There was very little to learn from the Jets game. Reports were that some New York players skipped meetings this week because they were sure the coach was going to be fired. They had checked out, and it showed in the game.
However, three trends about this Patriots team have emerged since mid-season.
1. Defensive improvement
Starting in week eight, the Pats gave up 68 points in two games to Tennessee and Miami (34ppg), and 78 points in the other seven games total (11ppg). And those seven games included tilts with the potent Packers and Steelers offensive teams, the Steelers game in Pittsburgh.
The secondary is playing much better, with rookie JC Jackson taking over the second corner position and linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts improving more than you could possible expect. Also, discipline within the scheme along the front four/five is much better than earlier in the year.
They still give up lots of yards, but are making teams settle for field goals and turning the ball over much more often. There won't be any bad offenses in the playoffs, so it'll be interesting to see if the Steelers game was poor play by Pittsburgh or better play by the Patriots defense.
2. Running the football
Excepting the losses to Tennessee and Miami, the Patriots averaged 153 rushing yards a game in the last nine contests. The offensive line has been dominant of late. And fullback James Develin has been a devastating blocker in multiple games.
It's true that this is partly out of necessity, because the passing attack has been mediocre. But it's also true that other teams knew the Patriots were going to run, and they still couldn't slow them down.
3. Diverse offensive attack
Over the years, the Patriots have succeed in the playoffs more often when they used a lot of receivers and runners on offense. That kind of diverse attack always served the well, because teams usually key on your best performers in the playoffs.
To that point, in four of their last five games, three or more rushers had double-digit yards on the ground. And in two of those games, they had five such rushers. It makes it tough to key on one player, and also means the Patriots can bring in fresh legs over an over to attack defenders who have been on the field all game long.
And in the last six games, the Pats had at least five players with multiple receptions in five of them. Again, this just makes it tough to key on one guy, giving opposing defenses fits and lots of players to cover.
In the past, teams would often double-team Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. And despite Gronk's lesser production this year, teams leave him singled-up at their own peril. But even if they only double Edelman, that leaves Gronk, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett (who has been coming on), James White, Rex Burkhead, and Cordarrelle Patterson in one-on-one coverage.
4. Quick hits
A. The Patriots have four non-offensive touchdowns this year, two on special teams and two on defense.
B. Despite a lot of consternation about the number of Patriots penalties, they are third-best in the league, committing less than 50 yards worth of penalties per game.
C. The kickoff returns are a real concern. The Jets average start after a kickoff was the 32 yard-line; not good.
D. The last time the Patriots clinched a playoff bye the last weekend of the season with an 11-5 record was the 2001 season. IIRC, they won the Super Bowl that year :D
Where does that leave us. We can all relax next weekend, as the next Patriots opponent takes a beating Wild Card Weekend. If you want to root for something, hope the Chargers win and the #6 seed loses (the Colts, Titans, and Steelers, depending on tonight's game). That would put division rival LA in Kansas City, which is always a tough draw in the playoffs.
Biggest ongoing concern: It's inconsistency. In 2019, penalties, poor kick coverage, missed field goals, bad defensive calls, and poor tackling have all cost the team games. It's amazing they have a playoff bye at all. But now that they do, they need to shore up those issues, because they aren't more talented than the other teams in the post-season.
Statistical oddity: The Pats gave up 34 points in one game against Miami, and 41 total points in their other five AFC East tilts.
Water-cooler wisdom: "After all the hand-wringing, the Pats are two wins away from the Super Bowl yet again."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 11-5 & 0-0!
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