Patriots 2022 Off-season, Part 1

Hello all,

The Patriots were quiet in free agency this year, especially contrasted with their blockbuster 2021 haul. (I think they spent $250 million on free agents last year.) There were some losses, some new faces, some players who decided to return, and a few still in unsigned limbo.

And despite what you've heard, they haven't gotten worse. Other division teams have traded for splashy receivers (Tyreek Hill) or signed defensive studs (Von Miller). But the Patriots are better than last year, even when you consider the free agents who left.

I won't go over every signing, there's plenty online if you want details on all of it. What I will do is look at the totality of additions and subtractions with an eye toward how they might change how the team will be constructed and how things will look different when the season beings.

Offense

Comings & Goings:

The team traded offensive lineman Shaq Mason and let center Ted Karras go, so they are left with three good players and one mediocre one (Isaiah Wynn) to fill four positions. Michael Onwenu was a backup last year, but was a top-rated O-linemen in Pro Football Focus' rankings, so he should be fine.

At running back, the departure of Brandon Bolden is easily offset by the return of James White. White's injury was a huge loss last year, especially as an outlet receiver for rookie quarterback Mac Jones. If White stays healthy, that group won't miss a beat. However, they don't have anyone to replace him if he does go down for any significant amount of time.

(BTW, full back Jakob Johnson's loss is not a loss. He didn't play well last year, and can likely be replaced by a back with good enough hands to be a potential threat out of the backfield -- something missing since James Develin left a few years back.)

Perhaps their highest level addition was at receiver, where longtime Dolphins starter DeVonte Parker was acquired in a trade. He is a big body who will fight for every throw and every yard after the catch, and he's a good blocker in the running game. He allows the rest of the receivers to slide down a notch, putting them in better position against lesser corners.

How It All Fits Together:

With White coming back, expect the Pats to run more four- and five-receiver sets. Bolden was decent in relief of White, but he will never be as good as "sweet feet." Going four-wide with White in the backfield is the Patriots best alignment, so expect to see a lot of it this season.

Jakobi Meyers is currently unsigned, but he's a restricted free agent who I believe will be back. That would give them Meyers, Parker, and Nelson Agholor at receiver, with Hunter Henry at tight end and White in the backfield.

If they can protect Jones as they did in the second half of 2021, they should be in excellent shape on offense.

Draft Expectations:

With an eye toward protecting the QB, watch for the Pats to take one or two offensive linemen in this weekend's draft. In fact, they could grab one with their first-round pick. Aside from that, they could take a faster wideout if the right one is available.

Defense

Comings & Goings:

J.C. Jackson's departure to the LA Chargers is easily the biggest loss of the off-season. He wasn't a shutdown corner, but he was by far the team's best, and they will miss him. They brought in corners Terrance Mitchell and local hero Malcolm Butler, along with safety Jabrill Peppers.

They traded off linebacker Chase Winovich and added Mack Wilson (from Cleveland). And at the moment, Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins are unsigned -- and honestly I don't see either of them coming back.

How It All Fits Together:

Given how the AFC has changed this off-season, with multiple teams adding huge offensive talent (Denver, Miami, Las Vegas, Cleveland... the list goes on and on), here is what I expect from the Patriots.

They will face multiple mobile quarterbacks this year: Buffalo and Miami twice, Cleveland (Deshaun Watson), Green Bay, Baltimore, and Arizona. Additionally, if they expect to go anywhere in the playoffs, they'll likely have to face Denver (Russell Wilson) and/or Kansas City (Patrick Mahomes).

Given all that, I expect the team will play vastly more zone defense than man-to-man. Their recent runs of success were all based on man-defense. But it requires that your defenders turn their backs to the quarterback, and as we saw with Josh Allen specifically, they will kill you with their legs.

The key to playing zone is getting to the quarterback quickly. So I expect a 4-3-4 (or even a 4-2-5) alignment, with two huge dudes inside and two speed-burners on the edge who will be empowered to race to the QB. Their depth at corner, rather than being top-heavy on shutdown guys, also indicates this change.

To pull that off they need speed at linebacker, and frankly they don't have much. Matt Judon and Josh Uche were their quickest LBs last year, with Hightower and Ja'Whaun Bentley the slower bangers inside.

Draft Expectations:

To make zone work, they'll need more speed at linebacker, so I expect they will draft one or two of them this weekend. They will likely go after corners, too, but those could come undrafted, as quantity will be important. (Quality is great, but I'd expect them to work the LB angle for quality and just throw bodies at corner.)

Special Teams

Comings & Goings:

Gone are return man Gunner Olszewski, coverage guy Brandon King, and special teamer Brandon Bolden. Free agent signee WR Ty Montgomery could return kicks, but it'll be tough to replace King in coverage. In my opinion he was as good as Matthew Slater and Justin Bethel, even though Slater gets the accolades.

How It All Fits Together:

I expect special teams to be better simply because last year was Cameron Achord's first as a special teams coordinator, so he should improve. Remember, for all the praise Joe Judge got as a special teams coach here, he wasn't good his first year. He replaced Scott O'Brien that year and the drop-off was noticeable.

So just as Judge improved, expect improvement from Achord, too. Hell, if he can just keep Nick Folk on-task and get Jake Bailey back to his rookie punting averages the team would be much improved right there!

Draft Expectations:

The team has too many holes on O and D to spend any draft capital on special teams.

Coaching

Comings & Goings:

Josh McDaniels took a head coaching job in Las Vegas, and he took wide receivers coach Mick Lombardi and offensive line coach Carmen Bricillo with him.

There are also rumors that longtime running backs coach Ivan Fears will retire, although nothing official has come out yet.

In response to the massive loss of McDaniels, the Patriots brought back Joe Judge to run help on offense and declined to name an OC. They also don't have an official DC for the second consecutive year.

How It All Fits Together:

Honestly, it doesn't. Judge has worked very little with offensive players, and reportedly when he did, players called him out for not knowing as much as they did. If Fears leaves, they will be woefully under-experienced on the offensive coaching side of things.

On defense, it's like Bill Belichick doesn't want to promote the obvious leader, Jerod Mayo, because two of his sons are in line for the DC position. If either of the kids has shown anything, they'd have the job. So the fact that they don't have the title shows you they aren't progressing they way they need to.

Remember that in the past when OCs or DCs left the team often struggled the next year. The only exception I can think of is when Matt Patricia left and Brian Flores got more out of the defense and they won the Super Bowl.

But when Eric Mangini left, downturn. When Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis left, it took years to rebuild their knowledge base. So don't expect much in the way of great coaching to overcome a talent gap -- not this year, at least.

Summary

If I'm being forthright, I'd say the Patriots are using 2022 to build for 2023 and beyond. They see the landscape and have to know that their talent can't match up with Kansas City or Buffalo. And if the Wilson signing in Denver works well it's another team they'd be chasing.

So this feels like another year of the build-up to true contender status. Jones will improve, the offensive talent is better, and special teams should be better. But the defense is in transition, having lost Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson in one calendar year. The move to zone-D won't be seamless, but it's their best move given the teams they face.

It's possible they will be better than last year and end up with a worse record. But I don't see them contending for a Super Bowl berth this season, not unless there are injuries to opposing QBs and the post-season schedule falls just right for them.

It'll be entertaining, it always is. But I'm not reserving a room in Glendale.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

Patriots 2021 Regular Season Awards

After the previous week's abrupt end to the playoff "run," this past weekend's action made it clear the Patriots simply didn't belong with the AFC heavy hitters.

However, that doesn't mean 2021 was without value or accomplishments. Here are my thoughts on the best players, most improved players, and best newcomers in all three phases of the game.

Offense

Most Valuable Offensive Player: Damien Harris

Honorable Mention: Mac Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Trent Brown

Harris and Stevenson split being the featured back, depending mostly on Harris' health. But despite missing time, Harris ran for 929 yards and a 4.6ypc average, notching 15 touchdowns and a total of 59 first downs (4 receiving).

The rookie Stevenson played in 12 games and totaled 606 yards 4.6ypc (exactly the average same as Harris), and got 36 first downs of his own. The impressive thing is that he picked up the blocking schemes well enough to get on the field, and his running was impressive once he got playing time.

Jones took over the most difficult position on the field as a rookie and was by-and-large impressive. His command of the offense was better than veteran Cam Newton's, he shrugged off bad plays well enough to keep his team in most games, and he had the second-highest completion percentage of any rookie in NFL history with 67.6%. (Trivia question: which rookie QB had the highest rate at 67.8%? Answer below.)

As for Brown, the offensive line was a mess when he was injured and was between adequate and dominant when he returned. He wasn't perfect and had a few untimely penalties. But with a rookie QB learning the NFL ropes, the last thing you need is a leaky offensive line to compound his troubles.

Most Improved Offensive Player: Jakobi Meyers

Honorable Mention: Brandon Bolden and Michael Onwenu

Meyers was Newton's only reliable target most of last year, yet even with the free-agent offensive weapons (see the next category), Jakobi improved plenty. He went from 59 catches and 729 yards to 83 catches and 866. He had his first pro touchdown catch, after an NFL-record drought to start his career, and was responsible for 42 first downs. The only place he fell back was as a passer, since neither of his two completions went for touchdowns this year :D

Bolden stepped in for James White, who was injured, and had his most rushing yards (226) and first downs (12) since 2013. He showed that with enough playing time he could be a decent fill-in for White, though never up to White's standards.

Onwenu doubled his starts from 8 to 16 this year, and he was one of Pro Football Focus' (PFF) highest rated offensive linemen, even though he rarely got a mention in broadcasts.

Offensive Newcomer of the Year: Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry

Honorable Mention: Jones and Stevenson

Bourne became the Patriots lone deep threat, catching 55 passes for 800 yards (14.6ypc), scoring 5 touchdowns, and totaling 10 plays of over 20 yards and 5 plays over 40. He also ran 12 times for an average of over 10ypc, and he made nary a mistake in route-running or blocking.

Henry was the best red zone receiving threat the team had most of the year. He got a first down 34 times on 50 catches and scored 9 touchdowns through the air, far and away the best of any receiver. In fact, the rest of the team had just 13 receiving touchdowns, which shows you how important Henry was.

Jones and Stevenson for the reasons mentioned earlier.

Defense

Most Valuable Defensive Player: J. C. Jackson

Honorable Mention: Mat Judon

Jackson has more interceptions than any other NFL player since he entered the league. An undrafted player, he is poised for a huge payday as he is a free agent this year. His impact on the defense looks like Henry's on offense: 8 interceptions versus 13 for the rest of the squad.

He was also the team's 10th leading tackler. And given that the team traded Stephon Gilmore and Jonathan Jones was injured halfway through the year, Jackson's value to the defense was immense.

Judon was running away with this award early in the year. He had 12.5 sacks through 13 games and the team was 9-4 and atop the AFC. But he didn't record a sack after that, missed the Jaguars tilt, and the thinking here is that he was injured. In the Buffalo playoff game he couldn't move laterally to keep up with receivers or quarterback Josh Allen, so something was up.

Most Improved Defensive Player: Kyle Dugger

Honorable Mention: Adrian Phillips and Ja'Whaun Bentley

Dugger started 7 games last year and 14 this year, missing three only because of injury. He had more tackles (78 vs 61), more interceptions (4 vs 0), and way more positive impact for the team. His ability to cover in zone and still come up to tackle much bigger backs and tight ends is impressive.

How unknown was he before this year? I've been misspelling his name in this blog and never even realized it (my apologies).

Phillips' tackle numbers were roughly the same as last year, but his had twice as many interceptions (from 2 to 4) and over twice as many passes defended (from 4 to 9). He understood the defense immediately and with him and Dugger in place the Patriots could be well setup should veteran Devin McCourty retire.

Bentley gets a mention because he led the team in tackles. But he will always be a liability in pass coverage, so unlikely to win defensive MVP any time soon.

Defensive Newcomer of the Year: Judon

Honorable Mention: Christian Barmore

Judon for all the reasons listed above, and for bringing an attitude and edge to the defense. There are lots of cerebral guys on the Patriots, but you still need a few renegades to round things out. Judon and Dugger fill the bill, IMO.

Rookie Barmore got plenty of playing time, despite Bill Belichick's habit of making rookies wait. And according to PFF he was "far and away the most productive rookie interior defender." He played nearly 600 snaps and pressured the quarterback 48 times, second on the team to Judon. 

Special Teams

Most Valuable Special Teams Player: Keith Folk

Honorable Mention: none 

Opening day of the 2020 season, Nick Folk missed a 45 yard field goal. 33 games later he hasn't missed one from fewer than 50 yards -- a streak of 55 straight kicks. He's been money, with some of his misses this year being ridiculous kicks (the 56 yarder in the rain against Tampa Bay comes to mind).

Special teams sucked this year, so no honorable mention :P

Most Improved Special Teams Player: Cody Davis

Honorable Mention: none

Cody Davis changed numbers in the off-season, switching from #30 to #2. It worked.

He led the team with 16 special teams tackles, topping even longtime special teams Pro Bowler Matthew Slater. He had just 9 last season, so apparently the number change helped :D

Special Teams Newcomer of the Year: none

Honorable Mention: none

Again, special teams on the whole were subpar, and terrible for a Belichick coached team. The Patriots spend too much money on special teamers not to get better performance out of this unit. Might be time to hire a ST coach with actual experience... their current one has been in the league about 12 minutes.

Summary

2021 was better than 2020 for sure. But if last weekend's games show anything it's that the Patriots have a long way to go to catch up to Buffalo or Kansas City.

Statistical oddity: Folk's streak of 55 straight made field goals of 50 yards or less is just one short of the NFL record, held by Tampa Bay's Ryan Succup. The oddity is that Tampa is the team that cut Folk in 2017, so he could be available to kick for the Patriots.

Non-statistical oddity: There have only been two players in NFL history who's first name started with "Jakob," and the Patriots currently have *both* of them: Jakobi Meyers and fullback Jakob Johnson. In fact, they have both been on the Patriots roster for the last three years.

The odds that a single team would have the only two similarly named players in NFL history on the roster for three consecutive seasons is roughly 0.000000125%, based on 25,682 players who ever played, the number of overall NFL seasons, and the chances the only two of them would be on the same team for three consecutive years.

Maybe some statistician can run the actual numbers for me, but until they do, I'm sticking with that number :D

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

PPS. Trivia answer: Dallas' Dak Prescott completed 67.8% of his passes as a rookie in 2016.

Bills Destroy Patriots 47-17

The Patriots playoff run came to an abrupt halt with a crushing 47-17 defeat at the hands of division rival Buffalo. The loss knocks them out of the post-season. And the scope of the loss calls into question how far into their rebuild they really are.

This one was over early. The Bills scored on their first drive, got an end zone interception that ended a Patriots threat, and drove that possession down for another score 10 plays later. In fact, the Bills didn't punt in the entire game -- the second straight game against the Patriots without a single punt. (Last time they got a bunch of fourth-down conversions, this time they never *got* to a fourth down.)

There is a clear talent disparity between the two teams. Buffalo is young, hungry, and one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. The Patriots are old, slow, seemingly less hungry, more injured, and based strictly on player talent probably shouldn't have been in the playoffs.

But despite that, the magnitude of this loss falls first on the coaching. The Bills shredded the Pats defense for two straight games, yet there weren't many adjustments or new wrinkles to slow them down. They mostly rushed four, mostly played zone, and mostly got killed on underneath routes and occasional long throws.

By the end of this game they couldn't stop the run, short passes, medium passes, or long passes. And unless I'm missing something, there isn't anything else allowed on offense.

In past years, I would blast opposing coaches who wouldn't adjust even though they got beaten year after year. One I remember distinctly was former head coach of Jacksonville, Jack Del Rio. He would use the same soft zone game after game and the Patriots would destroy that defense game after game.

In 2007 Tom Brady completed 26 of 28 passes and one of the misses was a Wes Welker drop. Yet Del Rio would never change, stubbornly trotting out his same old defense to get destroyed every single time.

That's how I see the Patriots against the Bills. Three weeks ago they did nothing to slow down the Bills offense, not forcing a single punt. And last night they trotted out the same old defense and got dominated again.

Before the game I wrote that they needed to do some zero-safety blitzes, to make Bills QB Josh Allen get rid of the ball quickly and to take away his scrambling and running lanes. They didn't even try that once. The probably didn't have the personnel to pull it off. But they could have at least given it a shot.

It isn't as if they don't have that defense in their arsenal. Belichick was showing it two weeks ago on Patriots All Access when breaking down the Dolphins game -- and showing how then defensive coordinator Brian Flores ran it in the Patriots 2018 Super Bowl win.

Seven touchdowns on seven possessions means you need to try *something*. But the Patriots never did. The Pats converted 7 of 14 third downs, but the Bills only faced 7 third downs. The Patriots went 4 of 4 on fourth down, but the Bills never even faced a fourth down.

As for the players on the field, in a loss this lopsided it was mostly all bad. Probably the best thing you can say is the young players got a taste of what playoff football is like. Maybe they'll be better prepared for the intensity the next time they are on that stage.

How bad was the defense. When your top five tacklers were in the secondary, that tells you the D-line and linebackers couldn't stop anything before it got started. I recall bad plays by most every linebacker and secondary player, and the defensive line just got pushed back and gashed over and over.

Mat Judon is obviously hurt, Ja'Whaun Bentley will always be a limited player, Dont'a Hightower looks cashed, and Kyle Van Noy had more hits in that Dunkin' Donuts commercial than in the game.

The defensive backfield would have looked a lot different if they'd kept star corner Stephon Gilmore or if Jonathan Jones hadn't gotten hurt. J.C. Jackson is up for a big payday, but his play the last two Bills games (and frankly against Miami) has exposed issues with his play.

The offense struggled to run early, gave up too much QB pressure, and the receivers had trouble getting separation. There are pieces here that can help as the Patriots build toward becoming a contender again: both young running backs, receivers Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, and Jakobi Meyers. But most of the rest of the weapons can hit the road -- including fullback Jacob Johnson, he of the stone hands, false start penalty, and missed assignment on the blocked punt against Indy.

And let's not let Mac Jones off the hook. On his first INT he never looked off the safety. And the second one was a throw right into coverage -- which was popped up and picked. He's young and still has a lot of growth ahead of him. But he was not nearly good enough to compete in this game.

As if to prove Bill Belichick's wisdom about turnovers, Jones tossed just 3 picks in the Patriots 10 wins, but he threw 12 in their 8 losses (including last night).

Where does that leave us? Trying to forget a playoff beating like we haven't seen since Super Bowl XX versus Chicago. Mac Jones did accomplish something already that Tom Brady has never done -- lost a playoff game by 30 points.

Next week I'll have the regular season awards for 2021. And probably the week after I'll have an entry about how the team can best move forward toward improving in 2022.

Otherwise, you are free to enjoy (or envy) another Brady playoff run without fear -- you won't have to see the Patriots play the Bucs this post-season.

Biggest on-going concern: At the moment it's what Belichick does with his coaching staff. His special teams coach lacks experience and that area was a huge disappointment. Joe Judge is available, maybe time to bring him back. BB's son called the defensive signals -- and we saw how that went recently. And as always there are too many home-grown assistants and not enough outside perspectives.

Non-QB MVP: Bourne with 7 catches for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is a keeper; runs precise routes, blocks well on running plays, and competes for every ball and every yard.

Statistical oddity: If Brady wins the Super Bowl this year, he would have 38 total playoff victories. That will be more than any entire FRANCHISE has in NFL history! (Note: the only team with 37 victories currently is the Patriots -- in case you were wondering if this would motivate Brady. Also, Dallas or Pittsburgh are close enough that they could have 38 by the end of this season, too -- but not Green Bay, not enough games before they'd have to play the Bucs. And in my scenario, Brady and the Bucs would beat GB.)

Water-cooler wisdom: "Now I know how helpless all those teams in 2007 felt."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-8 & 0-1!

PPS. :(

Patriots Drop Season-Ender to Dolphins, 33-24

The Patriots played sloppy and from behind and couldn't get over the hump, losing 33-24 to the Dolphins in Miami. The loss means the Bills (who won anyway) are AFC East Champs and the Pats are the #6 seed in the AFC. Next up will be those aforementioned Bills, up in Buffalo, with a chance to advance on the line.

This game was emblematic of why the Patriots are not likely to go very far in the playoffs. For two decades, New England under Bill Belichick had certain features, most of which this team lacks. BB himself has said that more games are lost in the NFL than won. And the Pats myriad mistakes week after week lost them more than their fair share this year.

I planned to shellack the team for their poor play. But the more I thought about it, the more that seemed like punishing this team for the amazing success of past teams. That didn't feel fair.

It is difficult to win games in the NFL and tough to get into the playoffs. And rarely does a rookie quarterback lead a team to the post-season, but Mac Jones did just that. They improved on last year's 7-9 record with lots of free agent spending, a great draft, and steady development of their signal caller.

The epitaph of the Patriots 2021 season is yet to be written. But given their inconsistency they will undoubtedly be done sooner rather than later. They started the season 1-3 and finished the season 1-3. It was that 8-1 record in middle of the year that was so enticing, that got our hopes up so high.

Just a few weeks ago they beat Tennessee and held the first seed in the AFC. Since then, they are 2-3 and didn't force a single fumble in those five games. Two notes to keep expectations realistic: no rookie QB has ever gotten to the Super Bowl, and it's been 10 season since a team with a losing record down the stretch hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. (Trivia question: Can you name the team that finished 1-4 but still won it all that year? Answer below.)

So Mac Jones will get his playoff experience this year, one, two, or maybe three games. And then it'll be over and we'll be on to 2022. Could they catch lightning in a bottle like the 2018 team, you ask? Maybe, but probably not. That team was solid in special teams, had a great running attack, and had some guy named Brady at quarterback.

As for the Miami game, what a stinker. Center David Andrews had an "equipment issue" and had to be replaced for one snap; that snap was fumbled on the exchange. Lawrence Guy lined up improperly on a punt, giving the Dolphins new life and three free points a few plays later. The pick-six by Mac Jones on a "film study" play where Miami knew exactly what was coming.

Three, count 'em three, dropped interceptions. That's becoming a theme with these guys; lately they seem to drop more than they catch. The brutally bad personal foul on Brandon Bolden, though all he had to do was jump over the sliding punter and it would have been Pats ball at the Miami 43. You know, back when the game was still a game.

The team got gashed by the run-pass option, which is an updated version of the Wildcat. And twice when they had Miami in third-and-long, and there was no running back (so no RPO), they lost contain and Tua ran for first downs to kill them. The last of those came when they needed a stop to get one last chance late -- a chance that never came.

It's unclear whether the coaches didn't change scheme to attack the RPO or if the team just lacks the defensive speed to do so. Either way it was unacceptable, because they knew it was coming and had a week to plan.

The team probably doesn't have a Super Bowl run in them this year. They probably never did, despite the long winning streak. So enjoy every game you get. There is something fun about watching a team with nothing to lose and low expectations. IIRC that happened exactly 20 seasons ago in what turned out to be their first magical run.

Where does that leave us? The team finished the season 10-7, in the #6 seed (after the Raiders victory), and they travel to Buffalo this Saturday to take on the Bills in the season's rubber match. I wrote in the Season Preview that the Pats actually play Buffalo better in Buffalo. So it's not that bad that they are playing there; after all, they won the game up there and lost the one at home.

Biggest on-going concern: How slowly the offense seems to start. They can't afford to fall behind early next week or Buffalo could steamroll them. It's incumbent on Josh McDaniels to figure out how Buffalo's D will attack and have something ready to counter it.

Non-QB MVP: Wideout Jakobi Meyers, who had some sensational catches and ended up with 4 catches for 70 yards.

Statistical oddity: Punter Jake Bailey set team marks two years in a row. Last year he averaged a franchise-record 48.7 yards per punt. This year he tied for the franchise record by having three punts blocked. Any prediction of what record he'll tie or break next year?

Water-cooler wisdom: "Certainly not an AFC powerhouse, but once you're in the playoffs anything can happen."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-7 & 0-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer: the 2021 Baltimore Ravens went 1-4 in their last five games but pulled it together to win the Super Bowl

Patriots Lay Waste to the Jaguars 50-10

The Patriots destroyed the Jaguars 50-10, in a game not even as close as that 40-point margin would indicate. That victory, combined with a loss by the Dolphins, puts the Patriots in the post-season for the first time in the post-TB12 era. They remain in second in the AFC East, due to tie-breakers, and need a loss or tie by the Bills (who play the Jets) and a win over the Dolphins to claim the division crown.

This one was a laugher from the get-go. The Pats scored touchdowns on their first five possessions, and started 27 of their 34 first-half plays in Jaguars's territory. They converted 8-of-10 third downs and gained over 100 more yards both on the ground (181 to 80) and through the air (290 to 173). It was as thorough a beating as you'll see in the NFL.

Quarterback Mac Jones played great (22 of 30, 227 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs), the main running backs averaged 5 yards a carry and had 4 touchdowns, there were five receivers with multiple catches, the defense confused and feasted on a young quarterback (with 60% of his O-line starters out with COVID), and the coaches never gave the Jaguars a chance to get back into the game.

What else would you expect? All week the predictions were that this would be a get-right game for New England. The Jaguars are awful, they already fired their head coach, and they were ravaged by COVID for the game. So it shouldn't be a surprise that the Patriots steamrolled them.

But what was a surprise? There are four things that surprised me, all of which could have an impact on the team as they head toward the post-season. So rather than salivating over a game they were supposed to win, let's take a look at some developments that could help/hurt as they move into the playoffs.

First, practice squad wide receiver Kristian Wilkerson. He was elevated to the team and played in place of healthy scratch N'Keal Harry. And he played very well, hauling in four passes for 42 yards and two touchdowns. (For perspective, Harry has twice caught two touchdowns in entire seasons -- and that is the best total of his career!)

Why is this important? Because the Patriots desperately need another passing game threat. The previous week, wideout Nelson Agholor was out and Kendrick Bourne was limited after returning from a concussion. So when the Bills blanketed Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry, the Pats needed N'Keal Harry to step up and make plays.

But Harry didn't. He had one catch on six targets, dropped an easy first-down conversion, and then popped the next pass up in the air for an interception. When the playoffs start, the Patriots could not count on Harry. And if any of the receivers were hurt, they'd be in trouble against good teams.

However, if Wilkerson can at least be a threat in the post-season, chances are he'll see the other team's fourth- or fifth-best corners. If the Patriots had to depend on Harry they'd be in trouble. But at least Wilkerson showed something, something other teams can either work to defend or the Patriots can take advantage of.

I've written often in the past that the Patriots offense works best when they have a good slot receiver, a good tight end, and at least four total threats in the passing game. They don't really have a great slot guy. But if Wilkerson can do better than Harry, they would have four real arial threats.

Second, the reps at running back. Once again, Damien Harris was limited with a hamstring injury. He had just nine carries for 35 yards, though he did score two touchdowns and ran well and with power. It's possible they are going easy on him, not wanting to risk an injury before the playoffs.

Rhamondre Stevenson played very well in relief of Harris, going for 107 yards on 19 carries and two touchdowns of his own. And it's great the team has a backup of his capabilities.

But Harris' hammy is concerning, because they have almost no running back depth. And as the games get colder and the conditions worsen, it was believed they would become a run-heavy team -- to control the clock and wear down other teams, as well as to take pressure off their rookie QB in his first post-season.

If Harris can't shoulder the load, that puts a ton of pressure on Stevenson. The drop-off in talent from him to Brandon Bolden is massive. J.J. Taylor returned from the COVID list two games ago but hasn't seen the field since. So the thinness at running back could well be a concern going forward.

Third, J.C. Jackson's admission. During the game broadcast, the announcers stated that J.C. Jackson confessed to not being properly focused the previous week against Buffalo. This is surprising and refreshing, as athletes rarely admit such things but it was nice to see Jackson take ownership of why he didn't play well against the Bills.

Realizing that he had missed two big INT chances in that game, Jackson studied additional film and vowed to lock things down this week. Which he did. He had a nice interception and nearly had another. And he also tied for the team lead with four tackles.

Why is this important? The Patriots will need Jackson at the top of his game if they expect to make any noise in the playoffs. With Stephon Gilmore gone, if Jackson can't lock down his man, it would force too many players to adjust on defense -- and that is bound to leave more holes in the run and pass D.

Maybe it wasn't the admission that was important, but his response. Watch him closely next week. He'll likely take on one of the top two receivers, and it'll be important to see if he can lock them down or at least reduce their impact on the game.

And fourth, yet another blocked kick. I know, a missed extra point in a 40-point victory sort of falls through the cracks. But once the playoffs begin, there won't be any patsies on the schedule. And this team will have to struggle to make it through every game.

In close games, a missed assignment on a kick can be disastrous. The blocked punt/touchdown probably cost them any realistic chance in the Colts game. And bear in mind that they are likely looking at road playoff games, where crowd noise makes communication on kicking plays even more difficult.

This is their fourth blocked kick of the season, three punts and that extra point. They've needed to shore up their special teams all year, but haven't done it yet. So when the playoffs come, keep your fingers crossed when the Pats drop into punt or field goal formations.

Where does that leave us? 10-6 and in the playoffs is great. Buffalo came from behind to take care of business, so the division remains out of the Patriots grasp for now. Believe it or not the Patriots could end up with the first seed or the last seed, depending on the results next week.

It's good to be in the tournament. But they need to take care of business in Miami next week so they aren't stuck playing Kansas City or Tennessee in the first round. Those would be really bad matchups for them.

Biggest on-going concern. For this week it's probably their overall futility in Miami. Even under BB they are just 9-11 in South Florida. In fact they lost there just last year, in a game they needed to stay in the playoff hunt. So for this week, tighten things up and get a win in Miami.

Non-QB MVP: Wide receiver Kendrick Bourne, who caught five of six passes thrown his way for 15.2 yards a catch and also ran twice for 17 yards. He also took some tough hits along the way.

Statistical oddity: Twice this season the Patriots have put up at least 50 points in a game. The 31 other teams have only done it *once* combined. (Trivia question: Which team notched the other game of 50-or-more points? Hint: it happened very recently. Answer below.)

Bonus oddity: Bill Belichick has never lost a game in Foxboro against a rookie quarterback. After topping the Jags and Trevor Lawrence, he is 15-0 in such games.

Water-cooler wisdom: "I bet even Kristian Wilkerson didn't have himself in his fantasy league."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-6!

PPS. Trivia answer:

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The Dallas Cowboys put up 56 points against Washington just last week.

Bills Thrash Patriots 33-21

The Patriots lost a huge game to Buffalo, dropping the home contest 33-21. The loss vaults the Bills to the AFC East lead and drops the Patriots from second to sixth in the AFC playoff race. Next up is a winnable game against Jacksonville at Gillette, and at this point the team needs to get a win to control whether they even make they playoffs.

Two weeks ago the Pats were on top of the world. They rode a victory in Buffalo to the first seed in the AFC, and it all appeared to be in front of them: playoff bye, home games throughout, and an easier path to the Super Bowl. Now sitting with the sixth seed, the question is, how did it all come apart so quickly. The answer is simple and frustrating...

The Patriots have become the team they used to beat with regularity. For two decades they rose to good competition and just played well enough to allow bad teams to beat themselves. Over and over they used that formula to win division titles, get playoff byes, and ride their regular-season success to Super Bowls and championships.

But now it's the *Patriots* who beat themselves. Coaching blunders. Poorly timed penalties. Turnovers. Bad situational play. Special teams gaffes. Dropped passes. Dropped interceptions. Lack of adjustments. Undisciplined players. When it comes to the losing formula, the Patriots seem to have it all.

Here is a quick list of some of those very problems on display this afternoon.

At 10-7 Bills, quarterback Mac Jones threw a nice, easy pass to a wide open N'Keal Harry, who just flat out dropped it. Jones' first interception came on the next play, when the linebacker was standing directly between him and his target. N'Keal, catch the damned ball. And Mac, pull that ball down and then throw it away -- it was only second down.

Late in the first half they had Buffalo facing a fourth-and-seven. But they had been aggressive so there was a chance they'd go for it. So not knowing if they'd be getting the ball back, the Patriots called a timeout to save time -- but Buffalo still had the ball. Huh?

During that timeout, apparently no one told rookie Christian Barmore that the Bills were going to try to draw the Patriot offside to make it fourth-and-two. Barmore bit on the hard count, the penalty was assessed, the Bills got the first down, and then a touchdown.

On the next possession the Pats were driving for a score before the half. But after the referee picked up a late-hit flat, Patriots tackle Trent Brown lost his mind and cost his team 15 yards with an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. It would have been second-and-three at their 47, but instead it was second-and-18 at their 32. Two plays later, punt.

7:30 left in the game and the Pats somehow had clawed their way back to within one score. Bills QB Josh Allen floated a pass over his receiver's head and it was right in the hands of corner JC Jackson. Who amazingly dropped the ball. Jackson has more interceptions than anyone since he entered the league, but when they really needed one to get the ball back and score, he dropped it.

(This comes a week after the Patriots dropped two potential interceptions that could have turned the Colts game in their direction. And yes, Jackson had one of those miscues, too.)

All game long the Bills killed New England with short zone passes, and the linebackers continued deep drops or were out of position play after play. And with Josh Allen making hay running from the pocket, there was never an adjustment to run blitz and get the ball out of his hands. In the old days they would have adjusted mid-drive. Now apparently halftime isn't long enough to adjust.

Their kickoffs are all over the map; but there is never a situation where you kick the ball to the 15 yard-line on purpose. But the Pats did just that, and it was returned to the 35. If you want to force a return, you kick it inside the 5, not inside the 20.

There were multiple plays where the Patriots defensive secondary was pointing, yelling, and repositioning players even as the ball was snapped. They were fortunate the Bills didn't rack them on those plays, because several times Buffalo receivers dropped easy passes for big gains.

Lastly, their situational awareness was for crap. One play ended with a late hit by the Bill, but center David Andrews rushed in to jaw it up with the defender -- and got an offsetting unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. And the Patriots converted only 1 of 10 third downs, forcing them to go for it on fourth down six times!

It's tough to say what was the worst part of their performance. On offense, Mac Jones missed multiple short receivers, sometimes whiffing on throws to his *outlet* receivers. The receivers dropped some easy passes, and tight end Jonnu Smith had a critical holding call. And veteran running back Brandon Bolden looked lost at times.

On defense, the linebackers couldn't cover anyone in the short zones and didn't tackle well, either. The secondary played too much soft zone. And the pass rushers lost outside and inside contain repeatedly, allowing Allen to run wild.

Only the run defense and offense did well. But without the gale force winds of a few weeks ago, the rest of the team was exposed.

How the Patriots have gotten to this point is another article. However, unless they clean up those type of mistakes, they aren't going anywhere in the playoffs, if they even make it there.

Maybe last year was the salary cap reset, and this year was the roster reset. But they'll have to improve their talent and get rid of players who keep screwing up in little ways. Because all those little gaffes have lead to two straight losses and a season teetering on the brink.

Where does that leave us? The Patriots still have two winnable games down the stretch, next week against Jacksonville and in Miami to finish the regular season. If they run the table, the number crunchers at FiveThirtyEight.com give them only a 23% chance of the Bills slipping up and giving them the division crown (link).

If they win the division, they'd host at least one, and possibly two playoff games. If not, chances are they'd be on the road for the post-season -- again, assuming they make it.

Biggest on-going concern: Aside from the accumulation of little issues, it's mostly health related. Receiver Nelson Agholor was out with a concussion and running back Rhamondre Stevenson was on the COVID list. Without those two, the skill positions are strained, and the Bills just double-covered the two fave targets and assumed the run wouldn't beat them.

Perhaps the biggest difference in the game yesterday was the play of the backup receivers. N'Keal Harry played in place of Agholor and he had 1 catch (on 6 targets) for 9 yards. Isaiah McKenzie replaced Buffalo's Cole Beasley and he had 11 catches for 125 yards and a touchdown.

Pretty stark comparison.

Non-QB MVP: It was Damien Harris, who ran for 103 yards on 18 carries and scored all three Patriots touchdowns.  He ran tough and smart and also had some nice blitz pickup.

Statistical oddity: Mac Jones has 3 interceptions in the Patriots nine wins this year, and 9 interceptions in their six losses. Time to double-down on throwing it away and living to fight another play.

Water-cooler wisdom: "The sky isn't falling, but my opinion of the Patriots coaching staff is."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 9-6!

Pats Fall To Colts 27-17

The Patriots fell behind early and lost to Indy 27-17 last night. The defeat leaves them with a 9-5 record, still good for a one-game lead over the Bills in the AFC East. But with the Kansas City win last Thursday (and losses today from Tennessee and Baltimore), they sit at #2 in the AFC playoff seeding. Next up is a home date with the Bills on Sunday.

This one got away from them early and by the time their offense got on track it was too late to come back. Early on the defense looked overmatched, especially inept stopping the run. Special teams made the biggest mistake of the game, leading directly to seven points for Indy. And the offense was stale and turned the ball over twice in 4 minutes of game time, including a killer red zone pick near the end of the first half.

I hesitate to read too much into this game, for two main reasons. First, the Patriots offense traditionally starts slow the week after a bye (both regular season and playoffs). It's such a pattern that I wrote this when breaking down the schedule in September, "I expect the Pats offense to start slow (as it traditionally does) after the Bye. Put it in as the Patriots fourth loss."

Second, it's a truism in the NFL that a home team that needs a late-season game the most tends to end up winning. The Colts needed to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Patriots were less desperate and on the road, and it showed in the level of energy and focus, particularly in the first half.

The truly unfortunate thing is that as well as the Colts played, the Patriots could have kept the game much closer in the first half and had a real chance to win in the fourth quarter. How could they have done that, you ask? Here are five things that would have made for a closer game:

1. On their first possession, the Patriots drove into Colts territory, then this happened: five-yard penalty on Shaq Mason (illegally downfield on a pass), then inexplicably a delay of game coming out of that penalty play, which lead to a third and long and a 15-yard sack. They had it on the Indy 47, but ended up losing 21 yards before punting from their own 32.
2. Jacob Johnson could have actually slowed down Matthew Adams on the Patriots second punt. Instead, he missed his assignment, Adams blocked the punt, and the Colts recovered it in the end zone for a touchdown. It was a bad miss by Johnson, and the Patriots third blocked punt this season -- way too many for any season.
3. After the 2:00 warning, the Patriots faced a second-and-one at the Colts 13 yard line, with a chance to make it a 17-7 game at the half. Instead, Janu Smith committed a false start, and with second-and-six they threw the ball and Mac Jones tossed an easy interception.
4. After the half, literally six plays later, Jones threw his second pick, another ill-advised throw, giving Indy the short field. The Pats defense held firm, and the Colts field goal attempt was wide right -- yay! Wait, not so fast, defensive offsides gave them another chance, and this time it was good :(
5. After a Jones touchdown got the Pats on the board, they drove it again to the Indy two yard line. But on third and goal, Michael Onwenu got a false start penalty, and they couldn't convert on third-and-seven -- so they had to settle for a field goal. Note: a touchdown there and it's a one-score game; the field goal made it closer but it was still a two-possession game at that point.
6. Bonus: not to mention dropped potential interceptions by J.C. Jackson and Jamie Collins (the easier of the two), the poor run defense on the last Colts' touchdown (67 yards!), and numerous other penalties (eight accepted for 50 yards) that cost the team time after time.

I won't go into too much detail on this one, because it was a total team loss. The entire team stunk up the joint in the first half, and when both the offense and defense woke up in the second half, penalties and the interception killed any chance to get back into it.

This was not Jones' finest hour, completing just 58% of his passes (26 of 45) with 2 TDs and those 2 killer INTs. The thinness at running back is showing; they gained just 39 yards, which is two fewer than the receivers and quarterback gained on the ground. And for all the beef up front on defense, the run D was poor, giving up gains on almost every rush (only 3 of 39 running plays went for a loss) and 226 yards on the ground.

The passing defense was great. Indy QB Carson Wentz was 5 of 12 for 57 yards and threw three interception-worthy passes, though only one was picked. (Trivia question: when was the last time a team beat the Patriots completing five or fewer passes? Hint, it was in the playoffs. Answer below.) But stopping the pass didn't help much with Jonathan Taylor running wild, including on his 67-yard touchdown to seal the game.

Coaching was not the Patriots strong suit in this one. The Colts first half strategy was clear: run blitz and if it was a pass then just go to the quarterback. But offensive coordinator McDaniels didn't take advantage of that with quick-hit passes, screens, or play action -- he called run after run into the teeth of the defense.

And on defense, it took too long to adjust to stopping Taylor. It was apparent Wentz wasn't going to win the game against the Patriots strong pass D. So where were the changes to slow down an MVP candidate back?

And as for special teams coaching: a blocked punt for touchdown, the offside to give Indy another shot at a field goal, and the bad pooch kickoff by Nick Folk at the end of the game (much too short) -- those are all really bad mistakes. It has me wondering if their two special teams assistants are too green for the job. Between them they have four years of experience. Just sayin'.

Where does that leave us? 9-5 is good but doesn't keep pace with KC's 10-4. The Patriots own tiebreakers over all the AFC contenders, so if they end up tied they'll get the coveted playoff bye (only one bye per conference this year). Now they need the Chiefs to slip up and have to run the table to make that happen.

Next Sunday they can lock up the AFC East with a win over the Bills. So same as this past week, the other team needs it more -- but different from last week, it'll be at Gillette. They need to take care of this game unless they want a dogfight for the division crown for the rest of the season.

Biggest on-going concern: The injuries at running back are becoming a problem. JJ Taylor was out with COVID, now Damien Harris has a hamstring injury -- that puts a lot of pressure on rookie Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden.

Non-QB MVP: no player performed well enough to name an MVP.

Statistical oddity: Jones had as many completions against the Bills as he had TDs and INTs against the Colts (2 of each).

Water-cooler wisdom: "Beat Buffalo this weekend and you win the division. Worry about everything else later."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 9-5!

PPS. Trivia answer: the Baltimore Ravens beat the Patriots 33-14 in January of 2010, when QB Joe Flacco went 4 of 10 for 34 yards (and an INT). Similarly to last night's game, the Ravens won with a really strong running attack.