Just a heart-breaking loss. The Patriots played so well in all three phases of the game; yet some bad coaching and more of the usual from Peyton Manning left the Pats on the short end of a 35-34 score in Indy. The loss did not change their position in the division, with a Jets loss the Patriots are still two games up in the AFC East. But it effectively ends any chance to get home-field throughout the playoffs and hurts their chances for a first-round playoff bye. It also gives the Colts an outside chance at breaking the Patriots record of 21-straight regular season wins.
It is time to tell it like it is, folks. The Colts are now officially in Bill Belichick's head. He and his staff put together a great game plan and ran it to perfection for the first three quarters and two plays. They hit Peyton Manning, disrupted the timing of the receivers and the offense, and intercepted Manning twice. Meanwhile, the offense scored on big plays to Randy Moss, mixed in the run to keep the clock moving, and the team held a 31-14 lead with 14:00 left. Indy hadn't scored since the middle of the second quarter, and it looked like one more touchdown would seal the deal.
But for some reason, they went conservative on offense, running time and again from obvious running formations in obvious running situations. By any measure, the results were less than stellar: 5 plays for 1 yard. It was maddening to watch the Colts overload to stop the run and never see the Patriots run-fake and pass over the top or down the middle. There were eight (count 'em *8*) Colts playing the run... a play-action pass there changes field position and probably gets you the one score you need to win.
And all of this came after over-thinking in the first quarter and deciding to challenge a Reggie Wayne catch with no evidence that it would be overturned. There were also wasted timeouts: one due to offensive confusion; one immediately after change of possession late in the game; and one just before the ill-fated fourth down try at the two-minute warning.
Oh, and speaking of that fourth down play. There will understandably be a lot of attention on that one decision, and Belichick should be criticized for it. It was an apparent panic move, given that the Colts scored a touchdown on their last drive, in just 107 seconds. But at that point you have to play the odds. Your defense might be gassed, but unless you have a sure fire, guaranteed play that will get you the first down for certain, you have to punt the ball. And by the way, if you have a "sure fire, guaranteed to get you the first down for certain play," you run it on third down. That way, if you don't get the first down, you can punt it.
So put this loss squarely where it belongs; on the head coach. He needs to get over the Colts and treat those games like any other games. Manning is a great quarterback, so don't ever go conservative on offense, make smart choices with your challenges and timeouts, take advantage of any turnovers you get, and just play smart. The Colts are good, but they aren't as good as your team. Just don't over-think it and you will get the result you want.
There were a few good things. Quite a few, in fact. Randy Moss played a monster game. 9 receptions for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns, one of them coming despite obvious pass interference on the Colts safety (not called -- SHOCKER). At least three of his catches converted important third-downs, and Chris Baker helped in that regard with two catches, *both* of which netted first downs. Wes Welker was as reliable as usual; though he only tied Moss for most receptions (9 for 94 yards).
And receiver Julian Edelman gets the Toughness Award of the week. He played with a broken arm that was so injured that after he caught a touchdown, he spiked the ball with his *left* hand. So to recap, he played football with an arm too sore to spike the ball. Sounds like a pretty tough guy to me.
Tom Brady had a great game... right up until the coaches put the shackles on the offense. Tough to complain about a 110.7 QB rating and 3 touchdowns. But the one mistake was an end zone interception to start the third quarter. The Pats were moving the ball crisply down the field, with plays of 6, 5, 15, and 14 yards. So there was no reason to go for a 35 yard bomb at that point, and even though the safety came from the other side of the field, it was into double coverage.
And speaking of red zone turnovers, Laurence Maroney picked a really bad time for the second fumble of his career (and first this year). He coughed it up at the Colts 1 yard line, giving away at least three points and possibly seven. That gave the Pats red zone/end zone turnovers on two consecutive drives, and even still they needed a coaching meltdown to lose. But the Patriots did end up with 113 yards rushing and a 4.0 average. But they need to be more realistic about their running game. They can't line up in the I-formation and expect to blow teams off the ball and control the clock with the run. Most of their yardage against Indy came out of the shotgun on inside hand-offs to Kevin Faulk (12 carries for 79 yards), who had an outstanding day. That is who they are; a pass-first team that can run well if they use deception properly.
The O-line did a very good job; young Sebastian Vollmer and oft-maligned Nick Kazcur playing very well. Dan Koppen returned from injury and did an okay job, pouncing on a Brady fumble. And even though he was flagged once, it was reassuring to have him out there. Dan Connolly did a nice job stepping in against Miami last week, but in the Indy dome with all that noise and pressure, you'd rather have the veteran.
The defense... what a night for the defense. The plan was obvious from the start, hit anything that moves, and if it moves again, hit it again. It was old style Patriots football -- slow the receivers at the line and get up the field to the quarterback. They only got one sack but they hit Manning four other times and put a beat-down on Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne, shutting them both down for a long stretch of the game.
The secondary played brilliantly. Leigh Bodden whacked Pierre Garcon at the line and shadowed him down the field, holding him to 3 catches out of 11 passes in his direction. Unfortunately, Reggie Wayne (10 catches for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns) did some serious damage against Jonathan Wilhite, but with the Colts you have to pick you poison. Wilhite got one interception, as did Bodden, and the secondary clearly did its job in holding the Colts down for most of the game.
The linebackers were a depleted bunch before the game began, and Tully Banta-Cain was injured early on. But they came through just fine. Derrick Burgess was flying at the quarterback all game long. The Patriots should not ask him to do anything against the run; make him a designated pass rusher and set him loose. Because every time he tried to cover the outside edge he got nowhere near Manning. Jerod Mayo still isn't quite back, but is making real strides, especially in pass coverage. And Gary Guyton did an outstanding job jamming Dallas Clark at the line to slow him up.
The D-line was... well, it was strange. They started the game with two defensive linemen on the field (and probably Derrick Burgess counted as a third). Vince Wilfork and Mike Wright started -- Ty Warren and Jarvis Green were out with injuries. And the young guys, Myron Pryor and Ron Brace played some, though not a lot. The Patriots simply played too much nickle coverage with too few players on the D-line to effectively grade that part of the team. I suppose I could watch the game again to figure it out, but doing that might put me into a depressed funk, so I won't do it. No... I *won't* -- you can't make me. You *can't*!!
The special teams were just fine. Wes Welker had a great punt return that the Pats cashed for a touchdown. And the coverage was terrific, right from the opening kickoff. I would say the Pats special teams outplayed the Colts -- though neither gained a huge advantage from the kicking game.
So where does that leave us? Well, tough a loss as it was, the Patriots are still in control of the AFC East, and can pretty much put it away with wins over the Jets and Dolphins in two of their next three games. The #1 AFC seed is out of the question, with the Colts now holding essentially a 4-game lead. But a first round bye is still possible -- they trail the Bengals by one game and are tied with Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Denver (though the Broncos hold the head-to-head tie-breaker). So after they somehow shake this one off, the Pats have to regain their focus and take care of the Jets in Foxboro.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: Against the Colts, Patriots punter Chris Hanson allowed no touchbacks or return yards for the fourth time this year, and the second week in a row. The highest total for any other NFL punter this season is 2.
Trivia question, name any of the five punters who have done that this year (answer below).
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Guess we'll have to hope for a rematch in January."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 6-3!
PPS. Trivia Answer...
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Steve Weatherford (New York Jets)
Matt Turk (Houston Texans)
Pat McAfee (Indianapolis Colts)
Brad Maynard (Chicago Bears)
and Thomas Morstead (New Orleans)
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