There was a lot to like and some things not to like in this one. Here is a quick list.
Positives
The running game looked a lot stronger, even though Buffalo had a decent run defense. Sony Michel led the team with 21 carries for 96 yards, Rex Burkhead pitched in 20 yards on 5 carries, as the team totaled 143 yards and 4.1 yard a carry. The offensive line opened up holes and got blocks to the second level. On many runs, the linemen were 5+ yards downfield, always a good sign.
QB Tom Brady had his best statistical day in three months: 26 of 33 (78.8%) for 271 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interceptions, no sacks, and a 111.0 QB rating. His throws were crisp and on target, he made good decisions, and he threw it away to avoid bad plays or losses. And it was most encouraging that he did it against the Bills. They entered the game with the second-best pass defense in the league.
The offensive line, which overall kept Brady clean (no sacks and only 4 QB hits) and opened up big holes in the running game. It was a bit of an odd switch of roles though; left tackle Isaiah Wynn wasn't as good as usual, while turnstyle-in-training Marshall Newhouse flourished in a move from left tackle to right tackle.
Everyone is buzzing about N'Keal Harry's emergence, and rightly so. But the rookie's two catches for 21 yards (and two runs for 18 yards) don't tell the entire story of the receiving corps. Here are the number of catches for those with multiple grabs in the game:
- Julian Edelman = 5
- Rex Burkhead = 4
- James White = 4
- Jakobi Meyers = 3
- Mohamed Sanu = 3
- Ben Watson = 3
- N'Keal Harry = 2
I've said it before, the Patriots are a very dangerous playoff opponent when they have diversity in their passing game and overall offense. And that's exactly what they had -- against one of the best NFL defenses, too boot.
The front seven bottled up the run nicely. The running backs of the Bills got just 49 yards on 16 carries, just over 3ypc. If not for QB runs, this would have been the highlight of the defense, but alas Josh Allen ran 7 times for 43 yards and made some big plays to keep drives going.
The Patriots performance on third-down was one of the great contrasts of the game. New England converted 50% of their third-downs (7 of 14) while Buffalo converted just 18% (2 of 11). That helped the Pats build an advantage of almost 18 minutes in time of possession (38:52 to 21:08).
I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Nick Folk's impressive 51-yard field goal. It was booted into the wind but had room to spare. For symmetry, the last time he hit a field goal that long was against the Patriots -- November 17, 2016, over three *years* ago! (Trivia Question #1: For which team did Folk kick that field goal? Answer below.)
Among the uneven secondary play, JC Jackson was a standout. He led the team with six tackles and knocked down two passes, including a potential game-tying or game-winning touchdown throw on the Bills last play. I'll get to the rest of the secondary coming right up...
Negatives
The secondary got burned far too often. They gave up deep passes of 25, 33, and 53 yards, and there was a short one that went for another 28. There was too much miscommunication and too many times corners or safeties just got flat-out beaten. And it would have looked a lot worse if Bills QB Josh Allen had hit a few open receivers. Almost no one was immune, and you would not expect this against a team the Patriots see twice a year. Very disappointing.
Coach Bill Belichick's decision to go for a first down late in the second quarter turned out disastrously. He could have punted it deep given the Bills a long field to travel with probably 28-seconds left. But instead, he went for it and failed, giving them the ball at their own 41-yard-line with two timeouts.
Ultimately, the Bills drove down the field and scored a touchdown just before the end of the half. But Belichick's decision was ill-advised. Many have said that if Sanu had made his block they would have had the first-down. But that ignores the risk/reward situation.
The way the Pats offense had been going, they could have expected to get a field goal at best from that drive. That was the potential reward. But the risk was exactly what happened; that the good field position would net the Bills a touchdown. And after a half dominating Buffalo, they went to the locker room tied, when the Patriots should have been up by 7 points. It was a bad risk/reward decision by the Hooded One.
Sanu played an awful game. He whiffed on the block on that aforementioned fourth-down play. And he fielded a punt he should never have been close to, risking a muff that would have changed momentum. Not sure if his ankle injury is still bothering him, but he's one of the players who will benefit from some time off if the Patriots get a playoff Bye.
Where does that leave us? One more win and the Patriots get their traditional week off before the playoffs. Miami is pretty terrible, and they almost never win important games at Foxboro. So if form holds, the Patriots will play their first post-season game on 1/11 or 1/12/2020. Here's hoping!
Biggest on-going issue: It's still the offense, though there were hopeful signs this week. The most underplayed issue is that there have been more game-operation problems with the Pats sideline than most years. But that is secondary to the offense at this point.
Non-Brady MVP: Rex Burkhead, despite his fumble. He gave the team a spark in both the run and pass games, and his 19.3 yards per catch is excellent on four catches.
Statistical oddity: Since the NFL realigned divisions in 2002, no team in the AFC East has won more games than the Patriots in any single year. The two seasons since then where the Patriots didn't win the division was because of tie-breakers.
(Trivia Question #2: name the quarterbacks to play the majority of the snaps for the two non-Patriots teams that won the AFC East since 2000. Answer below.)
Water-cooler wisdom: "A great game and a good win. One more good win and they get a week off."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 12-3!
PPS. Trivia Answer #1:
Folk kicked the 51-yarder for the New York Jets.
PPPS. Trivia answer #2:
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Trick question; only one quarterback turned the trick. Chad Pennington played the majority of the snaps for the 2002 Jets and the 2008 Dolphins, which are the only teams other than the Patriots to win the division in the last 19 seasons.
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