This game was too close early, with the Patriots leaving points on the board in the first quarter, and ending that quarter behind 7-3. Then they scored on six of their next eight possessions, while the Broncos scored on only two of their next eight, and the rout was on. And with 94 points in the last two games, the offense is obviously rounding into form.
Quarterback Tom Brady threw his first interception in since week four, on a tipped ball, no less. He was mostly magnificent, finishing 33 of 53, 333 yards, 4 touchdowns, that 1 INT, and a 97.4 passer rating. And even though he was sacked just once, he used movement in the pocket and quick releases to avoid sometimes very quick pressure (Denver hit him eight times in the game).
The only problem with Brady's game was his misfiring on several "wheel" routes to running back Shane Vereen, and several off-target passes that were slightly behind receivers (including on his interception). But given that the Broncos defense is one of the best in the league, not a bad day chucking the ball.
The receivers were all terrific. Tight end Rob Gronkowski and receiver Julian Edelman pulled in 9 catches and 1 touchdown each, with 105 and 89 receiving yards, respectively. Gronkowski is a beast these days, plowing through defenders after the reception, and making one of the catches of the season, a one-handed grab at the goal line. And Edelman was unstoppable in the slot, coming up with five big first downs.
Danny Amendola also had two big catches for first downs, indicating the Broncos don't have great slot-receiver coverage. And Brandon LaFell had 6 grabs for 43 yards and a touchdown. In fact, maybe the most important numbers are 9, 9, 6, 5 -- the number of receptions of the top-four Patriots receivers. They are extremely difficult to defend when they spread the ball around like that.
The running game left a lot to be desired. The Patriots squeezed out 66 yards on 25 carries, for a paltry 2.6ypc. They were also tackled for a loss four times, and got just 3 rushing first downs on the day (even Brady failed on his patented QB sneak). Jonas Gray and Vereen had nowhere to go, several times beating their linemen to the hole, which usually meant there was no hole there.
Which brings us to the continuing saga of the offensive line. Still too much inside push, although that is getting better. Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder, and Bryan Stork were all beaten at specific points in the game, and the inability to complete "wheel" routes indicates that the O-line didn't do it's job on the outside. Overall they are improving, and given the level of competition, this was a decent game. But it isn't perfect, and those flaws will look a lot worse against the Colts in their version of the TunderDome in two weeks.
It was a different story on defense, where the Patriots coaching staff deserves a lot of credit for how they mixed things up. They started in a 3-3-5 defense and kept the five DBs on the field most of the game. It was a great plan of complimentary defense, with just enough pressure on the quarterback to force quick throws, enough pass coverage to ensure those throws had to be pinpoint, and enough discipline to limit the running attack to 43 yards and 2.5ypc.
I've never seen lineman Rob Ninkovich drop into coverage so much, nor have I seen the team throw so many last-second blitzes up the middle. And they rarely employ the zone-blitz, but used it to great effect on the first interception.
Ninkovich and Vince Wilfork starred on the defensive line. Ninkovich ended up with the INT, a pass defended, and 3 tackles. And Wilfork's 2 tackles don't tell the entire story -- he clogged the middle and pushed the pile toward Manning all night long. The Broncos offensive line is very good, so just battling them to a stalemate in the running game and getting some pressure out of the front three is a big deal. It allowed the Patriots to do so much with the defense.
Linebacker Jamie Collins played the Swiss-Army Knife on Sunday. He dropped into coverage, had a tackle for a loss, got a huge stop on a third-down that forced a punt, and he sliced through the center of the Broncos O-line multiple times, putting quick pressure on Peyton Manning to throw the ball before he was ready. Linebacker Dont'a Hightower did the same, but to a lesser degree of effectiveness than Collins. And newcomer Akeem Ayers got the Patriots only sack, along with a QB hit.
The secondary play was difficult to decipher. Corner Darrelle Revis got five tackles and defended a pass, but he was in the area for multiple long pass completions. Corner Malcolm Butler was repeatedly burned, but came up big with a pass defended late when the Broncos were trying to claw back into the game. Safety Patrick Chung had three passes defended and eight tackles, but he and safety Devin McCourty both choked on a touchdown to Denver tight end Julius Thomas. And corner Brandon Browner had an INT and a pass defended, but he continues to pile up the penalty yards.
Maybe the lesson here is that it was never going to be perfect against Peyton Manning. But the corners and safeties did their best when they had chances, and held the Broncos to 23 points, despite the dizzying numbers put up by the Broncos. Maybe no team will shut down all those receivers; the best they can do is survive them.
On special teams, Julian Edelman set a new Patriots record with his fourth punt-return touchdown, a long and winding run that put the Pats up 20-7 in the second quarter. And on this very windy day, kicker Stephen Gostkowski was a perfect 3-3 on field goals, and did a decent job kicking off, even into the stiff breeze. This is quite the contrast to the Broncos special teams, which had a difficult day handling the elements, yet again (remember last year's muffed punt to lose the game in OT?).
The coaching staff put together a great game plan. They mixed in 7-man fronts with 3-man pass rushes, delayed blitzes, stunts and games up front, zone blitzes, man-to-man press coverage, short cover-two, deep cover-three, and even the old "meandering" defense, where players wander around near the line and then attack at the snap. And on offense, they exploited mismatches at slot receiver and tight end, and when the Broncos adjusted, they threw to a single-covered LaFell outside the numbers.
So where does this leave us? Right where you'd expect by week nine -- leading the AFC East and the AFC. The Pats have a brutal schedule coming up, with tilts against division leaders Indy and Detroit, and road games against 5-4 San Diego and 5-3 Green Bay. If they survive the next month, they have three AFC East games to end the season, two of them at home, so that should be fine.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: The last time the Patriots scored 94 points in consecutive home games, the Denver Broncos were the second team they beat. (Trivia question: name the year, and if you can, the other team involved... answer below.)
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Broncos really had eight turnovers: two interceptions, a punt-return touchdown, a missed field goal, and 0-4 on fourth downs. Not going to win very often like that."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 7-2!
PPS. Trivia answer:
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In 2011, the Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills 49-21 to close out the regular season. They then drubbed the Tim Tebow Broncos, 45-10 in the divisional round of the playoffs, scoring exactly 94 points in two consecutive home games.
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