The Patriots took care of business, beating the listless Jets 38-3 to secure the #2 playoff seed and a week off before their next game. The win was predictable; Tom Brady is now 14-2 against the Jets in regular-season home games. In two weeks, the Patriots will host the Texans, Ravens, or Chargers at Gillette Stadium.
There was very little to learn from the Jets game. Reports were that some New York players skipped meetings this week because they were sure the coach was going to be fired. They had checked out, and it showed in the game.
However, three trends about this Patriots team have emerged since mid-season.
1. Defensive improvement
Starting in week eight, the Pats gave up 68 points in two games to Tennessee and Miami (34ppg), and 78 points in the other seven games total (11ppg). And those seven games included tilts with the potent Packers and Steelers offensive teams, the Steelers game in Pittsburgh.
The secondary is playing much better, with rookie JC Jackson taking over the second corner position and linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts improving more than you could possible expect. Also, discipline within the scheme along the front four/five is much better than earlier in the year.
They still give up lots of yards, but are making teams settle for field goals and turning the ball over much more often. There won't be any bad offenses in the playoffs, so it'll be interesting to see if the Steelers game was poor play by Pittsburgh or better play by the Patriots defense.
2. Running the football
Excepting the losses to Tennessee and Miami, the Patriots averaged 153 rushing yards a game in the last nine contests. The offensive line has been dominant of late. And fullback James Develin has been a devastating blocker in multiple games.
It's true that this is partly out of necessity, because the passing attack has been mediocre. But it's also true that other teams knew the Patriots were going to run, and they still couldn't slow them down.
3. Diverse offensive attack
Over the years, the Patriots have succeed in the playoffs more often when they used a lot of receivers and runners on offense. That kind of diverse attack always served the well, because teams usually key on your best performers in the playoffs.
To that point, in four of their last five games, three or more rushers had double-digit yards on the ground. And in two of those games, they had five such rushers. It makes it tough to key on one player, and also means the Patriots can bring in fresh legs over an over to attack defenders who have been on the field all game long.
And in the last six games, the Pats had at least five players with multiple receptions in five of them. Again, this just makes it tough to key on one guy, giving opposing defenses fits and lots of players to cover.
In the past, teams would often double-team Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. And despite Gronk's lesser production this year, teams leave him singled-up at their own peril. But even if they only double Edelman, that leaves Gronk, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett (who has been coming on), James White, Rex Burkhead, and Cordarrelle Patterson in one-on-one coverage.
4. Quick hits
A. The Patriots have four non-offensive touchdowns this year, two on special teams and two on defense.
B. Despite a lot of consternation about the number of Patriots penalties, they are third-best in the league, committing less than 50 yards worth of penalties per game.
C. The kickoff returns are a real concern. The Jets average start after a kickoff was the 32 yard-line; not good.
D. The last time the Patriots clinched a playoff bye the last weekend of the season with an 11-5 record was the 2001 season. IIRC, they won the Super Bowl that year :D
Where does that leave us. We can all relax next weekend, as the next Patriots opponent takes a beating Wild Card Weekend. If you want to root for something, hope the Chargers win and the #6 seed loses (the Colts, Titans, and Steelers, depending on tonight's game). That would put division rival LA in Kansas City, which is always a tough draw in the playoffs.
Biggest ongoing concern: It's inconsistency. In 2019, penalties, poor kick coverage, missed field goals, bad defensive calls, and poor tackling have all cost the team games. It's amazing they have a playoff bye at all. But now that they do, they need to shore up those issues, because they aren't more talented than the other teams in the post-season.
Statistical oddity: The Pats gave up 34 points in one game against Miami, and 41 total points in their other five AFC East tilts.
Water-cooler wisdom: "After all the hand-wringing, the Pats are two wins away from the Super Bowl yet again."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 11-5 & 0-0!
The Patriots took care of business, defeating their "little brother" Bills 24-12 in a game not quite that competitive. The win gave the Patriots the AFC East crown, and combined with Houston's loss at Philly, the Pats will be the #2 playoff seed if they win next week. Speaking of which, the Jets come in with their young QB, hoping to play spoiler to the Pats playoff hopes.
I hope you didn't get too depressed the last few weeks, when the local 11 lost back-to-back heartbreaking games. It appeared they were out of the running for a playoff Bye, but the win today changed all that. It's unclear why people always assume other teams will win-out to knock the Patriots down, but once again, the Pats are kings of the AFC East, and have that week off in their sights.
They did it yesterday with the running game. Excepting the kneel-downs to finish the game, the Patriots rushed 45 times for 275 yards (6.1ypc), with rookie Sony Michel leading the way (18 for 116 and 6.4ypc) and Cordarrelle Patterson (4 for 66, and an eye-popping 16.5ypc!). The O-line plowed through the Buffalo defense, opening big holes and reaching the second and third levels to take out defenders. It was the most yards rushing in any Tom Brady start.
Brady himself was pedestrian, as were the receivers. Julian Edelman had two dropped passes, and Rob Gronkowski had one go through his hands that ended up being intercepted. On the day, Brady was 13 of 24 for 126 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs (all that despite being sacked just once and hit only twice).
The biggest problem in the passing game was that only five players were targeted. As stated in the past, Patriots post-season success often comes down to having a lot of receivers involved in the passing attack. It's too easy to shut them down if the other team can key on one or two receivers -- so they have to diversify their passing attack before the playoffs start.
Lost in all the angst of the last few weeks was how well the defense played against the Steelers. In four of the last five weeks, they have given up yards but held teams once they got inside the 20, giving up an average of just 13 points each to the Jets, Vikings, Steelers, and Bills.
They still aren't as reliable as when former D-coordinator Matt Patricia was here, but new defensive signal-caller Brian Flores has improved as the year progressed. And believe it or not, it's mostly about their discipline. They are playing their assignments better; keeping Buffalo's running QB in check on Sunday.
Corners Jason McCourty and JC Jackson are playing better, as is safety Devin McCourty. The linebackers are still suspect, but the D-line looked a lot better against Buffalo. Trey Flowers is by far the best of their front seven, and he's been helped by better play from Lawrence Guy and occasional good plays from Malcom Brown.
On special teams, the team had another blocked punt (Matthew Slater), but they also had really bad kickoff returns. In the third quarter, the Pats had three kickoff returns, and started at the 15, the 12, and the 12 yard lines. Not good, folks, not good.
Where does that leave us? Patriots won the division for the tenth year in a row. (Trivia question: what was the last season when an AFC East team won more games than the Patriots? Bonus question: can you name the team? Answers below.) The team is relatively healthy, and they if they beat the Jets next week, they will be home Wild Card Weekend. Note: Tom Brady is 13-2 at home as a starter against the NYJ in regular season play.
Biggest ongoing concern: It's the stagnant passing offense. With Josh Gordon gone for the year, they have to find another option to take pressure off Gronkowski, Edelman, and the running backs. My suggestion is to use Chris Hogan, but either he or Phillip Dorsett needs to step up if the Pats expect to make much noise in the playoffs.
Non-Brady MVP: Running back Sony Michel, who now has more 100-yard games (4) than all other rookie running backs under Bill Belichick (3). The team is also 4-0 when Michel runs for at least 100 yards.
Statistical oddity: The Patriots tenth consecutive division title is the first time in NFL history a team has won at least ten straight. The only other team in major American sports history to do so was the the Atlanta Braves, who won 14 in a row
Water-cooler wisdom: "Two weeks ago, everything went against the Pats. Yesterday, everything went for them. Call me when that changes."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 10-5!
PPS. Trivia answers:
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In the 2000 season, the Miami Dolphins were 11-5 and the Patriots the opposite, finishing 5-11. The two seasons since then when the Patriots didn't win the division (2002 and 2008), they finished tied with the Jets and Dolphins, respectively, and lost the crown on tiebreakers.
The Patriots lost a big one yesterday, bowing 34-33 in a stunner at Miami. The loss kept the Phins alive for the division title. And in a week when the Steelers and Texans lost, the Patriots could have separated from the pack -- but now it's just a mess for the playoff seedings. Next up is a trip to Pittsburgh, which is crucial to the Pats playoff-bye hopes (more on that in a sec).
There were a lot of positives and some negatives in this game. But let's deal with the elephant in the room first -- who the hell cost the Patriots the game?! Miami scored on a 69-yard pass on the last play of the game. But before that play, there were plenty of bad plays and missed opportunities that led to the defeat. Here is my list of the top five, from the least objectionable to the most.
5. The missed extra point
Stephen Gostkowski missed an extra point after the first touchdown of the game. These points often come back to haunt teams. And in this case, that extra point would have forced Miami to hit their own extra point after the final TD to win. But given how likely Miami is to convert that extra point, this miss probably didn't decide it.
4. The missed field goal
Gostkowski pushed this one right, just like the missed extra point, and it obviously hurt a lot more than the extra point miss. If they had these points, the final touchdown would not have cost them the game.
If the Pats had these points, they would have led by eight. So even with the final miracle play, the Dolphins would have to make a two-point conversion just to tie -- no guarantee on that. So missing this field goal was huge. (Note: combine that with the missed extra point, and the Pats would have led by nine -- an insurmountable lead at the end.)
3. The BS final play
If you didn't see it, with seven seconds left, Miami was 69 yards away with no timeouts. They threw an underneath pass, which was lateralled twice to the left sideline and run all the way in for a touchdown. All the while, their second-best defender all year, Stephon Gilmore, jogged along down the midline out of the play, and at the end Rob Gronkowski was the last man and he was easily out-maneuvered by the Dolphins running back.
The play was horrible for a couple of reasons. Gilmore needed to get into the play. The Patriots fastest defender and best tackler, Devin McCourty, was on the sideline for the final play. And Gronkowski shouldn't have been in because this was not a hail-mary situation, so they didn't need tall players to knock down an endzone pass.
Bad, bad, and more bad.
2. Poor game-management at the end
With 1:50 left in the game, the Patriots didn't try for a game-clinching touchdown, instead running three times and then kicking a field goal to go up by five points. I have no argument with running to keep the clock moving and run as much time as they could. But once they got to fourth-down, things started to break down.
Their best strategy, IMO, would have been to try for the touchdown on fourth down. If they scored, the game would have been effectively over. If they failed, Miami would have gotten the ball a their own four yard-line with 16-seconds left. Sure, they'd only need a field goal to win, but the odds against them are astronomical!
However, the Pats kicked the field goal, going up 33-28. Fine.
But once they did that, they should have had Gostkowski kick the ball through the end zone. Instead, they had him squib-kick it short, forcing a time-consuming return. But just risking the return was a mistake, giving the Dolphins to score.
And once they didn't score, it led to the play mentioned earlier :(
1. The sack to end the second quarter
Tom Brady had the biggest gaffe of the game. The Pats had third-and-two at the Miami two yard-line with 14-seconds left in the first half. New England called one more play, a pass into the end zone. If it failed, the Pats would kick the field goal and go into the half with a 30-21 lead.
On a play like this, there are only two things Brady can't do: turn over the ball, or take a sack. Losing the ball is always a problem, and taking a sack means the clock will run out without a chance for a field goal.
But instead of throwing after his first read, Brady double-clutched and tried to look for another target -- and of course, he was sacked. The Pats could do nothing but watch helplessly as the clock wound toward triple-zeros and the half came to an end.
The reason this is worse than either Gostkowski miss is that it was a mental error rather than a physical one. No player is perfect, but it was startling to see Brady take that sack. Frankly it's the kind of thing other NFL teams have to put up with on a regular basis. But the Patriots are always so well prepared for situational football it was stunning to watch.
That's my breakdown of the breakdowns in this game. The Patriots should have had seven additional points, making that last play irrelevant. Instead, their missed opportunities gave the Dolphins a chance to beat them at the end. The Patriots missed their chances, Miami didn't. Period.
If the Pats had won, Monday we'd be talking about improved play from Gronkowski and Edelman, problems exposed on defense, and impressive special-teams coaching (they blocked two Miami punts). But instead we'll be talking about missed opportunities and a lost chance to further their playoff hopes and dreams.
Where that leaves us: Believe it or not, the Patriots are still currently the second AFC playoff seed. If they win out, they will likely rest the first weekend of the playoffs, because they hold the tie-breaker over Houston and Kansas City. Next week at Pittsburgh is the only real challenge to them running the table. They finish with two home games against non-playoff opponents (Bills and Jets).
Biggest ongoing concern: Uncharacteristically undisciplined play. They still commit too many penalties (5 for 30 yards, but really 6 for 45 because of offsetting penalties on one play), the coaching is poor in spots, and they gave up way too many big plays against Miami.
All of these things are uncharacteristic of Patriots teams in general.
Non-Brady MVP: Albert McClellan gets it this week because he blocked two Dolphins punts, which should have been enough to win the game, but unfortunately...
Statistical Oddity: This is the first time in over six years the Patriots led a game near the end, only to lose on the last play of the game. (Trivia question: can you name previous the team and the situation? Answer below.)
Water-cooler wisdom: "Next week against Pittsburgh is the whole thing now. If they win that game, they are probably still the #2 seed after everything they've been through."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 9-4!
PPS. Trivia answer:
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The Ravens beat New England 31-30 on a field goal at the final gun. Incidentally, this broke the Patriots streak of 148 games without falling below a .500 record.
