This one was a laugher from the get-go. The Pats scored touchdowns on their first five possessions, and started 27 of their 34 first-half plays in Jaguars's territory. They converted 8-of-10 third downs and gained over 100 more yards both on the ground (181 to 80) and through the air (290 to 173). It was as thorough a beating as you'll see in the NFL.
Quarterback Mac Jones played great (22 of 30, 227 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs), the main running backs averaged 5 yards a carry and had 4 touchdowns, there were five receivers with multiple catches, the defense confused and feasted on a young quarterback (with 60% of his O-line starters out with COVID), and the coaches never gave the Jaguars a chance to get back into the game.
What else would you expect? All week the predictions were that this would be a get-right game for New England. The Jaguars are awful, they already fired their head coach, and they were ravaged by COVID for the game. So it shouldn't be a surprise that the Patriots steamrolled them.
But what was a surprise? There are four things that surprised me, all of which could have an impact on the team as they head toward the post-season. So rather than salivating over a game they were supposed to win, let's take a look at some developments that could help/hurt as they move into the playoffs.
First, practice squad wide receiver Kristian Wilkerson. He was elevated to the team and played in place of healthy scratch N'Keal Harry. And he played very well, hauling in four passes for 42 yards and two touchdowns. (For perspective, Harry has twice caught two touchdowns in entire seasons -- and that is the best total of his career!)
Why is this important? Because the Patriots desperately need another passing game threat. The previous week, wideout Nelson Agholor was out and Kendrick Bourne was limited after returning from a concussion. So when the Bills blanketed Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry, the Pats needed N'Keal Harry to step up and make plays.
But Harry didn't. He had one catch on six targets, dropped an easy first-down conversion, and then popped the next pass up in the air for an interception. When the playoffs start, the Patriots could not count on Harry. And if any of the receivers were hurt, they'd be in trouble against good teams.
However, if Wilkerson can at least be a threat in the post-season, chances are he'll see the other team's fourth- or fifth-best corners. If the Patriots had to depend on Harry they'd be in trouble. But at least Wilkerson showed something, something other teams can either work to defend or the Patriots can take advantage of.
I've written often in the past that the Patriots offense works best when they have a good slot receiver, a good tight end, and at least four total threats in the passing game. They don't really have a great slot guy. But if Wilkerson can do better than Harry, they would have four real arial threats.
Second, the reps at running back. Once again, Damien Harris was limited with a hamstring injury. He had just nine carries for 35 yards, though he did score two touchdowns and ran well and with power. It's possible they are going easy on him, not wanting to risk an injury before the playoffs.
Rhamondre Stevenson played very well in relief of Harris, going for 107 yards on 19 carries and two touchdowns of his own. And it's great the team has a backup of his capabilities.
But Harris' hammy is concerning, because they have almost no running back depth. And as the games get colder and the conditions worsen, it was believed they would become a run-heavy team -- to control the clock and wear down other teams, as well as to take pressure off their rookie QB in his first post-season.
If Harris can't shoulder the load, that puts a ton of pressure on Stevenson. The drop-off in talent from him to Brandon Bolden is massive. J.J. Taylor returned from the COVID list two games ago but hasn't seen the field since. So the thinness at running back could well be a concern going forward.
Third, J.C. Jackson's admission. During the game broadcast, the announcers stated that J.C. Jackson confessed to not being properly focused the previous week against Buffalo. This is surprising and refreshing, as athletes rarely admit such things but it was nice to see Jackson take ownership of why he didn't play well against the Bills.
Realizing that he had missed two big INT chances in that game, Jackson studied additional film and vowed to lock things down this week. Which he did. He had a nice interception and nearly had another. And he also tied for the team lead with four tackles.
Why is this important? The Patriots will need Jackson at the top of his game if they expect to make any noise in the playoffs. With Stephon Gilmore gone, if Jackson can't lock down his man, it would force too many players to adjust on defense -- and that is bound to leave more holes in the run and pass D.
Maybe it wasn't the admission that was important, but his response. Watch him closely next week. He'll likely take on one of the top two receivers, and it'll be important to see if he can lock them down or at least reduce their impact on the game.
And fourth, yet another blocked kick. I know, a missed extra point in a 40-point victory sort of falls through the cracks. But once the playoffs begin, there won't be any patsies on the schedule. And this team will have to struggle to make it through every game.
In close games, a missed assignment on a kick can be disastrous. The blocked punt/touchdown probably cost them any realistic chance in the Colts game. And bear in mind that they are likely looking at road playoff games, where crowd noise makes communication on kicking plays even more difficult.
This is their fourth blocked kick of the season, three punts and that extra point. They've needed to shore up their special teams all year, but haven't done it yet. So when the playoffs come, keep your fingers crossed when the Pats drop into punt or field goal formations.
Where does that leave us? 10-6 and in the playoffs is great. Buffalo came from behind to take care of business, so the division remains out of the Patriots grasp for now. Believe it or not the Patriots could end up with the first seed or the last seed, depending on the results next week.
It's good to be in the tournament. But they need to take care of business in Miami next week so they aren't stuck playing Kansas City or Tennessee in the first round. Those would be really bad matchups for them.
Biggest on-going concern. For this week it's probably their overall futility in Miami. Even under BB they are just 9-11 in South Florida. In fact they lost there just last year, in a game they needed to stay in the playoff hunt. So for this week, tighten things up and get a win in Miami.
Non-QB MVP: Wide receiver Kendrick Bourne, who caught five of six passes thrown his way for 15.2 yards a catch and also ran twice for 17 yards. He also took some tough hits along the way.
Statistical oddity: Twice this season the Patriots have put up at least 50 points in a game. The 31 other teams have only done it *once* combined. (Trivia question: Which team notched the other game of 50-or-more points? Hint: it happened very recently. Answer below.)
Bonus oddity: Bill Belichick has never lost a game in Foxboro against a rookie quarterback. After topping the Jags and Trevor Lawrence, he is 15-0 in such games.
Water-cooler wisdom: "I bet even Kristian Wilkerson didn't have himself in his fantasy league."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 10-6!
PPS. Trivia answer:
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The Dallas Cowboys put up 56 points against Washington just last week.
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The Dallas Cowboys put up 56 points against Washington just last week.
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