But when the Broncos tried it, they gave up a 103-yard touchdown to Dion Lewis. And frankly, there's no way they should try that -- it isn't their game, and Lewis had a huge return in the Patriots previous game, too.

Denver also fumbled the Patriots first punt of the night, turning the ball back to the Pats who promptly scored a touchdown. And Pats running back Rex Burkhead blocked another punt. But the last special teams disaster was probably the sweetest of all: a five-yard penalty for too many men on the field, which negated a Pats punt and gave them a first down instead. Naturally the Patriots scored a touchdown on that drive.

On offense the Pats started out by exploiting their running backs in mismatches with Denver linebackers. But by the end of the game, the leading receivers were wideouts and tight end Rob Gronkowski.

The final stats were very impressive; quarterback Tom Brady completed passes to nine different receivers, with eight of them catching multiple passes. No team can stop that kind of diversified attack, because no team has enough talent across the board to do it. Denver needed heavy pressure on Brady but had only one sack and four QB hits.

Brady finished 25 of 34 (74%), 266 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 125.4 QB rating. He is currently the highest rated quarterback by Pro Football Focus, a site that breaks down the All-22 video of every play in every game. Brady's longest pass was 27 yards, but the short- to medium-passes over the middle were open early and often. The team never bothered to attack the outside corners, the strength of the Broncos defense.

The running game was effective in spurts, with Lewis (14 carries for 55 yards, and 1 TD) and Burkhead (10 of 36) carrying the bulk of the load. Most impressive was the blocking of the offensive line and especially fullback James Develin. He blasted linebackers multiple times, and never once in the game whiffed entirely on a block. A stellar game for an under-appreciated player.

The O-line deserves a lot of credit for keeping Brady clean and blocking well on running plays. But you should temper your enthusiasm a bit; the lack of pressure on Brady was largely due to quick-release passes. He did stand in the pocket a few times, but he mostly avoided pressure by hitting receivers on-time and in rhythm to keep the Denver rush at bay.

The Pats secondary didn't always look great. Corner Malcolm Butler gave up a few big plays to Denver's Emmanuel Sanders, with whom he was matched up one-on-one all night. It was a tough draw for him, but he battled all game long and made more plays later in the game to stop third-down conversions and force Broncos kicks.

Fellow corner Stephon Gilmore returned from a concussion and played much better. Of course, the defensive scheme was mostly man-coverage, which is his preferred way to play. So it won't be clear how much progress he's made in learning the defense until they play more zone. One other note on the defense: they had six passes defended by six different players. So they are playing very good team defense, at just the right time of year.

At linebacker, David Harris is actually playing better, which is astounding. He was invisible early in the year, but he made plays against both the run and the pass last night. Kyle Van Noy led the team with five tackles, and Elandon Roberts even played well in the absence of Cassius Marsh. I also noticed lineman Trey Flowers dropping into coverage again on a few plays; makes me wonder if they are moving him into Rob Ninkovich's former role as lineman/linebacker.

Speaking of the defensive line, the Pats don't have any supremely talented players there, but they have depth, depth, and more depth. Malcom Brown was out with an injury, but Alan Branch improved his play to make up for it. And they have semi-interchangeable parts all across the line: Lawrence Guy, Branch, Adam Butler, Deatrich Wise, Jr., Flowers, and newly added Ricky Jean Francois. They just keep coming in waves, mostly the same type of player, but fresh every new set of downs.

The coaching was solid if no spectacular. The Patriots obviously used the bye week to put in a few wrinkles with running backs in the passing game, which worked perfectly. But mostly it was a game of making Denver settle for field goals (four of them) while the Pats scored touchdowns.

Not to make light of the defensive coaching -- the Pats have given up 17 or fewer points in each of their last five games. But most any defense would look good against Denver's current offense. It's time for the Broncos to remake their offense, starting with getting a real QB under center.

So where does that leave us? 7-2 isn't bad at all, even better is the two-game cushion in the AFC East. The Patriots play the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a few weeks; that game could determine home field throughout the AFC playoffs. (That's right, I said "Playoffs!")

Non-Brady MVP: Running back Rex Burkhead had some nifty runs, caught a few passes (including a touchdown), and blocked a punt. A pretty good day.

Statistical Oddity: The AFC South is the only NFL division with a first-place tie. The oddity is that the 6-3 Jaguars have a +92 point differential for the season, while the 6-3 Titans are -8 on the year. That's an impressive 100-point difference between two teams with identical records.

And the -8 Titans are technically in first place because they beat the Jags earlier in the year. Tell me *that* isn't an oddity!

Weekly Water-Cooler Wisdom: "With Bennett in the fold, and Burkhead growing into his role, the offense looks unstoppable."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 7-2!